146 FXUS63 KTOP 110540 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1240 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions are forecast to build into the region through the end of the week. - There continues to be a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and storms Thursday and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 19Z water vapor imagery showed a MCS over east TX with additional convection developing under a weak cyclonic wave over NM. Northwest flow was noted across the central and northern plains as an upper trough approached the northern CA coast. Surface obs showed weak surface ridging weakening over the central plains with surface pressure falling along the lee of the central Rockies. For tonight and Wednesday, the weather should remain quiet with a general lack of forcing impacting the forecast area. There was a bit of ground fog in the KS river valley this morning, but conditions appear to be less favorable Wednesday morning with a little more wind in the boundary layer progged by the models. Additionally the afternoon dewpoints have mixed out into the upper 40s making it unlikely temperatures make it to the cross over temp for radiational fog. On Wednesday, a gradual deepening of pressure over the WY high plains should allow winds to become more southerly and advect higher dewpoints north through the day. This is forecast to lead to a conditionally unstable airmass over parts of eastern KS in the afternoon with surface based CAPE around 1500 J/kg. Again there does not appear to be any forcing or lift for an updraft to get going, so have left POPs around 10 percent. Late Wednesday night and Thursday, the models still try to lift the upper wave over TX into southeast KS. The trend in the 12Z models has been to keep the wave further southeast. But a moist airmass with little inhibition could still allow for some scattered showers and storms. So have continued with some 20 to 35 percent POPs for much of the area. Potential for severe weather is low (less than 5 percent) as forecast soundings show lapse rates near the moist adiabat and bulk shear is pretty weak at only 10 to 20 knots. Increased cloud cover and cooler mid level temps with the upper disturbance is expected to keep highs on Thursday a few degrees cooler in the 80s. There is little change to the forecast for Friday through Sunday as cluster analysis of the 00Z ensembles continues to show little difference from the mean pattern. 12Z models are starting to show a little more amplification with mid level heights across NM and CO by Sunday. The potential for disturbances within the pattern makes it difficult to rule out precip chances so have stuck with the NBM which keeps mainly slight chances over parts of the area through the weekend. The operational solutions are starting to hint at the possibility for overnight MCS activity that could impact the forecast area into the first part of next week. This is not hard to imaging given a relatively high theta-e airmass and northwest flow progged. But the predictability of these mesoscale features is low in this time frame so it is something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Temps are expected to remain warm but not crazy hot with highs around 90 and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There may be a few showers this evening around the terminals. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Gargan