853
FXUS63 KTOP 122322
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
622 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures this weekend through next week with highs in
  the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- Low (10-30%) chances for scattered pop-up showers/storms
  Thursday through Sunday.

- Additional storm chances arrive by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

An area of scattered rain showers continues to redevelop across
southeast KS. These showers are developing on the north side of
a weak upper-level low that is slowly meandering across the
KS/OK Boarder. Models continue to keep any measurable rainfall
along and southeast of I-35 through Friday. There may be just
enough instability across southeast KS for a few thunderstorms,
but any thunderstorm that does develop will be small and short-
lived. The upper-level low will lift northeast by Friday evening
and any associated precipitation should exit our area. An
upper-level ridge begins amplifying across the Plains Saturday.
A warmer day is expected across the area with highs in the 90s
for most. Some short-term models have a few mesoscale convective
systems developing across the high Plains and pushing into the
central Plains Saturday and Sunday on the edge of the ridge.
The ridge will slowly fade off to the southeast by early next
week as an upper-level trough moves out of the Rockies. Models
diverge on how far south this trough will move, but they all
depict a rather weak open wave. Precipitation chances will
increase by Tuesday, but confidence in widespread precipitation
or more significant storms is very low at this time. Warm and
humid conditions are favored by mid- week as an upper-level
ridge is forecast to build back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Tricky forecast with the potential for low cigs and fog at terminals
overnight. Models are a bit too aggressive in the current extent
of MVFR cigs, so think the northward progression of MVFR to IFR
cigs will be delayed. This makes crossover temperatures more likely
to be met, allowing for fog to develop. Extent of fog and overall
reduction to VSBY remains uncertain, but VSBY should improve
once mixing commences with sunrise. Expect a return to VFR by
mid to late morning Friday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Flanagan