255 FXUS63 KICT 010419 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1119 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms possible late afternoon-evening which could be strong to severe. - Active weather pattern continues into next week with multiple rain/storm chances from late Monday through the end of the week including the potential for severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Thoughts for this afternoon and evening remain mostly on track although the upper-level wave is moving slower than previously forecasted. So while we are getting some lift with the front as it drops south through the area (as of 3 pm the front was located from near Pratt to Emporia), temperatures aloft remain warm hence development has struggled so far this afternoon as the cap remains in place. Temperatures aloft will continue to cool, so more robust shower and thunderstorm development is expected with the front and trailing wind shift convergence zone as we go through the late afternoon and early evening especially as lift from the upper-level wave increases. Damaging winds remain the main threat with any storm that develops through this evening although hail up to the size of quarters may also be possible with the strongest storms. Upper-level ridging will move overhead tomorrow leading to a dry day with temperatures remaining in the 80s. This ridge will also be responsible for bringing some wildfire smoke from Canada overhead especially tomorrow afternoon and evening hence the sky may appear hazy. For any potential aurora viewing tomorrow night, skies will remain clear through the late night hours however the smoke will linger which will make it even more challenging to see. Low clouds will expand northward early Monday morning which is a sign of a change in the pattern as southerly winds and moisture advection return to the region as the ridge begins to slide east of us. This will keep the daylight hours dry once again with high temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 80s. The upper-level pattern will take on a more southwesterly flow late Monday and remain that way through the remainder of next week allowing for more unsettled weather to impact the region. The first chance at precipitation will be Monday evening into early Tuesday morning as convection develops to the west and slides east through the night as a shortwave moves into the Four Corners. The convective evolution for Tuesday remains in question as WAA may keep showers and thunderstorms going through the morning hours which muddies the picture for severe storms later in the day although that potential certainly exists and will need to be watched as the front and shortwave swings through during the afternoon hours. The front will knock temperatures down for Wednesday with high temperatures only in the mid 70s. Unsettled weather and near normal temperatures will remain possible through at least the end of next week as several additional waves move through the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed across portions of southern and eastern KS. Impacts are likely in the vicinity of CNU through 7-8Z. Satellite trends suggest a slight chance exists for -TSRA near ICT through 8Z but confidence is too low for any prevailing mention at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with light and variable winds. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WI AVIATION...BRF