853 FXUS63 KTOP 122322 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures this weekend through next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. - Low (10-30%) chances for scattered pop-up showers/storms Thursday through Sunday. - Additional storm chances arrive by Tuesday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 An area of scattered rain showers continues to redevelop across southeast KS. These showers are developing on the north side of a weak upper-level low that is slowly meandering across the KS/OK Boarder. Models continue to keep any measurable rainfall along and southeast of I-35 through Friday. There may be just enough instability across southeast KS for a few thunderstorms, but any thunderstorm that does develop will be small and short- lived. The upper-level low will lift northeast by Friday evening and any associated precipitation should exit our area. An upper-level ridge begins amplifying across the Plains Saturday. A warmer day is expected across the area with highs in the 90s for most. Some short-term models have a few mesoscale convective systems developing across the high Plains and pushing into the central Plains Saturday and Sunday on the edge of the ridge. The ridge will slowly fade off to the southeast by early next week as an upper-level trough moves out of the Rockies. Models diverge on how far south this trough will move, but they all depict a rather weak open wave. Precipitation chances will increase by Tuesday, but confidence in widespread precipitation or more significant storms is very low at this time. Warm and humid conditions are favored by mid- week as an upper-level ridge is forecast to build back into the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Tricky forecast with the potential for low cigs and fog at terminals overnight. Models are a bit too aggressive in the current extent of MVFR cigs, so think the northward progression of MVFR to IFR cigs will be delayed. This makes crossover temperatures more likely to be met, allowing for fog to develop. Extent of fog and overall reduction to VSBY remains uncertain, but VSBY should improve once mixing commences with sunrise. Expect a return to VFR by mid to late morning Friday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Flanagan