544 FXUS63 KEAX 021107 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 607 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms move into the area early Tuesday morning and continue through the day. - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. - Unsettled weather pattern persists through much of the week with multiple rounds of showers and storms likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Upper-level ridging will spread eastward into the middle of the country today. Increasing low-level flow will help temperatures climb into the middle to upper 80s, with a few locations potentially climbing above 90. Probabilities (30-50%) for this are highest in our northwestern zones. Westerly mid and upper-level flow will help to push smoke to the east of the area today as well, so we should see a decrease in hazy/smoky skies from west to east as the day progresses. Tonight, mainly after midnight, showers and storms will begin to spread across eastern KS and into western MO as a shortwave tracks east out of the Rockies and into KS. Strong low-level flow ahead of this shortwave will transport rich moisture northward into the area. Strong and progressively deeper ascent, will lead to development of widespread showers and storms early Tuesday morning. The HREF shows mean MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Mean shear is relatively weak though and lags behind the greatest MUCAPE. This suggest the potential for severe storms overnight is fairly low. But given the instability and strong forcing, can`t rule out some stronger storms with this early activity. The greater potential for strong to severe storms will come later in the day, mainly late afternoon into the evening hours as a front moves through the area. But even this has a fair amount of uncertainty. With widespread showers and storms anticipated through the day, there will be limited opportunity to build stronger instability. HREF mean MUCAPE remains in the 1000 to potentially 2000 J/kg range with this concentrated in our southeastern zones. LREF shows probabilities of exceeding 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and deep-layer shear greater than 30kts ranging from roughly 60% midday in eastern KS and western MO, to roughly 50% by the evening hours in our eastern zones. Given these probabilities, scattered severe storms look possible. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard. Hail looks less likely given relative weak lapse rates, indicative the deep moisture associated with this system. Tornado potential is low in this setup. With regards to moisture, heavy rain and potential for flash flooding continue to look more likely with this system. Precipitable water values continue look to be in the 1.75" to 2" range, with is pushing the 99th percentile for the area. Low-level flow continues to look parallel to the boundary as it moves through the region. MBE vectors continue to support slow moving and training storms. However, current guidance keeps the front progressive so that may limit residence time of training storms. Overall, this system is likely to bring widespread 1-3" rain amounts. This will be in a northwest to southeast, lower to higher, gradient. Some areas in our east may see in excess of 3" and would not be surprised if there pockets of higher amounts as well. For the later half of the week, an unsettled weather pattern seems likely with multiple shortwaves moving into the middle of the country. Models show a persistent southern stream jet over the southwestern US, on the northern periphery of broad ridge over Mexico. Instability may be an issue Wednesday into Thursday as we`ll be in a post frontal regime. However, later in the week, instability may start to increase. And with stronger flow aloft, shear will be favorable. So any impulse that moves through with the faster flow aloft, into the Central and Eastern Plains will need to be watched for additional activity. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Outside of some light valley fog at STJ, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Winds will increase from the south today with gusts of 20-25 kts likely this afternoon. Wind decrease some with loss of daytime heating but then increase again overnight ahead of an area of showers and storms that will be tracking eastward across KS and into MO in the last few hours of this forecast. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB