865 FXUS63 KTOP 020527 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty south winds return tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph in north central Kansas. - Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into north central Kansas late Monday evening, spreading across the entire area through Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through. A few severe storms may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Cooler temps for the remainder of the week with occasional shower/storm chances throughout the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Upper ridge axis building into the central CONUS this afternoon with a departing embedded trough into the lower Mississippi region. Upstream cutoff low is entering the southern CA coastline while a northern stream shortwave trough enters the Pac NW region. The southerly flow throughout eastern KS will continue to bring smoky skies this afternoon, anticipated to shift eastward this evening. After light winds today and tonight, south winds increase as a sfc troughing builds over eastern CO. Next chance of rain arrives late Monday evening as the positively tilted trough breaks into several vort maxes as it traverses the central plains. Initial convergence comes from an approaching cold front from the northwest, anticipating widespread showers and storms to impact northeast Kansas late Monday evening into Tuesday afternoon as the cold front surges southeast. Forecast soundings exhibit weak mid level shear while elevated instability maxes near 1000 J/KG so overall severe probs are low Monday evening. Isolated severe storms may develop with damaging outflow winds and large hail possible in north central areas. Latest guidance with the timing on the falling heights aloft suggest showers/storms will continue east throughout the day Tuesday. Given the cloud cover and stabilizing showers and storms anticipated, it`s difficult to discern the coverage of additional severe convection redeveloping in the late afternoon. If any clearing were to occur, severe chances increase especially over far eastern Kansas where most guidance has the front setup by late afternoon. If additional storms form, a few may become severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the most probable hazards. Based on the progressive nature of the cold front, confidence in flooding is low however cannot rule out a heavier thunderstorm causing short term flash and/or river flooding, especially as high PWAT values to 1.8 inches suggest fairly efficient rainfall rates. Drier airmass follows behind the front on Wednesday bringing highs back to the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Precip chances return once again Wednesday evening into the weekend as a series of slow moving upper troughs traverse the region. Cluster analysis show differing 500 mb heights/timing amongst ensemble guidance and therefore high uncertainty in rain chances, let alone QPF amounts. This will have an impact on temps that are currently forecast to remain below normal in the low-mid 70s. A washout is certainly not expected, and probs for severe storms remain low based on the timing and mode for convection. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions should persist. South winds off the surface increase over the next several hours which should mitigate shallow ground fog formation. Some gusts should develop around 18Z and likely will persist after sunset as a moderate low-level jet forms. Chances for convection appear too low for inclusion through this forecast but increase late. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Poage