605
FXUS63 KDDC 011715
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are medium to high t-storm chances Monday afternoon
  through Tuesday, some severe with large hail and damaging
  winds.

- After a warming trend today and Monday, expect much cooler
  temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There are small to medium chances (20-50%) for showers and
  thunderstorms every day Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025


An upper level trough will approach the high plains by Monday.
Ahead of this system, a strong surge of low level moisture is
expected, along with a return to south winds and warmer
temperatures. A few scattered to isolated thunderstorms are
forecast for Monday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the
dry line. These storms could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds. Given the weakness of the system and associated
mid to high level wind field, the tornado potential is low. The
main driver for a strong frontal passage is an intense upper
level trough passing across the northern plains Tuesday morning
at the same time the aforementioned weaker system is traversing
the central and southern plains. As the cold front arrives
Monday night, a line of storms will form along the front and
sweep southeastward. The best chance of storms with this line is
along and east of a line from Scott City to Dodge City to
Coldwater (60-80%), with high winds being the main concern
given a linear storm mode. Showers and non-severe thunderstorms
will linger behind the front Tuesday until the upper disturbance
passes, along with much cooler temperatures. In fact,
temperatures may hold steady or fall to near 60 at Scott City in
the afternoon and 70 at Medicine Lodge. The EPS ensemble mean
is faster with the front than the GEPS, which could result in
highs only in the 50s to mid 60s across all of southwest Kansas
and central Kansas. North winds at 20-35 and cloud cover will
make it feel even chillier.

An active weather pattern will persist across the United States
mid to late next week, with strong passages of upper level
troughs and associated fronts. Given that moisture is typically
close by this time of year, there should be at least marginal
to moderate instability in place ahead of these systems. Given
how wet it`s been across the southern plains in recent weeks,
residual moisture from evapotranspiration will be in place
regardless of whether the richer moisture from the tropics makes
it as far north as Kansas. There is some potential for severe
weather later in the weak as the upper level winds increase from
the west and low level winds remain easterly to southerly,
resulting in sufficient wind shear. However, the timing of
individual t-storms and t-storm clusters has very low
predictability in this regime. We are entering that time of
year when organized clusters of thunderstorms tend to roll
eastward across the high plains and into the central plains
during the evening and overnight. The current forecast indicates
20-50% chances for thunderstorms every day from Wednesday
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
south to southeast winds aob 12 kts will continue through the
overnight period. Shortly after sunrise Monday morning, winds
will begin to increase out of the south, reaching the 15-20 kt
range gusting to 25-30 kts by 14-16Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Springer