231 FXUS63 KICT 082028 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 328 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening mainly in south central and southeast Kansas. - Dry weather pattern Monday through Wednesday. - Chances for on-and-off showers/storms by Wednesday night or Thursday and persisting through next weekend. - Increasing heat and humidity possible for late next weekend into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Changes: 1) Quicker timing of cold front - adjusted precip chances accordingly 2) Precipitation chances this week 3) Slightly lower dewpoints next weekend A trough over central Canada and the Plains tracks southeast and its associated cold front continues to drop south through Kansas. There is the surface cold front that stretches from Wellington to Eureka to just south of Kansas City which is moving a little quicker than previously anticipated. Visible satellite is starting to indicate cumulus development along the frontal boundary from Harper to Allen counties. The SPC mesoanalysis page has started to show a break in the CIN (inhibition) in southeast Kansas which is of course ahead of the front. There is 20-35kts of bulk shear with CAPE at 3k J/kg. Convective development has begun with scattered showers and storms depicted on radar. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the main threats being wind gusts up to 70 mph and up to golf ball sized hail. Locally heavy rainfall remains a concern especially over the saturated surfaces of this same area which could quickly lead to additional flooding or enhance any residual/ongoing flooding. This activity should push to the southeast and exit by early evening. The secondary boundary is behind and stretching across northern Kansas; scattered showers and isolated storms have developed and persisted along this boundary tracking east southeast. There is one storm that moved into north central Kansas this afternoon from Russell and is heading towards Salina. Minimal concerns are anticipated with this activity other than lightning, brief moderate to heavy rain and small hail. After a fairly active last week, a ridge moves into the central CONUS from the Mountain West for the start of the week. This will allow things to dry out for a few days before the next system pushes in for the latter half of the week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s for this week. The next chances for showers and storms move in late Wednesday into next weekend; on and off chances of storms are anticipated. There is weak flow as mentioned in the previous discussion, so severe storms are not expected. Plenty of time for changes to occur in this part of the forecast. It continues to be highlighted, an increase in available moisture with dewpoints rising into the 70s combined with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s could result in heat indices approaching the triple digit mark next week. Dewpoints are slightly lower given the latest NBM for the weekend. The expectation is still to have that reminder of what summer should feel like. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 A Strong cold front continues to advance southward passing through KHUT and approaching KICT. Widely scattered storms are expected to develop ahead of the front in the next hour or so with some becoming severe. Impacts to KHUT/KICT may not occur if storm initiation is delayed another few hours but wanted to include prob30 group as storms could develop at any time. A few showers are passing to the north of KSLN but continued development to the southwest is possible impacting KSLN. KCNU will most likely have the best chances but with storms being widely scattered did not feel confident enough to bring on station. Winds will be gusty from the north after frontal passage but subsiding with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the evening as the front continues its push into Oklahoma. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Juanita AVIATION...SGS