631
FXUS63 KICT 031913
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
213 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms this evening with the higher chances over
  west/central Kansas. Slightly better shower/storm coverage for
  Thursday across most of the area. Main threats will be gusty
  winds and brief heavy rain.

- The most widespread shower and storm chances will be for
  Saturday night through Sunday and will affect most of central
  and eastern Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Water vapor imagery along with 88D mosaic shows an upper circulation
over the western OK Panhandle. Meanwhile, a broad area of upper
ridging stretches from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the
Ohio Valley.

We should see an uptick in convection across western KS late this
afternoon as the upper impulse continues lifting northeast. Across
our forecast area, airmass remains uncapped with plenty of
instability. Lack of focus will make it difficult to pin point areas
with better chances and like last evening, feel that most of the
activity will be focused along outflow from decaying showers/storms.
For this evening through the overnight hours, feel that the better
shower/storm chances will be tied to the upper impulse as it lifts
across western and north central KS. We may see an increase in
shower and storm coverage on Thu as we remain in an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture transport with PW values around 175% of
normal. However, still feel the most widespread area of convection
on Thu will be over northeast KS, which will be closer to better
upper support.

While we may see some scattered shower/storm activity across eastern
KS Fri morning, there should be an overall decrease in activity for
Fri afternoon and evening with the higher precip chances across the
Southern Plains as a series of weak upper perturbations slide across
the area. There remains good agreement with medium range models
tracking a southern stream upper impulse out of Mex and into the
Southern Plains by Sat afternoon. This feature is then expected to
move into west/central KS by Sun morning. The ECMWF is slightly
further west with this impulse compared to the GFS, but regardless
of which one verifies, the Sat night-Sun evening time frame looks
pretty wet, and with PW values remaining unseasonably high, some
areas of heavy rain will be possible. Showers and storms are then
expected to decrease in coverage for the start of the work week as
the upper impulse continues to lift off to the northeast.

Still looking for seasonal temps through the majority of this
forecast with a slight warm-up staring at the beginning of next
week

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A challenging forecast for the TAF sites for this afternoon.
Afternoon heating combined with a moist atmosphere and little
overall flow will allow for storm chances pretty much everywhere
although not expecting these storms to be severe. Shower and
storm activity will likely persist off and on throughout the
night as a shortwave continues its slow movement through
western KS but have left out of TAF sites as timing of these
storms is rather difficult and could occur throughout the
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...SGS