531 FXUS63 KEAX 081144 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms will be possible this afternoon along an approaching cold front. - Very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. - Warm and humid conditions are likely to arrive by mid week and continue into the weekend. - Unsettled weather is probable for Thursday and into the weekend, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 500 mb heights overlaid on water vapor imagery shows the center of the closed mid level low spinning just northwest of Winnipeg, with accompanying mid/upper troughing extending southward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, the cold front extends southward through Minnesota, curving back toward the southwest through NW Iowa and into SE Nebraska. Similar to yesterday morning, fog has developed across central and north central/northeastern Missouri (albeit not quite as dense as yesterday). This fog should mix out by around 8 to 9 am this morning. The northern upper trough will continue to descend southward toward our region through the morning hours and into early afternoon, with the southern extent of a band of 50+ knot westerly mid level winds moving over the region by early afternoon. Meanwhile, the surface cold front is progged to enter into NW Missouri by around 10 am, with the front roughly extending from Kansas City up to Kirksville by around 2 pm and from Butler to Boonville by around 5 pm. Along and ahead of the front, surface based CAPE should range from around 1250 J/kg across north central MO to as high as 2500 J/kg south of Kansas City. CAM guidance suggests isolated convective initiation around 3 pm toward central Missouri, with CI along the front near or just south of KC by around 4 pm. With deep layer shear on the order of 40 knots thanks to the enhanced westerly mid level winds, updrafts should become well organized, with severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially very large hail - 2" plus) and damaging wind gusts. The 00z HREF highlights areas south of the KC metro in the 4 to 7 pm time frame for the best chance for severe storms, where instability and mid level lapse rates will be most favorable for explosive updrafts. Additional elevated convective development is likely behind the surface cold front along the 925/850 mb front, but this convection will be much less likely to be severe. Any linger showers and storms should exit the CWA to the southeast by late tonight. Slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather is expected to come behind the front for Monday as the closed mid level low is progged to move over northern Lake Superior with strong WNW mid level flow over our region. The mid to upper low and accompanying trough exits to the east on Tuesday, with mid level ridging building in by Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday. This will yield warmer temperatures with highs into the mid 80s across the region for Tuesday and the mid to upper 80s for Wednesday afternoon, with southerly winds ushering in higher dewpoints as well for Wed afternoon. Unsettled weather and shower/storm chances return for Thursday and into the weekend as models suggest troughing developing over the Southern Plains and remaining somewhat stagnant, with a closed mid level low progged to develop and enter into the Ozarks by Saturday. Warm and humid conditions should continue, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Currently VFR conditions at the KC metro terminals with fog reducing VIS to 3SM at STJ, but fog should mix out by around 13z to 14z this morning. A cold front should move through STJ by around 17z, MCI by around 18z, and MKC and IXD by around 19z, turning winds to north northwesterly. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible around the KC metro terminals between roughly 20z and 0z this afternoon/evening. Winds will eventually become westerly and light by later this evening, with VFR conditions persisting through the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW