589 FXUS63 KICT 012317 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers/storms Monday evening through Tuesday evening. A few severe thunderstorms possible, along with areas of heavy rainfall and localized flooding. - Additional off-and-on shower/storm chances late Wednesday night through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Upper-level ridging is squarely in place overhead this afternoon but will begin to shift eastward tonight as troughing develops across the western CONUS. Skies will remain clear overnight however a haze will remain due to the wildfire smoke aloft. This smoke may make spotting the aurora even more challenging tonight, for those that try to catch it. Low clouds will expand northward early tomorrow morning as surface winds become southerly and moisture advection increases into the region. The daylight hours are expected to remain dry with high temperatures around 90 degrees across central Kansas into the upper and mid 80s across the rest of our area. The first chance at precipitation will be tomorrow evening into early Tuesday morning as convection develops to the west and slides east through the night as a shortwave moves into the Four Corners. This convection is expected to persist into Tuesday morning as WAA advection ramps up. A strong cold front will then drop south through the area early Tuesday afternoon. Instability and shear is expected to be present ahead of the cold front to allow for organized storms, although the degree of instability remains in question based on the timing of the morning convection. Strong forcing with the front should lead to a line of storms developing across south central Kansas and quickly shifting to the southeast through the night. This system is expected to have anomalously high PWAT values, so heavy rain on top of our still saturated soils may lead to flooding concerns for south central and southeast Kansas. The front will dry things out across our area Wednesday morning with a much cooler day on tap as high temperatures will only be in the low to mid 70s. Our upper-level pattern will remain out of the southwest through next weekend which will keep an active pattern going with multiple weak impulses moving through the flow. So while it won`t rain the entire time, periods of showers and storms will remain possible through next weekend. Temperatures will also slowly rebound back closer to normal by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable winds will become southerly by mid-morning with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WI AVIATION...BRF