305 FXUS63 KLMK 021651 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1251 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Mainly dry with warming temperatures Monday into Wednesday. * Active weather to return Thursday and Friday with possible strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the region. However, we do have a ton of wildfire smoke coming through IL and into eastern MO and much of KY. So we`ll continue to see hazy sunshine through the afternoon. Current temperatures were in the upper 60s east of I-65 with readings just above 70 in areas west of I-65. No significant weather is expected this morning and into this afternoon. Highs will range from the low-mid 70s over the Bluegrass region to the upper 70s and lower 80s in areas west of I- 65. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 A mid/upper level ridge will build eastward over the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes today into tomorrow. High pressure at the sfc has also developed in the region, though yesterday`s stalled cold front remains in the TN border vicinity. We`ll have a few more clouds this morning in south-central KY near the boundary. Some fog is also likely in that area with breaks in the clouds, and we`ll also see fog expand along the Kentucky/Cumberland rivers. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected today. Skies will again be hazy due to NW flow carrying wildfire smoke aloft into the region. The smoke may hold back sfc heating just a bit, so didn`t go too aggressive with high temperatures today. Expect most areas to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will start the day in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few of our coolest spots in the Bluegrass Region have already dipped into the 40s early this morning. Low-level flow begins to veer southerly tonight as the ridge axis shifts east of the area. Skies will be mostly clear, with lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Though, our coolest spots in the Bluegrass should dip into the low 50s. Ridging builds and thicknesses increase over the region on Tuesday. WAA and higher 1000-850 mb thicknesses will result in warmer temps across the board. Rural areas should reach solid mid 80s, with a few urban environments pushing into the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Tuesday Night - Wednesday... Mid and upper level ridging continues to build eastward over the East Coast into Wednesday, allowing the development of SW flow aloft. Upper level shortwave energy is forecast to ride northeast across the Midwest toward the Great Lakes. A NE to SW oriented cold front will slow over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley as it encounters stronger ridging and the boundary parallel flow aloft. Tuesday night will be very mild due to steady southerly flow downstream of the cold front. Lows will be in the mid/upper 60s. Wednesday looks quite warm and mostly dry, though southern IN could see some increasing shower/storm chances by evening. Highs will reach the mid/upper 80s. Wednesday Night - Friday Night... The late week period continues to look active with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The cold front just off to the northwest, perhaps augmented by convection, will gradually sink into the Ohio Valley. We continue to feature fairly high rain chances for Thursday, though the severe weather risk looks limited due to weak flow and effective shear. The arrival of a mid-level shortwave trough from the southwest by Friday should boost shear values and the odds of organized convection. Strong storms and heavy rainfall will be possible Friday into Friday night, perhaps lingering into Saturday. Saturday - Sunday... It`s possible we can fully dry out by Saturday or Saturday night if the cold front can push all the way through the CWA. However, confidence (and PoPs) is a bit lower for this time frame. At least a brief dry period seems likely, though another shortwave trough rotating east from the central Plains could bring showers back to area late in the weekend or early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions expected. BWG will see some SCT lower clouds around 4- 6 kft this morning. Today, a SE wind will increase to around 5 kt. Skies will be mostly clear, albeit hazy due to the continued presence of wildfire smoke aloft. After sunset tonight, expect very light winds once again with just a few high clouds. Cannot rule out some brief fog early Tuesday morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE.......MJ SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM....EBW AVIATION.....MJ