531
FXUS63 KEAX 081144
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms will be possible this afternoon along an
  approaching cold front.

- Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
  hazards.

- Warm and humid conditions are likely to arrive by mid week and
  continue into the weekend.

- Unsettled weather is probable for Thursday and into the
  weekend, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

500 mb heights overlaid on water vapor imagery shows the center
of the closed mid level low spinning just northwest of Winnipeg,
with accompanying mid/upper troughing extending southward into
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, the cold
front extends southward through Minnesota, curving back toward
the southwest through NW Iowa and into SE Nebraska. Similar to
yesterday morning, fog has developed across central and north
central/northeastern Missouri (albeit not quite as dense as
yesterday). This fog should mix out by around 8 to 9 am this
morning. The northern upper trough will continue to descend
southward toward our region through the morning hours and into
early afternoon, with the southern extent of a band of 50+ knot
westerly mid level winds moving over the region by early
afternoon. Meanwhile, the surface cold front is progged to enter
into NW Missouri by around 10 am, with the front roughly
extending from Kansas City up to Kirksville by around 2 pm and
from Butler to Boonville by around 5 pm. Along and ahead of the
front, surface based CAPE should range from around 1250 J/kg
across north central MO to as high as 2500 J/kg south of Kansas
City. CAM guidance suggests isolated convective initiation
around 3 pm toward central Missouri, with CI along the front
near or just south of KC by around 4 pm. With deep layer shear
on the order of 40 knots thanks to the enhanced westerly mid
level winds, updrafts should become well organized, with severe
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially very
large hail - 2" plus) and damaging wind gusts. The 00z HREF
highlights areas south of the KC metro in the 4 to 7 pm time
frame for the best chance for severe storms, where instability
and mid level lapse rates will be most favorable for explosive
updrafts. Additional elevated convective development is likely
behind the surface cold front along the 925/850 mb front, but
this convection will be much less likely to be severe. Any
linger showers and storms should exit the CWA to the southeast
by late tonight.

Slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather is expected to
come behind the front for Monday as the closed mid level low is
progged to move over northern Lake Superior with strong WNW mid
level flow over our region. The mid to upper low and
accompanying trough exits to the east on Tuesday, with mid level
ridging building in by Tuesday afternoon and continuing into
Wednesday. This will yield warmer temperatures with highs into
the mid 80s across the region for Tuesday and the mid to upper
80s for Wednesday afternoon, with southerly winds ushering in
higher dewpoints as well for Wed afternoon.

Unsettled weather and shower/storm chances return for Thursday
and into the weekend as models suggest troughing developing over
the Southern Plains and remaining somewhat stagnant, with a
closed mid level low progged to develop and enter into the
Ozarks by Saturday. Warm and humid conditions should continue,
with afternoon highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints generally in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Currently VFR conditions at the KC metro terminals with fog
reducing VIS to 3SM at STJ, but fog should mix out by around 13z
to 14z this morning. A cold front should move through STJ by
around 17z, MCI by around 18z, and MKC and IXD by around 19z,
turning winds to north northwesterly. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible around the KC metro terminals
between roughly 20z and 0z this afternoon/evening. Winds will
eventually become westerly and light by later this evening, with
VFR conditions persisting through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW