406 FXUS63 KTOP 101641 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1141 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm through Wednesday before cooler and chances for showers build in Thursday and Friday (20-30%). - Mostly dry and warm weekend before active pattern for precipitation appears to return next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A quiet morning is underway across the central Plains as northwesterly flow remains common with surface ridging passing overhead. This has helped to keep skies clear and winds light over the past several hours. Under these conditions, expect temperatures to drop into the low 50s across the area. With richer moisture further east across east-central KS, could see some patchy fog develop in low-lying areas this morning through sunrise, but do not expect this to become widespread. By this afternoon, the 850mb ridge axis will begin to move into central KS, flipping low level flow back towards the southwest. This should help to help areas in central KS to mix down some warmer 850 temps this afternoon, warming them into the low to mid 90s. Areas further east should be a few degrees cooler as low level flow will be slower to shift. Still expect the upper 80s for highs this afternoon. Similar conditions will be expected Wednesday as low-level southwesterly flow overspreads all of northeast Kansas. This should warm temperatures a few degrees higher than Tuesday, topping out in the low to mid 90s area-wide. The dry conditions should come to an end for some by Thursday afternoon as a weak upper low begins to track towards the Ozarks from the southern Plains. This upper low should help to increase lift and moisture into eastern Kansas by the afternoon, increasing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Shear and instability will be fairly weak Thursday afternoon, so severe weather is not expected. The cutoff low slowly tracks east into western Missouri Friday, continuing chances for scattered showers and storms. Like Thursday, instability and shear will remain weak so not concerned for any severe storm threat. Given the increase in cloud cover and precipitation chances, highs Thursday and Friday should be lower, topping out in the mid 80s. By Saturday and Sunday, the upper low will have moved into the Mississippi River valley so should see dry conditions across the area. With minimal changes in airmass, warm and muggy conditions will likely set up across the area making it finally feel a bit more like summer in Kansas. By next week, guidance begins to deepen mid-level ridging across the Desert Southwest. This set up normally brings lobes of energy into the central Plains as they round the northern-periphery of the ridge, and in turn, will bring more frequent chances for rain/storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 With increasing dewpoint temps comes a conditionally unstable airmass this afternoon and early evening. Models do not show any vertical motion or lift so I don`t expect anything to develop and VFR conditions should remain in place. Forecast soundings show a little more wind in the boundary layer tonight with temps expected to hold in the 60s. So the potential for ground fog looks to be lower tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Wolters