170
FXUS63 KICT 091119
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
619 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last mild day today.

- Warmer weather expected on Tuesday.

- Periodic storm chances return mid to late week and may last
  into the weekend. Currently, no strong or severe storms are
  anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The system that brought active weather to large portions of the
southern and central parts of the country is exiting off to the
east this morning, and a surface ridge will temporarily
reinforce a post-frontal airmass across Kansas. Temperatures
will only be in the low to mid 80s as a result this afternoon.
As the surface ridge slides off to the east tonight into Tuesday
morning, and surface pressure falls commence across the High
Plains, low-level southerly flow will return to the region. In
addition, a stout shortwave upper ridge will encroach on the
central plains on Tuesday. This pattern will briefly support a
rather warm day on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures in the
90s.

The upper ridge will weaken and quickly shift eastward, and a
cutoff low across the southern High Plains will gradually lift
northward and will likely be the catalyst for the region`s next
storm chances toward the middle of the week. However, strong to
severe storms are not anticipated as shear and instability will
be fairly meager Wednesday night through Thursday night. A
couple of additional upper level impulses may pass over the
central plains late this week into the weekend which may also
open the door to additional rain chances. With it being summer,
there are numerous fine details that need to be ironed out
before we really talk about strong or severe storms late this
week into the weekend. So while some deterministic models show
gobs of instability across much of the central plains, there are
numerous scenarios that could play out as we approach the
weekend. Stay tuned to the forecast over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Despite some patchy fog across southeast Kansas this morning,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

Through 14Z, visibility at KCNU and surrounding sites across
southeast Kansas could drop between a quarter-mile and one mile
at times. After 14Z, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
Northwest winds will increase late this morning into the
afternoon hours, and gusts around 15 to 20 knots are possible.
After 01Z, winds will decrease significantly, and light and
variable winds are expected for tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC