206 FXUS63 KTOP 312317 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 617 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Widely scattered storms are possible this evening across eastern KS. A few could reach severe limits. -A warm few days are expected into the early workweek. -Heavy rain could occur Tuesday, with periodic chances for storms through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Early this afternoon, water vapor imagery shows a compact cyclonic circulation over northern Nebraska, moving southward toward the forecast area. There are a few small showers and storms associated with the low to our north. Meanwhile, back over northeastern KS, instability has been increasing as temperatures have warmed into the 80s. The compact low north of the area is expected to move over northeast KS this evening. Enhanced lift from the low, combined with around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and limited CIN should allow for widely-scattered thunderstorm development, especially across the eastern half of the CWA late this afternoon and this evening. Effective shear will be a bit limited, maybe around 30 kts, but DCAPE could be around or just over 1000 J/kg with a inverted-V signal to low level forecast soundings. Thus, any storm that forms could produce winds of 60 to 70 mph and small hail. Storms exit the area into tonight. Warm conditions will stay around for the first few days of June with high temperatures around 90 degrees by Monday afternoon. That will occur as strong southerly flow returns, also pulling in deeper moisture ahead of our next system approaching from the Four Corners region. POPs will increase late Monday and through the day Tuesday in the vicinity of a cold front moving across the area. Strong forcing and very high pwat values near a climatological max could lead to heavy rainfall and localized flooding if storms train over some of the same areas on Tuesday. Current thinking is that many locations could receive between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain from Monday night through Tuesday night. Confidence in severe storms is not high currently and could depend on morning precipitation and where the front lines up later in the afternoon. Beyond Tuesday`s system, a series of shortwave troughs in the flow aloft will bring periodic chances for storms throughout the week. One round may depend somewhat on the previous round, but right now the best chances appear to be Wednesday night (30-60% chance from north to south) and possibly again late Friday (30-50% chance area-wide). Temperatures cool slightly mid-week behind Tuesday`s front, but warm back to near normal in the low 80s later in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF at all sites. The main aviation hazard will be some isolated storm chances this evening, mainly for KTOP and KFOE. Kept at PROB30 in for KTOP and KFOE for a stray storm developing and moving over the terminal. Outside of storms, surface ridging will move in for the remainder of the TAF, keeping skies mostly clear and winds light. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Griesemer