710 FXUS61 KRLX 110531 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 131 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper-level low brings clouds and showers today and Friday. A few thunderstorms are possible this evening. Remaining chilly through Saturday, then gradually warming up. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1030 PM Thursday... No real changes were needed to the forecast at this time as it is well on track. As of 710 PM Thursday... Had to adjust sky condition by adding some to where shower activity is now developing. Other than that the forecast remains on track. As of 510 PM Thursday... Freshened up PoPs to better represent the current observations and trends. This equated to adding slightly more chances to NE KY and SE OH as showers have sprung up. Also, got rid of the high PoPs in the NE mountains due to the activity trailing off to the east. Other than that the forecast is on track. As of 128 PM Thursday... Showers are gradually exiting to the east, but a thick stratus deck lingers over much of the area. Some breaks in the clouds can be seen across portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and western West Virginia as drier air tries to filter in from the west. A few of the CAMs show isolated showers/thunderstorms developing across southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia this evening as the upper-level low gradually approaches from eastern Kentucky. SPC currently has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms outlooked for Day 1 across southern portions of our area. 0-6 km shear remains modest (35-50 kts), but there is very little to no instability areawide, which will be the limiting factor in any convective development. Upper-level low pressure will be centered across southern West Virginia by 12Z Friday, and it will gradually exit to the east throughout the day. Most shower activity will be focused across the eastern portion of West Virginia Friday, although a few stray showers will remain possible across portions of central West Virginia and southwest Virginia. An upper-level low centered over our area will bring another chilly day, with high temperatures only in the 50s areawide. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Thursday... Precipitation continues to prosper on Saturday in the midst of a digging upper level trough. Low end chances for rain will continue for lowland areas east of the Ohio River throughout the day while rain and snow showers will be observed along the higher terrain. A few of the higher ridgetops in our mountain zones may pick up light snow accumulations on the order of a few tenths of an inch. The upper trough scoots to the east overnight Saturday into Sunday, bringing shower chances to a close for the second half of the weekend. Cold temperatures Sunday morning may yield areas of frost in our current growing season. Broad ridging then takes residency and will quickly encourage rising pressure heights and a resulting temperature recovery for Sunday afternoon. Locations that relish under ample sunshine in the lower elevations could tip over the 60 degree mark on Sunday, while mountain zones will remain plagued with lingering cloud coverage and will only reach the upper 40s/low 50s during peak heating hours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 PM Thursday... Dry weather continues to flourish at the start of the long term forecast period under the guise of broad ridging aloft and nearby surface high pressure. A quick shortwave may undercut the ridge late Sunday night, but is currently progged to only promote very low chance of POPs before vanishing for the start of the new work week. A warming trend that begins on Sunday will roll into Monday, with afternoon highs anticipated to reach the 60s/70s. Destabilization during peak heating hours, coupled with lift from an advancing cold front, could pose concerns for severe weather Monday evening. The Storm Prediction Center already has painted the bulk of the Ohio River Valley in an area to closely monitor for this potential. Beyond the frontal passage, another blast of colder air will venture in on Tuesday into midweek with the eastward progression of the parent upper trough. Post-frontal rain showers continue into the day on Tuesday, and could wrap up as snow along the higher terrain late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. More opportunities for rain look plausible for the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 128 AM Friday... Widespread MVFR ceilings are slowly overspreading the area from north to south, and will continue to do so over the next several hours, such that all sites will deteriorate to MVFR, or in some locations to IFR/LIFR or worse in low ceilings and/or fog, by 08-10Z Friday. Mountains are most likely to experience areas of LIFR/VLIFR conditions in low ceilings/vsbys, with KEKN and KBKW likely to remain IFR or worse for most if not all of the TAF period. For Friday, most of the precipitation will remain confined across the mountains, and around KCKB and KCRW, with slight chances for a thunderstorm. In addition, northwesterly winds could become gusty at times after 17Z, with occasional gusts in the teens. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions associated with fog and/or low stratus may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/11/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L M L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L M L L L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L H L L L L L L H L H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in showers and low ceilings late Friday, mainly in the mountains && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC NEAR TERM...JZ/JMC SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...SL