940 FXUS63 KEAX 011733 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smokey/hazy skies through the today into Monday. - Warm and humid today and Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Strong to severe storms continue to look possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain and potential flash flooding is also possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Smoky/hazy skies expected today into Monday as Canadian wildfire smoke moves southward into the area behind a departing shortwave. Models show concentrations near the ground high enough to make a mention in the gridded forecast. So have added some smoke mention to the grids through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, have increased sky coverage, despite little if any actual cloud cover, to mention the obscuration of the sky from the smoke aloft. The region will begin to be more heavily under the influence of an upper ridge spreading eastward into the central US. This will help temperatures climb into the middle to upper 80s today. That ridge moves right over the middle of the country Monday and with increasing southerly flow, temperatures look a few degrees warmer. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees look possible. Focus then shifts to Tuesday and potential for severe weather. Synoptically, a trough will be moving across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest through the day Tuesday. That system will help to push a cold front into the region by Tuesday afternoon. A shortwave will move into the Central Plains and phase with the northern stream trough. Upper-level flow is modestly to strongly diffluent, owing to the area being in the right entrance region of the upper jet. There may also be some minor influence from the left exit region region of a southern stream jet streak. With the diffluent upper flow and the advancing shortwave phasing with the northern stream trough, persistent lift will be ongoing through the day as the front moves southeastward. Models show showers and storms developing early in the day and that makes the potential for severe storms more questionable as CAPE is used essentially as it develops, rather than being built up through the day and released in a shorter period of time. That said, we could still see several thousand J/kg of MUCAPE with favorable deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts to aid in storm organization. Given the environment, severe weather remains possible Tuesday and mainly Tuesday afternoon/ evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards. Perhaps of greater concern will be the potential for flash flooding. Precipitable water values are forecast to be in the 1.75"-2" range. This is in the 99th percentile based on the NAEFS climatology and potentially above the max value for 00Z soundings from June 4th based on SPC sounding climatology. Storm motions are generally parallel to the front and with a southwest low-level jet, MBE vectors are very short, indicating the potential for slow-moving and even training storms. QPF for this event shows widespread 2-3" rain amounts across northwestern MO and northeastern KS. This is an area of DO to D1 drought so there is some ability to absorb moisture. But the parameters will support flash flooding potential. Unsettled weather lingers off and on through the rest of the forecast. The amount of PoPs in the forecast is likely overdone though and would anticipate some consolidation of PoPs into more likely time frames as uncertainty decreases and ensemble guidance becomes less spread out and more consistent. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period. Light and variable winds expected to shift to the south later tonight. Went with a FEW high cloud group to account for the smoke. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Collier