742 FXUS63 KEAX 090348 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1048 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening along a cold front along and south of a Moberly to Paola line. - Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards. - Unsettled weather is probable for Thursday and into the weekend, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Early this afternoon, a cold front is moving through the forecast area as of 1pm is extending from Macon to Olathe. Our ahead of this front a very unstable environment with a reservoir of CAPE values range from 2000-3000J/Kg. Coupled with 40-50kts of effective shear and fairly steep low-level lapse rates between 7.0-7.5 provide an ample environment for severe storms capable of large hail, and damaging winds. These storms will be efficient with PWATs between 1.25-1.50" however, the front should be progressive enough to preclude any more than very localized flooding. This front will continue to progress southeastward through the late afternoon into this evening before finally exiting the CWA late this evening. in addition, some post frontal showers and thunderstorms will be possible however this will not be severe. A surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area tonight allowing condition to dry and clear out. This will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s tonight. Tomorrow, the upper level trough digging through the Upper Midwest which was the catalyst for driving the cold front through the area today will continue to dig into the Great Lake region. This will force a reinforcing cold front through the area holding highs in the 70s. Monday night, another surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area which will remain in control through Tuesday night. This will keep conditions tranquil. Height rises on Tuesday will allow highs to warm to near normal in the low to mid 80s. Temperatures will further warm on Wednesday as shortwave ridging builds over the area in response to a mid-level trough moving into the southern Plains. This coupled with modest WAA will push highs into the mid 80s to near 90. Conditions become active again late in the week as the upper level trough, in the form of a closed low, over the southern Plains slowly moves northeastward toward the local area. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to overspread the area Thursday holding highs in the mid 80s. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Thursday night into Friday as the closed low remains over the area before finally becoming an open wave and shifting east on Friday. Long-wave, low amplitude ridging will reside over the central CONUS by next weekend. However, several upper level shortwaves rounding the ridge will continue to bring unsettled weather to the area through the weekend. The unsettled Friday through Sunday will hold highs in the low to mid 80s through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 With convection well S/SE of the area by this point, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period. KSTJ may see brief bounces into MVFR visibilities due to FU/HZ conditions from smoke from Canadian fires, though bulk expected to remain aloft. Otherwise, light to variable winds tonight, settling out of the SW by morning and gradually shifting through the day to the NW and breezier. Expect sustained winds 10 to 15 kts and gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range during daytime/peak mixing hours. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Curtis