847
FXUS63 KICT 180830
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High wind event today with northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph
  along I-70, with gusts 50-55 for the remainder of the area.

- Strong winds will lead to extreme grassland fire danger today.
  Any fire that starts will spread rapidly.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through this
  weekend and next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Currently, a potent low pressure system is centered over the
Northern Plains with a cold frontal boundary extending across
central Nebraska into northern Kansas. Ahead of this front, strong
southerly winds are gusting around 30-35 knots. Behind the boundary,
a brief period of extremely gusty winds is being seen. A few
isolated gusts to 55 mph are possible for our central Kansas
counties as this front passes through. Along and just ahead of the
front, a few showers are showing up on radar over central Kansas.
Though, with a sizable dewpoint depression, very little is reaching
the surface. A few sprinkles can`t be ruled out over the next few
hours as these echoes progress eastward.

For the rest of today, the main impact from this potent system will
result from a tightening pressure gradient behind the boundary on
Thursday. This will lead to gusty northwesterly winds with sustained
winds between 35-40 mph for central Kansas and gusts of 55-60 mph.
Further south across south-central and southeastern Kansas,
sustained winds of 30-35 mph with gusts reaching between 50-55 mph
are expected. These winds combined with low humidity and the overall
dry pattern we`ve seen the past month will lead to elevated fire
weather concerns primarily this afternoon. In addition, blowing dust
will likely accompany the stronger wind gusts, especially across
central Kansas. This could make driving very dangerous along I-70,
especially for areas west of Salina. Slightly cooler, near normal
temperatures are expected on Thursday behind the frontal boundary
with highs reaching into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Headlines across the area generally remain the same. A High Wind
Warning is in effect for portions of central Kansas with a Wind
Advisory in place for south-central and southeastern Kansas through
00Z. The Red Flag Warning has been expanded to include all our
counties as the high winds and low humidity will lead to areas of
extreme fire danger into southeast Kansas.

For Friday and Saturday, upper level flow will become zonal allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to around 60 each afternoon
under partly cloudy skies. Ahead of the next system, winds will turn
southerly across the area and we`ll see gusty winds again on Friday
afternoon as the surface gradient tightens. The next quick hitting,
weak system will pass through the Canadian Prairies and the Northern
Plains on Saturday dragging an associated cold front through our
area on Saturday night. This front will act to moderate our warming
trend, nudging temperatures closer to normal for this time of year
with highs on Sunday topping out in the lower 50s. Then temperatures
will once again begin rebounding to above normal as strong ridging
builds in for next week. Highs on Monday look to reach into the
upper 50s to lower 60s with Tuesday and Wednesday hinting at lower
60s areawide. The first peak at Christmas tends to indicate
temperatures well above normal with highs in the 60s continuing
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

An area of MVFR CIGS continue to progress across portions of
southeast KS but should scatter at CNU within the next 1-2
hours. LLWS conditions will continue across south-central and
southeast KS as a 50-55 kt LLJ near 1.4 kft overspreads the
area. A strong cold front will move through the terminals after
06Z, ending the LLWS potential from west to east while winds
shift from the northwest. A brief period of gusts up to 40-45
kt are expected from 09-13Z. After a brief lull in gusts,
northwest wind gusts will rapidly intensify after 15-16Z up to
55 kt. These winds will rapidly decrease near 00Z Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Extreme fire danger likely across most of the area on Thursday
with very high fire danger possible on Friday.

Northwest winds will quickly increase late this morning with
gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range likely by the early afternoon,
with the higher speeds over central KS. By the early afternoon,
RH values are forecast to be in the 20-30% range with the lower
end of these values for locations west of I-135. Any fires that
start today will be difficult to control, especially across
central KS where winds will be slightly stronger.

For Friday, winds will flip around to the southwest with gusts in
the 30-40 mph range possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH
values will be in the 25 to 30% range and will combine with the
winds to produce very high grassland fire danger for much of the
area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ067>072-082-
083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF
FIRE WEATHER...BRF