024
FXUS61 KRLX 240317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1017 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front tonight brings lower elevation rain and a rain/snow
mix near mountains. Some patchy freezing drizzle possible near
mountains on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1015 PM Monday...

Light rain is now moving through the western portion of the
CWA. Have slightly expanded PoPs to the south and east to better
reflect the progression of precipitation tonight.

As of 620 PM Monday...

Precipitation is currently approaching southeast Ohio and will
progress into the area overnight. Aside from minor adjustments
to temperatures and dewpoints for the evening, the near term
forecast remains on track.

As of 1222 PM Monday...

Quiet weather will continue today with sunshine and patchy
clouds. A cold front will move through the forecast area from
northwest to southeast early Tuesday morning, which will bring
some rain showers to the lowlands and a light wintry mix the
higher elevations and the foothills of the mountains. Not much
QPF is expected from this system, generally 0.05" or less. This
should translate to only a trace or less of snow in the higher
elevations. In addition, very dry air is expected to move in
behind the cold front Tuesday, which may lead to a period of
light freezing drizzle in the higher ridges. Generally only a
few hundredths of an inch or less of ice is expected. Any
freezing drizzle can still create slick spots, which is why a
Winter Weather Advisory still remains in effect Tuesday morning
through Tuesday evening in the northern mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM Monday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather for Tuesday
night into Christmas morning. A weak upper level disturbance
will then provide a small chance of precipitation for Christmas
afternoon into Christmas night. While any precipitation in the
lowlands is expected to be in the form of rain, the higher
elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains could see
some light snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Monday...

Models show a high pressure system providing dry weather for
Thursday into Friday. The next system arrives later Friday and
Friday night, providing showers.

Models then diverge with a series of upper level disturbances
for the remainder of the weekend. There should be periods with
chances of precipitation, but there is low confidence in the
timing of these disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 PM Monday...

Flight conditions will gradually deteriorate as a front brings
precipitation into the area tonight and Tuesday morning. VFR
ceilings give way to MVFR before daybreak Tuesday, then
MVFR/IFR is likely to persist most of the day. Visibilities
may also be impaired by showers, with worst conditions expected
to occur in a wintry mix over the mountains.

A period of LLWS will be possible where winds remain light
overnight, though some locations could periodically gust into
the teens. For Tuesday, breezy conditions may linger into the
afternoon over the mountains, while light south to southwest
flow is expected for the rest of the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of LLWS may vary.
Visibilities may vary in precipitation.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 12/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in low stratus and fog Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JLB/JMC
NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JLB