940
FXUS63 KEAX 011733
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smokey/hazy skies through the today into Monday.

- Warm and humid today and Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- Strong to severe storms continue to look possible Tuesday
  afternoon and evening. Heavy rain and potential flash flooding
  is also possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Smoky/hazy skies expected today into Monday as Canadian wildfire
smoke moves southward into the area behind a departing shortwave.
Models show concentrations near the ground high enough to make a
mention in the gridded forecast. So have added some smoke mention to
the grids through Monday afternoon. Otherwise, have increased
sky coverage, despite little if any actual cloud cover, to
mention the obscuration of the sky from the smoke aloft.

The region will begin to be more heavily under the influence of an
upper ridge spreading eastward into the central US. This will help
temperatures climb into the middle to upper 80s today. That ridge
moves right over the middle of the country Monday and with
increasing southerly flow, temperatures look a few degrees warmer.
Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees look possible.

Focus then shifts to Tuesday and potential for severe weather.
Synoptically, a trough will be moving across the Northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest through the day Tuesday. That system will
help to push a cold front into the region by Tuesday afternoon. A
shortwave will move into the Central Plains and phase with the
northern stream trough. Upper-level flow is modestly to strongly
diffluent, owing to the area being in the right entrance region
of the upper jet. There may also be some minor influence from
the left exit region region of a southern stream jet streak.
With the diffluent upper flow and the advancing shortwave
phasing with the northern stream trough, persistent lift will be
ongoing through the day as the front moves southeastward.
Models show showers and storms developing early in the day and
that makes the potential for severe storms more questionable as
CAPE is used essentially as it develops, rather than being built
up through the day and released in a shorter period of time.
That said, we could still see several thousand J/kg of MUCAPE
with favorable deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts to aid in storm
organization. Given the environment, severe weather remains
possible Tuesday and mainly Tuesday afternoon/ evening. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards. Perhaps of
greater concern will be the potential for flash flooding.
Precipitable water values are forecast to be in the 1.75"-2"
range. This is in the 99th percentile based on the NAEFS
climatology and potentially above the max value for 00Z
soundings from June 4th based on SPC sounding climatology. Storm
motions are generally parallel to the front and with a
southwest low-level jet, MBE vectors are very short, indicating
the potential for slow-moving and even training storms. QPF for
this event shows widespread 2-3" rain amounts across
northwestern MO and northeastern KS. This is an area of DO to D1
drought so there is some ability to absorb moisture. But the
parameters will support flash flooding potential.

Unsettled weather lingers off and on through the rest of the
forecast. The amount of PoPs in the forecast is likely overdone
though and would anticipate some consolidation of PoPs into more
likely time frames as uncertainty decreases and ensemble guidance
becomes less spread out and more consistent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

VFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period. Light
and variable winds expected to shift to the south later tonight.
Went with a FEW high cloud group to account for the smoke.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Collier