170 FXUS63 KICT 091119 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - One last mild day today. - Warmer weather expected on Tuesday. - Periodic storm chances return mid to late week and may last into the weekend. Currently, no strong or severe storms are anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 The system that brought active weather to large portions of the southern and central parts of the country is exiting off to the east this morning, and a surface ridge will temporarily reinforce a post-frontal airmass across Kansas. Temperatures will only be in the low to mid 80s as a result this afternoon. As the surface ridge slides off to the east tonight into Tuesday morning, and surface pressure falls commence across the High Plains, low-level southerly flow will return to the region. In addition, a stout shortwave upper ridge will encroach on the central plains on Tuesday. This pattern will briefly support a rather warm day on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures in the 90s. The upper ridge will weaken and quickly shift eastward, and a cutoff low across the southern High Plains will gradually lift northward and will likely be the catalyst for the region`s next storm chances toward the middle of the week. However, strong to severe storms are not anticipated as shear and instability will be fairly meager Wednesday night through Thursday night. A couple of additional upper level impulses may pass over the central plains late this week into the weekend which may also open the door to additional rain chances. With it being summer, there are numerous fine details that need to be ironed out before we really talk about strong or severe storms late this week into the weekend. So while some deterministic models show gobs of instability across much of the central plains, there are numerous scenarios that could play out as we approach the weekend. Stay tuned to the forecast over the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Despite some patchy fog across southeast Kansas this morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Through 14Z, visibility at KCNU and surrounding sites across southeast Kansas could drop between a quarter-mile and one mile at times. After 14Z, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Northwest winds will increase late this morning into the afternoon hours, and gusts around 15 to 20 knots are possible. After 01Z, winds will decrease significantly, and light and variable winds are expected for tonight into Tuesday morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JC