605 FXUS63 KDDC 011715 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There are medium to high t-storm chances Monday afternoon through Tuesday, some severe with large hail and damaging winds. - After a warming trend today and Monday, expect much cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. - There are small to medium chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms every day Wednesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 An upper level trough will approach the high plains by Monday. Ahead of this system, a strong surge of low level moisture is expected, along with a return to south winds and warmer temperatures. A few scattered to isolated thunderstorms are forecast for Monday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the dry line. These storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Given the weakness of the system and associated mid to high level wind field, the tornado potential is low. The main driver for a strong frontal passage is an intense upper level trough passing across the northern plains Tuesday morning at the same time the aforementioned weaker system is traversing the central and southern plains. As the cold front arrives Monday night, a line of storms will form along the front and sweep southeastward. The best chance of storms with this line is along and east of a line from Scott City to Dodge City to Coldwater (60-80%), with high winds being the main concern given a linear storm mode. Showers and non-severe thunderstorms will linger behind the front Tuesday until the upper disturbance passes, along with much cooler temperatures. In fact, temperatures may hold steady or fall to near 60 at Scott City in the afternoon and 70 at Medicine Lodge. The EPS ensemble mean is faster with the front than the GEPS, which could result in highs only in the 50s to mid 60s across all of southwest Kansas and central Kansas. North winds at 20-35 and cloud cover will make it feel even chillier. An active weather pattern will persist across the United States mid to late next week, with strong passages of upper level troughs and associated fronts. Given that moisture is typically close by this time of year, there should be at least marginal to moderate instability in place ahead of these systems. Given how wet it`s been across the southern plains in recent weeks, residual moisture from evapotranspiration will be in place regardless of whether the richer moisture from the tropics makes it as far north as Kansas. There is some potential for severe weather later in the weak as the upper level winds increase from the west and low level winds remain easterly to southerly, resulting in sufficient wind shear. However, the timing of individual t-storms and t-storm clusters has very low predictability in this regime. We are entering that time of year when organized clusters of thunderstorms tend to roll eastward across the high plains and into the central plains during the evening and overnight. The current forecast indicates 20-50% chances for thunderstorms every day from Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current south to southeast winds aob 12 kts will continue through the overnight period. Shortly after sunrise Monday morning, winds will begin to increase out of the south, reaching the 15-20 kt range gusting to 25-30 kts by 14-16Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Springer