963 FXUS63 KEAX 091037 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 537 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures today with breezy northwesterly winds. - Warmer temperatures return tomorrow (mid 80s), but low humidity will keep conditions relatively comfortable. - Warm/hot and humid conditions arrive by Wednesday and continue into the weekend. - Unsettled weather with multiple chances for showers and storms for Thursday through Sunday, but forecast details are limited at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Current water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows the center of the 500 mb low spinning over NE Minnesota, with accompanying troughing extending southward into the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an occluded low is analyzed near Duluth, with the cold front that moved through the region yesterday currently draped from NW Ohio southwestward into SE Oklahoma. Breezy northerly winds that set in after the frontal passage yesterday afternoon and evening have become light and southwesterly, with some patchy fog developing around the region this morning. The mid level low should slowly drift eastward today toward the upper peninsula of Michigan with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft over our CWA. A secondary cold front will move through the region from NW to SE by later this morning, bringing a return of breezy northwesterly winds behind it with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. The northwesterly flow throughout the troposphere will likely bring in at least some smoke from Canadian wildfires. High temperatures this afternoon should range from as chilly as the lower 70s across northern MO to as warm as the upper 70s along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor. Winds should relax by this evening with high pressure setting in by late tonight, yielding another pleasant evening and overnight period with mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the mid 50s (normal lows for June 10th are around 63 degrees). By tomorrow, the upper trough shifts eastward with mid/upper ridging building in from the west. This will send temperatures back into the mid 80s for Tuesday afternoon, but dewpoints should remain in the mid 50s, keeping conditions comfortable. Ridging strengthens further into Wednesday, with mid level heights increasing, helping bring in upper 80s to perhaps even 90 degree temperatures for Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, increased southerly return flow should bring in mid 60s dewpoints (ergo, hot and humid Wednesday afternoon). Unsettled weather and shower/storm chances return for Thursday and into the weekend as models suggest troughing developing over the Southern Plains and remaining somewhat stagnant, with a closed mid level low progged to develop and enter into the Ozarks by Saturday. Warm and humid conditions should continue, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s. Slight chance to chance (20% to 40%) PoPs are in the forecast for basically every 6 hour period from Thursday morning through Sunday. Forecast details (i.e. which time period may be most favorable for shower and storms) will hopefully come into better focus in the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period under generally clear skies. Winds will turn northwesterly by later this morning, with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots through the afternoon hours. Winds will become light and variable after 00z this evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW