637 FXUS63 KDDC 100339 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS 1039 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions today and tomorrow, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. - Isolated sub-severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. - Quick return to warm and dry conditions on Friday, continuing through the end of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a rather amplified pattern across the CONUS, with a longwave ridge west of the Rockies, and a trough centered over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure is spread out across nearly the entire High Plains ahead of the western ridge, leading to light winds and cloudless skies above southwest KS. Temperatures have already risen into the upper 70s to mid 80s under the strong solar insolation, and will inch up another few degrees through the remainder of the afternoon for highs in the mid/upper 80s. Overnight, continued clear skies and light winds will optimize radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 50s north to the low 60s south. Little change is expected to the sensible weather across southwest KS daytime Tuesday, as guidance indicates the upper ridge will slide eastward and slightly dampen, maintaining a dry and quiet regime. A combination of 850-mb temperatures increasing by a few degrees and modest south-southwesterly downsloping winds will result in an uptick in temperatures, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. Locations within the Red Hills may even approach the mid 90s. Wednesday and Thursday, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will have largely dampened out, leaving generally zonal flow across the Rockies. This evolution, along with a weak shortwave trough ejecting northeast from the Four Corners region, will support marginally cooler temperatures and a return of precipitation chances during the afternoon both days, likely in the form of sub-severe thunderstorms. However, convective coverage will be minimal at best, and most areas will stay dry. Friday and beyond, the GEFS and ECMWF EPS suggest upper level ridging will rebuild over the central and western CONUS, yielding a return of the warm/dry conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period with VFR/SKC and light winds. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Turner