169
FXUS63 KICT 220816
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very active pattern looks to continue through at least
  Thursday with confidence increasing that another MCS will be
  possible for both Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

- While damaging winds and hail will remain a threat with
  storms, heavy rain and flooding will continue to become a
  significant threat as we get multiple rounds of heavy rain.

- Below normal temperatures will remain through Friday with a
  warm-up for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently have a large complex of storms tracking through
central and eastern OK with additional development over
southwest KS into the OK Panhandle. This activity is being
fueled by very strong 850-700mb moisture transport with an
abundance of MUCAPE in place. Difficult to find the cold front
given widespread convection, but it appears to stretch from
northern AR through northern OK and into the TX Panhandle.

Once storms push southeast this morning, not expecting much in the
way of showers/storms through the remainder of the day. Cold
front will remain well south of the forecast area today. Storms
are expected to develop this afternoon over northeast CO/nw
KS/sw Nebraska as we get back into some upslope flow. This
activity will track southeast this evening but should die off
before they make it into the western portion of our forecast
area.

There is good model agreement that an MCS will track across
western/central Nebraska late tonight into Tue morning and may try
and make it down into northern KS by Tue afternoon. This will be
associated with a cold front that is also expected to move into the
area, and could be aided by outflow from MCS. We are expecting
storms to become more widespread Tue night as another weak
mid/upper perturbation comes across the Rockies and sets up good low
level jet convergence across the area. Severe storms and heavy rain
will be possible with this activity and it may linger into Wed
morning.

The same overall setup is anticipated for Wed through Thu morning,
with storms developing over the High Plains and rolling east through
the overnight hours. This would mean another nighttime MCS for much
of KS. Upper pattern will start to flatten out for Thu into Fri with
a series of upper impulses moving into the area, keeping high
storm chances in. It appears we may finally get a break from
this wet pattern for the weekend, as a deep upper trough digs
across the northwest CONUS, lifting the front north and warming
mid level temps enough to limit storm chances.

Confidence remains high in below normal temps continuing through
Fri, with highs in the 80s. A warm-up is anticipated to start for
the weekend with highs back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A complex of storms continues to move south and east across south
central KS. These storms should near ICT, but not reach the terminal
over the first two hours of the period.

Behind that complex of storms, MVFR to IFR cigs will continue to
overspread central Kansas through the first few hours of the period.
Ceilings will lift during the late morning hours (16Z to 18Z) with
mostly clear skies prevailing through the afternoon. Some high and
mid-level clouds will spread back into the region Monday evening,
generally after 00Z.

Winds remain generally east-northeasterly through the period less
than 12kts for all terminals.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CFH