554
FXUS63 KTOP 180454
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1054 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds increase tonight, becoming strongest during the daytime
  hours Thursday. Northwest winds gusting at 50-65 MPH are
  expected during the day. A High Wind Warning has been issued
  for areas along and west of an Emporia to Marysville line, and
  a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas further east.

- Low relative humidity along with the windy conditions will
  create very high to extreme fire danger across the area
  Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along
  and south of a line from Concordia to Maple Hill.

- There is a 20-40% chance of rain after midnight tonight into early
  Thursday morning. Otherwise dry weather persists.

- Above average temperatures continue through the forecast
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Tonight through Thursday:

An upper trough across the northwest US will dig southeast across
the Plains through Thursday afternoon. As the upper trough
amplifies, strong low-level CAA will develop southward from the
northern Plains into the central Plains late Tonight through
Thursday. Wind gust early this morning after 2 AM, behind the front
will increase to 50 to 60 MPH across much of north central KS and
portions of east central KS. Generally along and west of an Emporia
to Manhattan line. Once the front exits the CWA there may be a
several hour lull in the the strong wind gusts. However, as a
northwesterly low-level jet increase to 60 KTS, strong surface wind
gusts will develop during the late morning and afternoon hours. Wind
gusts along and west of an Emporia to Marysville line will range
from 55 to 65 MPH, where a high wind warning is in effect from
8Z THU through 00Z FRI. A wind advisory will be in effect from
8Z THU through 00Z FRI for much of northeast and east central KS
where wind gusts may range from 45 to 55 MPH. A few scattered
rain showers may develop during the late evening hours into the
early morning hours ahead and along the cold front.

Thursday high temperatures will occur during the morning hours and
will slowly fall through the afternoon hours from the mid 40s to
lower 50s, falling through the 40s into the 30s along the NE border.
The strong wind gusts will make it feel even colder.

Thursday night through Christmas Eve (Wednesday):

Look for dry conditions as the mid and upper flow becomes more zonal.
Temperatures next week will warm back into the mid 50s to mid 60s by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions have returned, though could still see brief drops
to MVFR over the next few hours. Winds become strong from the
northwest behind a cold front between 09-11z at terminals. Could
see gusts of 40-45kts as the front passes, but winds of this
magnitude are expected to be short-lived. Low chance for some
MVFR cigs and showers along the front as well. The strongest
winds arrive by 15-16z, with gusts of 40-50kts expected through
the day before winds weaken this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 623 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Very high to extreme fire danger is expected across the area on
Thursday. Northwest winds sustained at 25 to 40 MPH with gusts
of 50 to 65 MPH are expected through the day. Relative humidity
values fall to 25-40 percent during the afternoon. After coordination
with fire weather partners, a Red Flag Warning has been issued
for the area where the strongest winds, lowest relative humidity,
and most susceptible fuels all overlap, generally along and south
of a line from Concordia to Maple Hill. No outdoor burning should
take place on Thursday

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ020-
KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Flanagan
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan