865
FXUS63 KTOP 181141
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
541 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions are expected today, especially later this morning
through the afternoon. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in
effect.

- The strong winds combined with low relative humidity are expected
to lead to dangerous fire weather conditions today, and as such a
Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire area.

- Brief, light rain showers should quickly push east mid-morning
  with dry and warm weather expected the rest of the forecast
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Upper trough continues to deepen as it moves across the Northern
Plains this morning, and the sfc trough extends from MN into
northeast KS. The cold front has made its way through north central
KS and appears to be just ahead of a line from Beatrice, NE to
Concordia to Great Bend as of 09Z. Winds have gusted to 45-55mph
behind the front in our area with 60+ mph gusts so far staying just
a few counties west of our CWA. Light rain can be seen on radar,
which has been observed at CNK and MYZ briefly. Forecast soundings
show deeper moisture profiles towards the KS/NE border compared to
further south, and while there remain some slight variations among
CAMs in how far south the rain may get, consensus shows areas along
and north of I-70 as seeing the best chance of some light rain this
morning. Sufficient moisture through the profile looks brief and the
rain looks to move east rather quickly, exiting the area by 13-14Z.

The main story for today continues to be the wind and associated
fire danger that comes with it. The first wind surge comes with the
passage of the front early this morning, so would expect similar
winds for the rest of the area as have been observed in north
central KS so far. The RAP and HRRR both support this, showing wind
gusts at least to advisory level along the front with the HRRR still
showing a few pockets of 60mph gusts toward central KS but weakening
as the front moves east. There appears to be a bit of a lull
following this into mid-morning, though still breezy with gusts
around 20-25mph. A secondary frontal boundary then looks to move
into the area north to south. The strongest CAA comes with this
after 18Z, but the strongest winds look to start 2-3 hours before
that in north central KS. The HRRR and RAP appear to have backed off
some on the 60+ mph gusts into our CWA, which seems to line up with
the 50-60 kt LLJ being more in central to northwest KS. However,
that jet does move east into our area in the afternoon and the
guidance does still support some sporadic gusts to warning criteria
in our western counties, with widespread 45-55mph gusts otherwise.
Please see the fire wx discussion for information on how this will
impact fire weather concerns. Winds should drop off pretty quickly
with sunset as BL mixing diminishes.

The upper trough moves well east by Friday, leaving us in zonal flow
aloft through the weekend into early next week. This favors above
average temperatures continuing, even with a weak front Saturday
that looks to pass through dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Winds are the main impact to aviation this period with VFR
conditions otherwise. Cold front is moving across the area and
is starting to shift winds to the NW at Topeka sites, so wind
gusts should increase shortly. After the initial fropa, there
should be somewhat of a lull with lesser gusts around 25 kts
until a stronger surge comes with a secondary front. That will
result in more prolonged gusts between 35-45 kts through the
afternoon, eventually diminishing early this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 421 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Along with the strong northwest winds, much drier air also moves in
with the CAA this afternoon. High-res models indicate dew points
dropping into the teens and even single digits, yielding RH in the
25-35% range. In collaboration with neighboring offices, the
decision was made to expand the Red Flag Warning to the rest of the
forecast area. Burning should not take place today with all of these
factors in play. Winds should diminish after sunset while RH
recovers into the 40s and 50s tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for KSZ038.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
FIRE WEATHER...Picha