406
FXUS63 KTOP 101641
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1141 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm through Wednesday before cooler and chances for
showers build in Thursday and Friday (20-30%).

- Mostly dry and warm weekend before active pattern for
precipitation appears to return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

A quiet morning is underway across the central Plains as
northwesterly flow remains common with surface ridging passing
overhead. This has helped to keep skies clear and winds light over
the past several hours. Under these conditions, expect temperatures
to drop into the low 50s across the area. With richer moisture
further east across east-central KS, could see some patchy fog
develop in low-lying areas this morning through sunrise, but do not
expect this to become widespread. By this afternoon, the 850mb ridge
axis will begin to move into central KS, flipping low level flow
back towards the southwest. This should help to help areas in
central KS to mix down some warmer 850 temps this afternoon, warming
them into the low to mid 90s. Areas further east should be a few
degrees cooler as low level flow will be slower to shift. Still
expect the upper 80s for highs this afternoon. Similar conditions
will be expected Wednesday as low-level southwesterly flow
overspreads all of northeast Kansas. This should warm temperatures a
few degrees higher than Tuesday, topping out in the low to mid 90s
area-wide.

The dry conditions should come to an end for some by Thursday
afternoon as a weak upper low begins to track towards the Ozarks
from the southern Plains. This upper low should help to increase
lift and moisture into eastern Kansas by the afternoon, increasing
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Shear and
instability will be fairly weak Thursday afternoon, so severe
weather is not expected. The cutoff low slowly tracks east into
western Missouri Friday, continuing chances for scattered showers
and storms. Like Thursday, instability and shear will remain weak so
not concerned for any severe storm threat. Given the increase in
cloud cover and precipitation chances, highs Thursday and Friday
should be lower, topping out in the mid 80s. By Saturday and Sunday,
the upper low will have moved into the Mississippi River valley so
should see dry conditions across the area. With minimal changes in
airmass, warm and muggy conditions will likely set up across the
area making it finally feel a bit more like summer in Kansas.

By next week, guidance begins to deepen mid-level ridging across the
Desert Southwest. This set up normally brings lobes of energy into
the central Plains as they round the northern-periphery of the
ridge, and in turn, will bring more frequent chances for
rain/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

With increasing dewpoint temps comes a conditionally unstable
airmass this afternoon and early evening. Models do not show
any vertical motion or lift so I don`t expect anything to
develop and VFR conditions should remain in place. Forecast
soundings show a little more wind in the boundary layer tonight
with temps expected to hold in the 60s. So the potential for
ground fog looks to be lower tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Wolters