007 FXUS63 KEAX 101129 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO 629 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today, but low humidity will keep conditions relatively comfortable. - Hot and humid on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. - Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday; severe weather not anticipated. - Warm/hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights and winds shows the mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, with our CWA on the western periphery of the trough within northwest mid level flow. At the surface, high pressure has yielded light and variable winds and temperatures in the 50s with some patchy fog across the area. The trough across the Great Lakes continues to slide eastward throughout the day today, with mid level ridging and higher heights building in from the west southwest. This will send temperatures into the mid 80s this afternoon, but with dew points remaining in the mid 50s, conditions should remain relatively comfortable. By Wednesday, mid level heights increase further with the surface high shifting eastward. This will usher in southerly low level return flow, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees (NBM 75th percentile for MaxT at MCI is 91) and dew points increasing into the upper 60s, yielding a hot and humid Wednesday afternoon with heat indices increasing into the low to mid 90s. For Thursday, a progressive shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and into the upper Mississippi Valley, with a weak mid/upper low developing over the Oklahoma/Texas area. These features will yield increased (25 knot) south southwesterly 850 mb flow and some isentropic upglide over the CWA, and with warm and humid conditions providing instability and PWATs on the order of 1.8 inches, showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. By Friday, the mid/upper low across OK/TX migrates to the northeast toward the Ozarks, which will once again bring chances for showers and storms to the area. At this time, guidance is not particularly bullish on heavy rain, but given the high PWATs, cannot entirely rule out some isolated locations getting some decent rain amounts, and WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall nudging northward toward Linn County KS and Bates County MO for Thursday and for areas along and south of a Butler to Moberly line for Friday. With very weak wind shear, severe weather is not anticipated. As we head into the weekend and early next week, guidance suggests a large mid level high setting up shop over the Desert Southwest with associated ridging across much of the western CONUS with our region on the eastern periphery of this ridge. Daily high temperatures should generally remain in the mid 80s (interquartile ranges at MCI for MaxT between roughly 82 and 88 degrees for Saturday and Sunday, increasing to 85 and 92 degrees, respectively, for Monday) with humid conditions continuing. Overnight forecast package has mostly 20% or less PoP for Saturday and Sunday, with rain chances increasing for Monday night into Tuesday morning as a shortwave trough is progged by some models (namely the 00z GFS) to move from the northern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Some early morning fog is impacting KSTJ, but should quickly dissipate within an hour or two after sunrise. Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions are expected with light winds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...WFO LSX