552 FXUS63 KSGF 020726 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active pattern returns Tuesday and continues through the week, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%). - There is a Marginal to Slight risk of both excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. The heaviest rain is forecast Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Mid-level water vapor imagery nicely shows the location of a quasi-stationary front draped across central and southeast Missouri early this morning. Overhead, an upper-level ridge axis is shifting into the region. Light winds, clear skies, and dew points in the mid 60s may allow for some fog development shortly before sunrise. Crossover temperatures in the low 60s support this potential, and 00Z HREF probabilities of visibilities less than 5 miles increase above 50% for portions of the eastern Ozarks. Otherwise, mid-level height rises will allow for mostly clear skies and modest warm air advection, resulting in warmer conditions than yesterday. Highs look to top out in the mid to upper 80s areawide. Meanwhile, an upper-level shortwave across the desert southwest will begin to phase with northern stream energy during the day today and trigger thunderstorm development across the High Plains. As this activity gradually spreads east, it will encounter a less-sheared environment across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas along with increasing inhibition. Current timing brings precipitation chances to extreme southeast Kansas and western Missouri around midnight, and they spread east through Tuesday morning and afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 As the aforementioned upper-level wave shifts east, it will drag a long northeast-to-southwest oriented cold front along with it. Ensemble guidance tends to bring another round of convection to the area along this front by Tuesday evening. It`s currently unclear how distinguishable this activity will be from the earlier convection described in the Short Term discussion. To that end, it`s also uncertain how or if morning thunderstorms may affect diurnal heating and destabilization. However, model guidance is in good agreement in depicting strong moisture return pumping through the region, which may help to counteract modest daytime heating. In fact, model IVT and IWV depictions meet atmospheric river criteria, driving forecast PWATs near the climatological max across the Ozarks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Coincident smaller vort maxes lifting northeast along the trough will further enhance lift. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index also continues to highlight an increased signal for QPF across the area (though little in the way of a Shift of Tails), suggesting potential for a heavy but not extreme rainfall event. All of this to say that atmospheric conditions will be favorable for heavy rainfall Tuesday evening into Wednesday, with rainfall rates greater than 1 inch per hour possible. Of additional concern will be the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening into at least the early overnight hours. Shear vectors oriented largely parallel to the front suggest upscale growth of any initially discrete convection into clusters or line segments, as is common in these types of setups. Thus, damaging straight-line winds will likely be the primary hazard. Modest mid-level lapse rates will lend themselves to long and skinny thermo profiles, therefore subduing the large hail threat (and perhaps increasing the flood threat), but forecast large hail parameters suggest hail up to quarters will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has our forecast area outlined in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for Tuesday evening and night. Likewise, both CIPS severe analogs and CSU machine learning probabilities support this potential. It remains to be seen how long or if the severe threat will linger into Wednesday morning, but overall convection is expected to weaken as it pushes east and instability wanes. Ensembles like to stall the cold front somewhere across the Mississippi and Ohio valleys at the end of the week; however, cluster analysis reveals notable differences in its exact positioning that will have important implications on sensible weather across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. A slower or farther west solution would mean a greater risk for continued rain chances through Thursday, while a faster or farther east solution would mean lower rain chances. Overall, the greatest forecast rainfall totals are north and west of I-44. Latest NBM 72-hr QPF valid Tue-Thu: >0.5 inch:70-95% >1 inch: 40-90% >2 inches: 10-50% >3 inches: 5-20% It should be noted that additional rain is possible Friday through the weekend, which is not included in the above totals, and the greatest rainfall totals are forecast in the Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning period. Ensemble guidance progs another shortwave impulse to lift through the region on Friday, which may help lift a warm front through southern Missouri. Details on the eventual synoptic pattern will be dictated by the evolution of the midweek activity, so expect changes to the forecast. Keep up with the latest forecast as we enter a potentially active stretch of weather. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Will have to watch for patchy fog development across portions of the eastern Ozarks near 10Z this morning; but low confidence precluded any mention of fog at the terminal sites. Light winds early this morning will increase with afternoon mixing, occasionally gusting up to 15-20 kt. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio