589 FXUS63 KTOP 011656 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1156 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry today and tomorrow. - Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a cold front. A few strong to severe storms possible. - Cooler for the rest of the week with occasional shower/storm chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 The large-scale pattern across the CONUS this morning is dominated by two main features - a large upper trough centered over the East Coast, and a broad upper ridge with the axis located over the Rockies. Within the northerly flow between these features, we`ve seen a compact shortwave trough move south across our area over the past 12 hours. As this system is now south of us, subsidence in its wake is bringing clearing skies and drier conditions, but little in terms of a temperature change. The northerly flow is acting to transport some Canadian wildfire smoke southward, so skies will appear a bit milky and hazy today as the densest of the smoke moves overhead. It looks like most of the smoke will stay aloft, so not expecting this to have much of an impact other than maybe keeping temperatures a couple degrees below yesterday`s values. Tomorrow, southerly surface flow increases as an upper trough digs into the western CONUS. This will act to lift a cut-off low over Baja California northeast towards the Plains. The daytime will remain warm and dry, with highs again in the upper 80s. By the Monday night period though, rain chances will begin to increase as isentropic ascent increases ahead of the trough. Initially, this looks to be in the form of thunderstorms moving in from western Kansas towards midnight. These storms will be moving into a less favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment with time and eastern extent, so should be on a gradual weakening trend. Still, moderate instability and a strong LLJ should be enough to maintain a marginal risk for gusty winds and large hail, despite rather weak effective shear. Showers and storms continue into Tuesday morning and afternoon, along and ahead of a steadily advancing cold front. With the bulk shear vector largely parallel to the front, we`ll likely see a messy storm mode. Some strong winds and large hail will remain possible, particularly across east-central KS if we can get some afternoon clearing ahead of the front, but the messy storm mode should largely temper the severe threat. The steady eastward motion of the front will limit the overall flood threat, though some localized flooding could still occur with any short-term training of heavier rain. Behind the front, we`ll see another period of cool temperatures through the second half of the week. Broad zonal to slightly southwesterly flow will remain in place over the Plains, allowing multiple weak perturbations to move across the area. This will keep the old front in place to our south, with generally easterly flow at the surface. Highs stay mostly in the 70s as a result. Each weak perturbation will bring another chance for scattered showers and storms, though similar to last weekend the heaviest amounts look like they`ll stay to our south. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR at terminals with light northeast winds veering towards the south overnight. South winds increase over 10 kts sustained aft 15Z with gusts over 20 kts anticipated in the afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Prieto