733
FXUS63 KICT 162002
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
158 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible late tonight across southeast KS

- Strong winds areawide early Thursday through Thursday afternoon;
  very high to extreme fire danger as well

- The stretch of dry and warm weather is expected to continue over
  the next 7 days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

As of 130 PM Tuesday afternoon, a weak midlevel low was progressing
through western OK. The only noticeable impact is a midlevel cloud
deck across much of southern and southeast KS. Further north, a
stronger shortwave trough was advancing east along the Canadian
border of ND/MN. An attendant weak surface trough axis extends
from western MN trough central KS. This trough axis is behaving
more similarly to a dryline with downslope (NW) winds
contributing to increasing temperatures behind the trough axis.
Temperatures across western KS are in the 60s/70s with 50s
across eastern KS. Transitioning into tonight, this weak trough
axis will continue to advance across the state with winds
becoming light and variable late tonight. Light winds, clearing
skies, and small dew point depressions across southeast KS may
result in patchy fog formation. The latest HREF suggests a 40-50
percent chance for visibilities dipping below 3 miles. As
boundary layer mixing deepens by mid- Wednesday morning, fog
should dissipate.

By Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, our attention turns to a
potent midlevel shortwave trough poised to eject into the northern
Plains. Strong lee troughing will occur from western SD through
the TX Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. As the surface pressure
gradient increases late Wednesday into early Thursday morning,
southerly winds will gust between 25-35 mph. Modest low-level
WAA ahead of the trough will increase low-level moisture,
eastern KS. Latest NAM/GFS/ECMWF forecast soundings reveal a
shallow moist layer below 850mb. A brief period of drizzle
cannot be ruled out across much of the area from roughly
midnight through sunrise Thursday. The aforementioned trough
will move through the area during the pre-dawn hours Thursday
morning, shifting winds from the northwest. Deep boundary layer
mixing is expected by mid to late Thursday morning with mixing
heights approaching 700mb. This translates to boundary layer
mean winds near 40-50 mph, with the strongest across central KS.
As such, northwest wind gusts near 50 mph are expected. Latest
NBM probabilistic data reveals a 50-60 percent chance for winds
greater than 40 mph. The pressure gradient will rapidly decrease
Thursday evening as an area of high pressure slides into the
forecast area. This period of light winds will be brief as the
next surface trough deepens across the high Plains with a
secondary midlevel trough sliding along the Canadian border.
Southwesterly winds up to 30 mph are expected throughout the day
Friday. The aforementioned surface trough will slide through
early Saturday, shifting winds from the north. Similar to the
prior trough passages, little in the way of cold air is
associated with these front. Therefore, temperatures are
expected to remain mild in the lead up to Christmas with highs
in the 50s to near 60 each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. A
weak cold front will move through the terminals through the
afternoon and early evening hours, mainly resulting in winds
becoming light and variable. The combination of light winds and
clearing skies may produce patchy fog (40-50% chance for less
than 3 SM VSBY across southeast KS). The most likely terminal to
be impacted is CNU where MVFR VSBY are maintained from 9-16Z.
Otherwise, southerly winds will quickly return towards midday
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

The threat for very high to extreme fire danger is increasing for
Thursday. A strong cold front will move across the area Thursday
morning shifting winds from the northwest. Boundary layer mixing
heights are forecast to approach 700mb. The strong low-level wind
field is comprised of mean boundary layer winds near 40-50 mph,
with the strongest across central KS. This translates to
northwest winds sustained 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph. In
addition, the post-frontal airmass will be very dry with surface
relative humidity in the 20-30 percent range. Finally, fully
cured fuels will support rapid fire spread. As a result,
widespread extreme fire danger is forecast for areas generally
within and northwest of the Flint Hills. Fire danger concerns
will decrease near/after sunset as wind speeds rapidly decrease
throughout Thursday evening to 10-15 mph. A Fire Weather Watch is
in effect from 10 AM through 6 PM Thursday for areas within and
northwest of the Flint Hills.

Another day of fire weather concerns are possible Friday afternoon
as southerly winds increase to 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Afternoon relative humidity values will fall into the 20-30 percent
range once again. The overlap of the winds and humidity produce very
high fire danger during the afternoon for areas within and northwest
of the Flint Hills.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...BMB