058 FXUS63 KDDC 032233 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 533 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cool temperatures through the end of the work week. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across portions of southwest Kansas Thursday night and Friday night. Main risk from these storms will be large hail, gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall. - Heavy rainfall Thursday night and Friday night may result in isolated flash flooding, especially south and east of the Dodge City area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 At 7 am this morning a 500mb trough was located over western Kansas with a surface cold front extending from an area of low pressure in southwest Kansas northeast into Iowa. Gusty winds and cold air were observed north of this cold front. Garden City experienced the frontal passage between 8 and 9am with gusty north winds of 25 to 35 mph and temperatures falling from the 60s into the low to mid 50s. These colder temperatures will spread across the remainder of southwest and south central Kansas as the cold front moves into northwest Oklahoma and central Kansas and the upper level trough moves into eastern Kansas. Once the front exits southwest Kansas, the risk for severe weather will end. Tonight a cool dome of high pressure will begin building into western Kansas. There will be a small chance (less than 15%) for isolated storms near extreme southwest Kansas (Elkhart area) moving in from Colorado overnight but further east the winds will decreases to 10 mph or less and unseasonably cool temperatures are expected during the overnight hours. On Wednesday the surface high pressure will continue building across western Kansas allowing a moist southeasterly upslope flow to develop by late afternoon across southeast Colorado and parts of southwest Kansas. This moist flow, combined with increasing lift ahead of the next upper level trough will result in scattered thunderstorms late in the day over southeast Colorado. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and move east/southeast overnight, reaching southwest Kansas late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This pattern (storms developing over eastern Colorado in the afternoon and moving into southwest Kansas overnight) is expected to repeat late Thursday and again Friday as several upper level waves cross the Rockies and enter the Central Plains given continued moist upslope flow situated north of a warm front, increasing afternoon instability and a mid level baroclinic zone. The main uncertainty for the last half of the work week is the exact storm track each night, as prior convection may influence subsequent storm track. At this time, confidence is moderate to high (50-70%) for thunderstorms impacting southwest Kansas Thursday night. This is due to the agreement on the location of a warm front, a 700mb temperature gradient of 8-10C and a lower level moisture axis from the ensemble and deterministic models. Large hail will be possible early in the evening, with heavy rain and gusty winds becoming the primary threats overnight as clusters of thunderstorms move across southwest Kansas. PWAT values in excess of 90% of climatology are currently forecast across southwest Kansas late week which easily supports the current 24 hour rainfall forecast ending at 7am Friday between 1 and 2 inches. There is even a 30-40% chance that rainfall totals Thursday night across south central Kansas to exceed 2. Also the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models have rainfall totals higher than this. As a result of this heavy rainfall potential Thursday night there may be some some water issues or even isolated flash flooding, especially south and east of the Dodge City area where WPC has placed a slight risk for excessive rainfall. After the widespread rainfall Thursday night potential ends early Friday the surface boundary is forecast to shift southward as another upper level wave exits the Central Rockies and moves out into the Plains by late day. A moist and unstable air mass will still be in place north of our surface boundary so conditions will still be favorable for another round of widespread rainfall Friday night. This addition rainfall may further add to the potential water issues near the Oklahoma border. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 531 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 MVFR cigs through mid/late evening will improve to more widespread VFR conditions overnight into early Wednesday as a prevailing low level stratus deck continues to lift/scatter out early in the period. Gusty north winds will continue to slowly subside through late evening, becoming more light and variable generally after 06-08Z as surface high pressure spreads southeast through the Western High Plains into western Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...JJohnson