817
FXUS63 KTOP 112338
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First 90 degree day of the year this afternoon.

- Staying seasonably warm into early next week, highs mid 80s to low
90s.

- Low (10-30%) chances for scattered pop-up showers/storms Thursday
through Sunday, but most of the time will stay dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows broad upper ridging
centered over the central Plains. Trapped to the south of this ridge
is a weak cut-off low over Texas. This low will gradually lift to
the northeast over the next few days, becoming a focus for scattered
light showers and thunderstorms. In the meantime, the upper ridging
coupled with southerly flow and mostly sunny skies have allowed
temperatures to warm nicely across the area. In fact, Topeka has
already hit 90 for the first time this year, a few weeks later than
the average first 90 degree day of May 17. The warm and moist
airmass is nearly uncapped, so can`t completely rule out an isolated
shower or storm this afternoon. However to the west of a weak
convergent boundary in northwest Missouri, there is very little
forcing for ascent to actually develop storms. So will stick with a
dry forecast for now.

Tomorrow into early Saturday, precipitation chances will increase
slightly as the aforementioned cut-off low moves northeast. The
track of this low looks to be slightly southeast of us, keeping the
highest rain coverage across southeast KS and into MO. Still, with
some limited forcing and a moist/uncapped airmass, a few showers and
storms will be possible across east-central KS. Severe weather
weather seems rather unlikely given weak effective shear around or
below 10 kts. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be influenced
mainly by cloud cover, staying in the low/mid 80s across east-
central KS but warming to near 90 towards north-central portions of
the state.

Ridging expands across the area Saturday into the first part of next
week, allowing for more widespread temperatures near 90 each day.
The ridge axis does look to stay a bit to our southwest, with a very
weak trough axis lingering over the lower Mississippi Valley. As
stronger West Coast trough develops, this will send a series of weak
disturbances moving west/southwest across the Plains. The low-
amplitude and weak nature of these systems results in low
predictability for now - typical for an early summer pattern like
this. But the overall does look moderately favorable for continued
precipitation chances, particularly with convection that develops
over the High Plains and moves east-southeast towards the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Winds remain southerly through the period increasing by mid to
late morning with a few gusts through the afternoon. Clouds
generally increase by morning with precipitation chances likely
remaining southeast of the terminals. Only a shallow saturated
layer may develop helping to bring in a SCT or BKN deck of
clouds. Expecting the BKN layer to remain above marginal VFR
levels for now as forecast soundings aren`t consistent on
bringing in clouds below FL030.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Drake