933 FXUS61 KRLX 130641 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather returns today, then rounds of showers and storms continue through the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 216 AM Friday... A frontal boundary oriented west to east, is projected to stall just north of the area early this morning. Meanwhile south of the front, moisture and heat will increase under light south to southwest flow, providing relatively unstable conditions this afternoon and evening. Without upper level support, and dewpoints increasing into the upper 60s to lower 70s, expect disorganized diurnal convection as temperatures rise into the upper 80s this afternoon. Convective parameters such as SBCAPE exceeding 3000 J/Kg, poor deep layered shear, Theta-e exceeding 344K, and PWATs around 1.8 inches (HRRR and GFS), suggest scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Although most areas will remain dry or receive little rain accumulations, localized heavy downpours can also occur. Haze, still being reported at BKW under 5SM visibility overnight, should gradually erode from south to north during the morning and afternoon hours; according to the HRRR Near-SFC Smoke and Vertically- Integrated Smoke guidance. Better chances for showers and storms arrive this evening into tonight as the front edge of an upper level trough/low pressure brings several shortwaves our way. These shortwaves, acting under the aforementioned available moisture, will keep showers and storms going tonight into early Saturday morning. Calm winds overnight will become light from the south today. Broken skies will allow sunshine to heat up the atmosphere into the upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s over the higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Some spots across the lowlands could reach the 90 degree mark this afternoon. It will feel hot and muggy through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM Friday... Key Point: * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flash flooding this weekend or early next week. On Saturday, a front remains stalled to the north of the CWA while a shortwave and low approach from the west. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop amid a warm, moist environment fed by southerly flow preceding the system. Unsettled conditions then persist through early next week as the low slowly shifts east and the front meanders overhead. Although model soundings indicate potential for moderate to strong instability this weekend, mediocre shear and marginal lapse rates should help temper the severe weather risk. Meanwhile, 1.5 to 2 inch precipitable water values raise concerns about heavy downpours prompting flash flooding in areas that experience multiple rounds of precipitation; therefore, marginal to slight risks of excessive rainfall are present Saturday through Monday. During the short term forecast period, overnight lows are generally expected to remain in the 60s while daily high temperatures range from upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to around 80 in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Friday... Key Point: * Remaining unsettled much of next week. Chances of showers and thunderstorms persist as moisture continues to feed into the area through mid week. A system is then expected to traverse the Great Lakes region while ushering a cold front across the Middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians late in the work week. Temperatures for the new work week should be near to above normal during the daytime and then remain above normal at night. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 121 AM Friday... Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated overnight into early Friday morning as a frontal boundary stalls just north of the area, and a high pressure across the south slides east of the Appalachians. The exception will be haze due to Canadian wildfires which will maintain 5SM visibility at BKW and across the northern sections overnight. Guidance suggests this haze will gradually erode by Friday afternoon or evening. Conditions will briefly deteriorate as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon and evening. Expect brief periods of IFR conditions under localized heavy rain. Coded VCSH at CRW and HTS Friday morning, and PROB30 groups with thunderstorms at HTS, CRW, PKB and BKW during the afternoon and evening. Showers and storms activity will likely continue Friday night into Saturday as the mother upper-level low/trough continues its trajectory east northeast over our CWA through the weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could form overnight and affect some sites with restrictions by mid-morning. Timing of thunderstorms affecting terminals may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/13/25 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H M H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM...20 AVIATION...ARJ