076
FXUS63 KTOP 220809
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier air moves in Today behind a front.

- Active pattern continues Tuesday through Friday with cool
  temperatures and multiple chances for rain and storms.

- Heating back up for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026


Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air
analysis showed an upper trough extending from northern IN,
southwest to southeast OK. The northern stream of the upper jet
extended from western Canada, east-southeast across south central
Canada across and the northern States. An upper level trough
embedded in the northern stream was located across south central
Canada and MT, with a second upper trough located southeast of the
Hudson Bay region into northern MI.

The 6Z surface map showed a cold front extending from northwest OH,
southwest across southern MO, then into northern OK, and west across
the TX PNHDL and northeast NM. A perturbations was located across
south central KS and was tracking southeast. A line of severe
thunderstorms extended from the OK/KS border south of ICT, southwest
along the surface front across northwest OK. These storms will remain
well south of the CWA during the early morning hours.


Today through Tonight:

Northeast surface winds behind the front, plus morning cloud cover
will keep highs Today in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday through Wednesday night:

The H5 trough across south central Canada and MT will dig east-
southeast across the northern Plains. A more amplified perturbation
will dig southeast on the southern end of the H5 trough, moving
across the northern Plains Tuesday night. Thunderstorms will develop
across western KS and move southeast across the CWA during the
overnight hours of Tuesday. There may be some widely scattered
showers and storm that develop during the late afternoon hours across
north central KS, due to the richer moisture return into western KS.
The main instability axis will stretch from northern OK into western
KS by Tuesday afternoon. There will be better chance for severe
thunderstorms across southwest and south central KS Tuesday evening.
Most CAMs show only 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE developing across north
central KS. Given the effective shear of 40 to 50 KTS, I cannot rule
out a few marginally severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
through the night across the western and southern counties of the
CWA. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazards.

Wednesday night, thunderstorms that develop across the high plains
of eastern CO may congeal into line segments of severe storms. The
Nam12 shows the axis of higher instability shifting southward into
northern OK, then extending northwest into western KS. At this time
it looks as if the complex of severe storms Wednesday evening will
move southeast into northern OK through the night.

Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s

Thursday through Saturday:

Weak perturbations, embedded in the zonal flow, will move east across
the Plains providing chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Both
the ECMWF and GFS show a more amplified perturbation moving across KS
Thursday night into Friday, so with the stronger ascent there maybe
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. The richer moisture may
return across the central Plains, so there may be another chance for
marginally strong to severe storms and perhaps more heavy rainfall.

An amplified H5 trough will move onshore across the western US early
Saturday. The rain chances should begin to decrease as a down stream
H5 ridge begins to amplify across the Plains.

Highs will continue in the lower 80s Thursday and Friday. Look for a
warmup into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Saturday night through Monday:

The extended range models are in agreement as the H5 trough across
the western US amplifies, a down stream H5 ridge will amplify across
the MS River Valley. Look for hot and humid conditions to develop
Sunday into Monday. Highs on Monday will reach into the lower and mid
90s. Afternoon heat indices will be in the 100 to 107 degree range
Sunday afternoon.

As the H5 trough across the western US begins to lift north east
across the central Rockies on Monday, a lee surface trough will
deepen across the central high Plains, and south-southwesterly winds
will increase allowing for deeper mixing. Thus, the heat indicies
will only reach the upper 90s to around 103 degrees, even though high
temperatures will reach the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Expect marginal VFR cigs overnight and possibly a short period of IFR
cigs may occur after 09-10Z to an hour or so after sunrise.
Confidence is too low to include IFR so have gone with SCT mention
for now. An easterly breeze remains through the period with mixing
helping to scatter and lift clouds into mid-morning to midday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake