402
FXUS61 KRLX 220609
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
209 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is beginning to
work towards/in the western CWA. A strong to severe storm or
two are possible over the next couple of hours across our
northeast Kentucky counties, with the main hazards being
damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado.

As of 729 PM Sunday...

Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

As of 225 PM Sunday...

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded their Slight Risk for
Severe Thunderstorms in their Day 2 Outlook (Monday/Monday
night) back across the central and southern Appalachians.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A potent system for the start of astronomical summer brings
  heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding concerns,
  as well as strong to possibly severe storms, to the area at
  times overnight tonight through Monday.

- 2) Drier, cooler weather returns for midweek, before active
  weather returns for late Thursday through the weekend, amid
  increasing warmth and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A nice, well organized low pressure system, particularly for the
start of astronomical summer, rolls out of the central plains and
across the midwest tonight, and then across the middle Ohio Valley
on Monday.

The system will push a nocturnally-enhanced low-level jet max of 60
kts out of the southwest, into the middle Ohio Valley around
daybreak Monday, before mixing through to about 40 kts as it crosses
the area ahead of the cold front during the day. This brings an area
of anomalously high PW values of 1.75 to 2 inches and h85 theta E
values to around 340 K into the forecast area first thing Monday
morning, before being pushed out by the cold front as it crosses
from northwest to southeast from late Monday afternoon through
early Monday evening.

There are likely to be two rounds of showers and thunderstorms
with this event. One, originating from convection moving into
the lower Ohio Valley this evening while the forecast area
remains dry, will likely cross the middle Ohio Valley first
thing Monday morning amid 40-50 kts 0-6 km shear on the leading
edge of the moisture/theta E feed. This will evolve into an
early morning warm advection elevated convective threat, with
isolated instances of damaging wind gusts possibly making it
through to the surface. In addition, low level turning beneath
the nocturnal jet could push the Significant Tornado Parameter
into 1 to 2 range, giving rise to a minimal early morning
Tornado threat.

Cloud top warming should lead to weakening of this morning warm
advection convection as it crosses the central Appalachians
through late Monday morning. This will allow daytime heating to
generate CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, even up to 2000 J/kg in a
narrow axis along/ahead of the cold front, Monday afternoon.
With another area of 40-50 kts 0-6 km shear along/ahead of the
cold front, storm organization is likely with damaging wind
gusts the main threat. The tornadic threat will be reduced on
account of less/weaker low level turning, and a higher afternoon
LCL, but not altogether nil.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains their 2% unconditional
tornado probabilities closer to the warm front, northeast of the
forecast area, Monday , although some CAMs indicate updraft-
helicity swaths in the forecast area then.

Thunderstorms will be heavy enough for a localized flash flood
threat with both the morning and afternoon rounds, especially
over urban areas or simply areas that are most saturated,
particularly area that are hit by both the early morning and
afternoon rounds.

The end of the convective and heavy rainfall threat comes with the
passage of the cold front to the southeast of the forecast area
coincident with sunset Monday evening, although some guidance
does show a third line of showers and dissipating thunderstorms
crossing Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure brings a dry, tranquil period for midweek, with below
normal temperatures and early morning dense river valley fog.

The next systems bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Thursday through Thursday night, and then again Saturday starting
early. While central guidance reflects this chance going right on
through next weekend, convection may be of the diurnally-driven
variety on Friday, and the pattern may evolve into one of mainly
diurnally-driven convection early next week as a mid/upper-level
ridge builds. There is model variability as to the location and
amplification of the mid/upper-level ridge at that time, but a
remnant front washing out over the area, and the ridge either not
quite over the area or not amplified enough/dirty, may be sufficient
for at least afternoon/early evening convection.

Temperatures and dew points ease into more typical summertime levels
heading into next weekend, and then even above normal heading
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An initial line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is now
moving into the western portion of the CWA, generally weakening
as it does so. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions could occur
within portions of the line, primarily in the HTS area.
Following this, additional scattered showers and storms are
progged to develop throughout the day on Monday, with coverage
expected to be greatest during the afternoon and evening hours,
thereafter becoming more confined to the higher terrain. Strong,
heavy storms are expected across portions of the area during
the afternoon and evening, resulting in brief MVFR/IFR VSBY in
some areas, along with strong gusty winds. MVFR CIGs are
possible during the day across the north, primarily impacting
PKB. CIGs will quickly lower into IFR/LIFR late Monday evening
into the overnight following the passage of a cold front, with
some light rain showers lingering amid patchy fog potential.

South to southeast flow currently will veer to southwest area-
wide by mid-morning, then remain as such throughout the day.
Surface flow then veers to NNW after 00Z Tuesday following the
passage of the cold front. Gusts of 20-25 kts are possible
during the day on Monday, higher with any thunderstorms.
In addition, marginal LLWS could occur for a few hours (predawn)
as a low-level jet moves into the area prior to the onset of
better mixing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and flight category impact from showers
and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 06/22/26
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in post-frontal stratus Tuesday
morning. IFR conditions are expected in valley fog Wednesday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM/GW
AVIATION...GW