112
FXUS63 KEAX 120649
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
149 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon. Some
  isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly north
  of I-70 and east of US-63.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and
  Friday; heavy rainfall is possible, but no severe weather is
  anticipated.

- Hot and humid conditions with isolated showers and storms
  continue through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The synoptic pattern is dominated by relatively zonal flow
across the northern CONUS and a nearly cut off low across west
Texas. Ridging just ahead of this trough keeps much of Wednesday
relatively quiet, but the tight corridor between this ridge and
the low to the west propels warm air and moisture into the
region. This increased relative humidity ushers in hot and muggy
conditions. Temperatures this afternoon have easily crested the
mid-80s with much of NW MO reaching into the low 90s. Dew points
ascend into the mid to upper 60s throughout the region. Heat
index values rise into the mid-90s given us our first taste of
summer heat. While this heat may not be the most hazardous, it
is important to take the heat into account if you will be doing
prolonged outdoor activities.

Warm air and moisture continue to flow into the region as the
low slowly migrates east. Satellite is showing the development
of CU across NW MO suggesting destabilization of the atmosphere
across that region. CAMs have been routinely showing chances for
isolated convection across the region this evening. Guidance
has been suggesting some broad scale surface convergence
combined with ample 500mb vorticity convection moving over the
region later this afternoon. With the lack of a cap thanks to
the warm temperatures, there is not really anything stopping the
atmosphere from convecting if that CVA is able to create lift
to the surface. CU development over SW MO combined with slight
surface convergence between STJ and EZZ add confidence to the
isolated storm potential. There remains a lack of strong thermal
of kinematic boundaries which precludes strong organized
convection. Ample instability with a lack of shear or discrete
lifting mechanism support weaker air mass thunderstorms;
however, it would not be entirely surprising if a couple of
these storms get fairly robust with small hail and gusty winds
those MUCAPE values near 3000 J/kg and lapse rates approaching
7C/km in the lower part of the vertical profile. The notable
lack of shear likely keeps these storms from reaching severe
criteria or maintaining themselves much past sunset.

Thursday the low continues to progress toward the north and
east. The pressure gradient between it and a high over the Gulf
creates a small jet streak which boosts the warm air and
moisture advection. This also manifests a surface warm front
across the I-44 corridor which lifts northward through the
afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms proceed northward
with this warm front stalling near the I-70 corridor as the
center of the cyclone pivots eastward across the Ozarks. Limited
forcing from relatively weak thermal boundaries keeps coverage
fairly scattered with weak shear and less instability keeping
severe potential marginal. However, PWAT values hover between
1.5 and 2 inches bringing the potential for concentrated heavy
rainfall. Storm motion vectors parallel to the boundary present
the opportunity for training storms which could lead to
localized flooding. Again, the primary limiting factor will be
the coverage of said storms, but the chance for storms to bring
potentially torrential downpours exist. This environment jaunts
NE Friday as the center of the low traverses SE MO. Heavy
rainfall remains the primary threat as PWAT values remain above
1.5 inches across the state. The good news is storm motions look
to be slightly more transient across much of the area lowering
the flood threat; however, this is conditional on how previous
QPE may lower flash flood guidance lessening the rain amounts
needed to potentially flood. CAPE and shear remain rather meager
limiting much of the severe potential.

This hot, humid, and muggy environment continues for the next
several days. Upper level flow turns northwesterly through the
weekend bringing "cooler" air into the region. Highs persist in
the upper 80s touching 90 degrees over the next several days.
Dew points hold fairly steady in the upper 60s to low 70s
keeping the sticky conditions around. Ridging begins to dominate
the synoptic pattern as a high across the desert SW tries to
work its way into the central CONUS. Slight NW flow aloft
inhibits this movement and looks to trend temperatures in the
upper 80s to 90 degrees. Long term guidance does keep the
pattern relatively active with multiple shortwaves traversing
the flow with the next substantial wave moving through next
Tuesday bringing more rainfall opportunities.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Currently VFR conditions with light southerly winds at the
terminals. These conditions should continue through the
remainder of the morning hours and into the afternoon. A few
isolated to scattered showers and storms may be in the area of
the KC metro between 20z and 00z this afternoon, so have
introduced a PROB30 group for -SHRA during this period. MVFR
CIGs may develop by Thursday evening, but confidence was not
high enough at this time to commit to it.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BMW