126
FXUS63 KTOP 082303
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
603 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Low chance (15-20%) for an isolated shower or storm Wednesday
  night into Thursday morning.

- A passing cold front Saturday into Sunday brings cooler
  temperatures for the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Weak northwest flow aloft persists across the Central Plains this
afternoon with a mid-level ridge confined to far southwest US into
Mexico. Winds have become slightly more southerly today with the
surface high pressure centered over Missouri. As a result,
temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in
the mid 70s to low 80s. Even warmer temperatures are expected
Wednesday into the end of the week as the mid-level ridge tries to
nudge northeast into the area. 850mb temperatures of 16-20 degrees C
under mostly sunny skies will translate to highs in the mid 80s to
around 90 degrees each day, which is 15-20 degrees above normal for
this time of year. The only chance for precipitation in the next 7
days comes Wednesday night into Thursday morning as slightly higher
theta-e air moves in ahead of a compact upper low that will dive
south across the Central Plains. Ascent is not very robust and the
depth of moisture remains in question, but the passing of this wave
could (15-20% chance) spark a few showers or even an isolated storm
given some elevated instability.

A potent shortwave the moves across the northern CONUS Saturday into
Sunday, shunting a strong cold front through the area. A dry frontal
passage is favored given very dry low-level air and best forcing
displaced well north, but much cooler temperatures will be ushered
in behind the front. Uncertainty remains in exactly how cool it will
be with an 8-10 degree spread between the NBM 25th-75th percentiles.
The current forecast resides around the 50th percentile with highs
in the upper 60s and low 70s on Sunday falling further into the low
to mid 60s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue throughout the
period, along with light southeast to southerly winds. Wind
speeds will be around or below 5 kts tonight, and 5-10 kts
during the day tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Reese