236 FXUS61 KILN 311027 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 627 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue today as a cold front moves south through the region. Behind the front, high pressure and a drier, cooler airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A frontal boundary situated west to east across the region early this morning will sag south through our area today. Meanwhile, a mid level short wave will push east across the Ohio Valley through this afternoon. As a result, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms back across Indiana/Illinois early this morning to overspread our area from the northwest later this morning and into early afternoon. Shower chances will then continue this afternoon before beginning to taper off from the northwest through late afternoon as we get on the back side of the short wave. With some cooler air filtering into the area behind the front, we will end up with a pretty good temperature gradient across our area today. High will range from the low 70s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Lingering showers across our south into this evening will taper off as we head into the overnight and the boundary pushes farther off to the south. Surface high pressure will build into the region through the day on Friday, leading to dry and cooler conditions. Highs on Friday will be in the 75 to 80 degree range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Northwest flow aloft and a high pressure center in the Great Lakes region will keep a cool and dry northeast wind over the CWA through Sunday. Upper flow becomes more zonal and then brings it southwest late Monday and early Tuesday as low pressure in the Upper Midwest begins to consolidate with mid level energy in the Mississippi Valley Tues and Tues night. This broad low will be centered just west of the CWA on Wed and overnight. The surface high should dissipate as it exits to the southeast on Monday, when flow then backs to southeast and south. The mid level energy will combine with insolation, some increased moisture, and heat being imported on this southerly wind on Monday to produce the next chance of shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly in western CWA. The position of the low will be closer on Tuesday, when storms are expected early in the day to the west and for the entire CWA in the afternoon. This activity on both days decreases significantly overnight as heating wanes in the evening. While Wednesday should have a longer period of and more coverage of convective activity, forecast only brings it in during the afternoon due to daytime heating. A welcome respite of cooler temperatures begins Saturday with highs in the upper 70s, near 80 in the south and east. Remainder of the forecast has highs generally 80-85 with warmest readings in the southeast and east. Overnight lows start nice and cool with Sat morning lows ranging from mid 50s north to near 60 south of the Ohio. Sun morning will be bumped 1-2 degrees from this. The return of southerly wind brings min temps Sun/Mon nights to 60-65. Lows Tue/Wed nights will be marginally warmer and generally in the mid 60s area-wide. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to overspread the region from the west through this morning. As the showers move in and the low levels saturate, cigs will drop into MVFR fairly quickly with some IFR cigs possible at times. Pcpn will taper off from the northwest later this afternoon into early evening but MVFR cigs will persist into tonight. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area through the day on Friday, with VFR conditions returning by the tail end of the 30 hour KCVG TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL