055
FXUS63 KDDC 090400
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still some hazy skies from wildfire smoke

- High temperatures will stay warmer than normal through Sunday

- Cold front on Sunday but no real chance of measurable
precipitation over at least the next 7 days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

19z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows we have a surface
high centered over northern Missouri with a weak trough of low
pressure in western Kansas which is leading to our light and
variable winds as the pressure gradient is very relaxed.  A large
mid and upper level ridge is still in place through the western
CONUS and the morning shortwave has passed into eastern Kansas with
a developing shortwave and upper low near Rapid City, SD.

Overall in the short term outside of another round of upper level
smoke coming in from the northwest we should once again see filtered
sunshine and light winds on Wednesday with our high temperatures
slightly warmer due to a weak wind shift boundary mainly along the
US 283 corridor. We should see highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The shortwave/upper low combo will move from South Dakota to
central Kansas by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. NAM is
most aggressive with precipitation developing mainly around
Wichita to northwest Oklahoma and the other CAMs keep us dry.
Given the relative lack of moisture near the surface we will
mainly see some passing clouds and maybe a sprinkle in the Red
Hills at most. HREF ensembles are keeping us at around 0% chance
of any moisture greater than 0.01 inch. Temperatures should
continue to warm as we will have plenty of sun and light
westerly winds both Thursday and Friday as highs will be in the
80s to near 90.

Long term ensemble clusters with the upper level winds keep the
ridge in place for the central and western portions of the CONUS
through Saturday.  A large longwave trough will develop in the Great
Lakes by Sunday which is forecast to bring cooler air in from the
north. We should see highs drop into the 70s on Sunday but no
rain is expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR expected through TAF pd. Light and variable winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Sugden