449 FXUS63 KICT 131139 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers/storms possible this morning, mainly along and west of a line from Great Bend to Harper - Additional storms are possible tonight, especially across central/south-central KS - Storm chances, especially at nighttime, continue into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 As of 230 AM Friday morning, the stubborn midlevel low continues to meander across northeast OK. Widely scattered showers/storms continue within its vicinity. A secondary area of showers/storms are ongoing across northwest KS. The most favorable zone for low/mid level WAA is west of our forecast area, therefore the prospects of showers/storms is low this morning. Between the two areas of showers/storms and the associated cloud cover, sits an area relatively cloud-free. This area is quickly becoming overtaken by low clouds and patchy fog. These low clouds and fog will persist through mid-morning before scattering. Shower/storm chances will continue across southeast KS this afternoon with the midlevel low remaining nearby. Another area of thunderstorm development is expected across northeast CO/northwest KS and adjacent areas of NE/WY. These storms are likely to grow upscale into an MCS during the evening hours and push towards central KS. The best WAA is likely to remain west of I-135 and have placed the greatest rain chances across central KS Saturday morning. An additional axis of shower/storm development is possible late tonight along the eastern periphery of the 850mb LLJ from portions of west-central KS into south-central KS. For both areas of convection, elevated instability up to 1500 J/kg with effective shear values less than 25 kt will support wind gusts near 50 mph and dime size hail. The midlevel ridge axis will remain across the southwest US Saturday night through Monday with perturbations rounding the ridge and ejecting into the Plains. There remains a signal for afternoon storm development across the High Plains Saturday afternoon with upscale growth and an MCS moving across a portion of the region Saturday night/Sunday morning. Where that evolution ultimately takes place hinges on the extent and duration of WAA driven thunderstorms Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Multiple global models and the HREF suggest the WAA driven storms will persist in the vicinity of the I-135 corridor well-into the afternoon hours. This scenario would likely lessen the potential for an MCS passage Saturday night. As the strength of the LLJ increases Saturday night, additional WAA driven storms are possible, in-advance of any MCS passage. These challenging forecast scenarios with WAA driven convection will continue into early next week before a more-synopically driven MCS progresses across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. The midlevel trough responsible for this MCS will move east of the area by midweek with increasing midlevel heights thereafter. This should support a drier and warmer pattern for the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 -SHRA has moved east of CNU and should remain east for the remainder of the period. Isolated -TSRA remains west of GBD, HUT, and ICT and will remain west of the terminals this morning. Lingering IFR to MVFR CIGS and VSBY will scatter by mid-morning with predominately VFR conditions and light winds thereafter. Additional storm chances are possible tonight into Saturday morning, especially across central and south-central KS but confidence is too low for inclusion at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...BRF