276 FXUS63 KEAX 312341 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 641 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoky/hazy skies through the weekend. - Showers and storms late this afternoon and evening primarily for eastern KS/western MO. A few strong storms are possible. - Warm and humid conditions continue through Monday. Temperatures peak on Monday with highs expected to range in the upper 80s. - Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Hazy skies this weekend due to smoke from wildfires in Canada. Steady northerly upper level flow through Sunday suggests the potential for these conditions to last through the weekend. The chances for some of the smoke to mix down to the surface appear low, however minimal impacts to visibility and air quality are possible. An upper level ridge over the Rockies continues to move east which has allowed temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. A shortwave over SD riding the outer edge of the ridge is expected to continue its track to the south and enter the region providing a chance for showers and storms this afternoon into the evening mainly for eastern KS/western MO. A few storms could be severe with good instability and marginal shear. CAPE values across most of the area ranging from 1,500-2,000 J/kg with a pocket of 3,000 J/kg in eastern KS. Bulk shear values range around 40-50 kts over eastern KS which will aid in storm formation. DCAPE values ranging from 1,000-1,100 J/kg and significant dry air aloft, indicated by model soundings, suggest damaging winds as a likely threat with the strongest storms. Given the steep lapse rates and CAPE values, quarter-sized hail is also a possibility. Recent CAMs show storms developing along the northeastern KS/MO border this afternoon and tracking to the south through early Sunday morning. Warm and humid conditions continue through Monday as the upper ridge axis moves over our area. Highs for Monday anticipated to range in the upper 80s. The NBM shows a 50%-60% chance of areas in northwestern MO to reach the 90s. Tuesday, mid to upper level troughing results in leeward cyclogenesis over eastern CO. This system will push a cold front through the area providing lift for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Models are remaining consistent with the severe potential. CAPE values exceeding 2,000 J/kg, steep H500-H700 lapse rates, DCAPE values around 500-800, and bulk shear values ranging from 40-50 kts suggest the potential threats will be damaging winds and hail. PWATs around 2 inches, which is in the climatological max percentile, across the area suggest the potential for efficient, rain-producing storms. StormTotalQPF shows roughly 1-1.5 inches area-wide. Temperatures decrease on the backside of the cold front. Highs for Wednesday and Thursday range in the 70s which is roughly 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals. Extended guidance suggests an active pattern for the second half of next week as a series of shortwaves move through the area giving us multiple chances for rain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 SHRA with isolated TSRA are developing around the terminals. Most RA activity is expected to miss the terminals and should move out of the area around 04Z this evening. Winds become NW with some intermittent gusts behind the boundary. Winds become light and variable overnight. There is a chance for BR near sunrise; however, potential VIS impacts remain minimal. Smoke aloft keeps high BKN coverage. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Pesel