646 FXUS63 KTOP 042306 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) increase Thursday evening and Thursday night. Additional rainfall should be generally less than one-half of an inch and limit additional flooding concerns. - Periodic chances (20-30%) for rain continue Friday through Monday, but there will be plenty of dry time mixed in.&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Southwesterly mid-level flow resides over the Central Plains this afternoon with surface high pressure in control of the area, creating a much quieter day compared to yesterday. Sunshine has been filtered by streaming cirrus overhead and a light northeast wind has kept temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal in the low to mid 70s. A subtle mid-level wave has produced enough lift to generate sprinkles or showers across central Kansas that may impact north central Kansas through the next couple of hours. Dry conditions are expected overnight with low falling into 50s. Several perturbations eject across the region on Thursday. Two weaker waves could spark some showers through the day before a stronger wave approaches Thursday evening and overnight. The more robust convection and heaviest rainfall should be focused along the nose of the low-level jet which is forecast to reside across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas and steer the eventual convective complex southeast through the overnight hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity north of this main convective complex remains uncertain with CAMs and medium range guidance depicting different solutions. Even so, most of the activity across the CWA should be in the form of light to moderate rain, but PWATs around 1.5" and a couple hundred J/kg of skinny CAPE would support efficient rainfall rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. Generally speaking, rainfall amounts should be light, under half an inch. Any areas that are impacted by storms and heavier rain could see amounts of 0.5- 1.0". Will need to monitor if any higher rainfall rates impact portions of Lyon, Osage, Coffey, or Anderson Counties given saturated soils and elevated rivers, creeks, and streams, but the progressive nature of this activity along with the localized nature of heavier rainfall should limit any additional flooding concerns. Flow becomes zonal with periodic waves ejecting through the flow Friday through Monday. Each passing wave brings a chance for showers and storms, but ensemble and deterministic guidance varies in location and timing of precipitation, keeping chances around 20-30%. Surface ridging is progged to move in by Tuesday with a mid-level ridge moving overhead on Wednesday. This should lead to a dry period before another trough approaches the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures warm into the 80s this weekend and hold near 80 into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 VFR at terminals as mid level clouds persist overnight. A layer of high end MVFR stratus deck remains likely to develop aft 08Z based on latest forecast soundings. This should mitigate any reduced visibilities from fog development. Latest smoke density guidance is also focused east of terminals towards LWC, however cannot be ruled out at KTOP aft 10Z. Lower stratus scatters out aft 13Z, however should build back in around 04-05 kft in the afternoon as sfc winds veer to the east blo 10 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Prieto