709 FXUS63 KTOP 092300 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 600 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid weather is forecast by the middle of the week and into the weekend. - There are off and on chances (20%-30%) for showers and storms for Thursday through next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the Great Lakes with broad ridging over the west. There was a weak area of shear and upper level cyclonic flow over the southwest. Surface obs placed a surface low over the UP of Michigan with a trailing frontal boundary through AR and into northeast TX. Relative high pressure was noted over the high plains and into the central plains. Quiet weather is forecast for the next few days as models show northwest flow persisting through Tuesday. There is some indication from the short term models for moisture advection into southeast and east central KS Tuesday afternoon with some modest surface based instability developing. However models show no lift or forcing so have kept a dry forecast going. Better moisture advection is progged to take place into Wednesday with more typical summer time humidity progged to set up into the weekend. The next chance for precip looks to develop late Wednesday and into Thursday as the weak cyclonic flow over the southwest amplifies and eventually lifts into eastern KS. Probabilities from the NBM are in the 20 to 30 percent range and this seems reasonable given the forecast QPF. For Friday through Monday, models show a low amplitude pattern over the central plains with potential perturbations within the flow. Cluster analysis of the 00Z ensembles showed there was not a lot of differences from the mean. This leads to thinking the NBM is probably a good forecast with little reason to change it. So low end chances for precip remain in the forecast with a warm and humid airmass expected to persist. Models show reasonable instability driven by daytime heating each afternoon, but with no obvious forcing mechanism to trigger convection severe weather appears to be very conditional. Additionally upper level jet stream is progged to lift north across the US and Canadian border bringing weaker flow over the plains and lower bulk shear values. So there isn`t an obvious time frame that severe storms look favorable. Highs are expected to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s while overnight lows only fall into the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR with high pressure overhead and light and variable winds throughout the forecast period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Prieto