817 FXUS63 KTOP 112338 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - First 90 degree day of the year this afternoon. - Staying seasonably warm into early next week, highs mid 80s to low 90s. - Low (10-30%) chances for scattered pop-up showers/storms Thursday through Sunday, but most of the time will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows broad upper ridging centered over the central Plains. Trapped to the south of this ridge is a weak cut-off low over Texas. This low will gradually lift to the northeast over the next few days, becoming a focus for scattered light showers and thunderstorms. In the meantime, the upper ridging coupled with southerly flow and mostly sunny skies have allowed temperatures to warm nicely across the area. In fact, Topeka has already hit 90 for the first time this year, a few weeks later than the average first 90 degree day of May 17. The warm and moist airmass is nearly uncapped, so can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or storm this afternoon. However to the west of a weak convergent boundary in northwest Missouri, there is very little forcing for ascent to actually develop storms. So will stick with a dry forecast for now. Tomorrow into early Saturday, precipitation chances will increase slightly as the aforementioned cut-off low moves northeast. The track of this low looks to be slightly southeast of us, keeping the highest rain coverage across southeast KS and into MO. Still, with some limited forcing and a moist/uncapped airmass, a few showers and storms will be possible across east-central KS. Severe weather weather seems rather unlikely given weak effective shear around or below 10 kts. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be influenced mainly by cloud cover, staying in the low/mid 80s across east- central KS but warming to near 90 towards north-central portions of the state. Ridging expands across the area Saturday into the first part of next week, allowing for more widespread temperatures near 90 each day. The ridge axis does look to stay a bit to our southwest, with a very weak trough axis lingering over the lower Mississippi Valley. As stronger West Coast trough develops, this will send a series of weak disturbances moving west/southwest across the Plains. The low- amplitude and weak nature of these systems results in low predictability for now - typical for an early summer pattern like this. But the overall does look moderately favorable for continued precipitation chances, particularly with convection that develops over the High Plains and moves east-southeast towards the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Winds remain southerly through the period increasing by mid to late morning with a few gusts through the afternoon. Clouds generally increase by morning with precipitation chances likely remaining southeast of the terminals. Only a shallow saturated layer may develop helping to bring in a SCT or BKN deck of clouds. Expecting the BKN layer to remain above marginal VFR levels for now as forecast soundings aren`t consistent on bringing in clouds below FL030. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Drake