715 FXUS63 KEAX 050810 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 310 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Likely dry conditions today, but can`t rule out some isolated or even scattered showers. - More widespread activity moves into the region tonight with the best chances for showers and storms along and south of the Missouri river. - The weekend looks more dry than rainy but there are periods of low chances (less than 40%) Saturday morning and again Sunday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Broad southwesterly upper-level flow is occurring from the Southwest into the Central Plains. This is a result of broad upper ridging from Mexico and into the eastern Gulf. What makes this pattern challenging is that convection that is occurring in eastern New Mexico is producing several internal PV anomalies that track east-northeastward with the upper flow. That`s in addition to any more notable embedded shortwave troughs. One of these internal PV anomalies/ embedded shortwaves is tracking into western KS and OK as of 08Z. As this feature moves into eastern KS and MO later today, it may spread some isolated to possibly scattered showers. These features are notoriously tricky to forecast and lead to greater uncertainty. Add into this that the east-northeasterly lower-level flow is leading to a deep layer of dry air, about 10K feet based on forecast soundings. So limited moisture combined with mid to upper-level mesoscale forcing competing with each other. The HRRR produces some light rain in the northern half of the forecast area with one of these PV areas and that is similar to the NAM. Given the uncertainty, but low potential, have added some slight chance PoPs (less than 20%) to the forecast area through the day. I think it`s more likely we`re dry for most of the day, but I just can`t rule out some spotty showers today as those waves track east. Late tonight, precipitation chances will increase, mainly after midnight, as a potential convective system tracks east across southern KS into southern MO. This has been a consistent signal in the models the last few nights, but the timing has trended later in the overnight and into the morning hours on Friday. Given the anticipated track, the best chances for storms will be the southern half of the forecast area, mainly along and south of the Missouri River. The day 2 Convective Outlook has a marginal risk in our far southern zones. Think the chances for anything severe will be south of the forecast area as we just lack decent instability. The upper pattern described above will continue into the weekend. That means the uncertainties associated with that pattern extend into the weekend as well. Case in point, last night, the forecast for Saturday looked dry. But now we have 30-40% PoPs in the morning with slight chance PoPs during the afternoon. And now Sunday looks mostly dry. The point of saying this is that there`s a lot of uncertainty in the forecast given the upper- level flow and the potential for features that weren`t around even 12 hours before (internal PV produced by convection to our west) to have a very notable impact on our forecast. A stronger upper low will track from the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest southeastward into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, clipping the forecast area Monday. As the associated cold front moves through the area early Monday, showers and storms look possible. Drier high pressure should move into the area behind the front, leading to a dry forecast for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 An air mass with more low level saturation bringing IFR CIGs to KDMO and KVER is expected to slowly migrate westward through the overnight hours. This combined with an approaching disturbance across SW KS will result in lowered CIGs through the overnight. CIGs are not expected to get as low as observations across central MO, but there is the potential for some CIGs lowering to around 1500-2000ft. Minor VIS impacts from BR/HZ are possible. After sunrise winds accelerate slight from the NE. Sky coverage becomes more SCT at low VFR with OVC from smoke HZ aloft. Chances for showers have shifted becoming more likely just after this TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Pesel