601 FXUS63 KICT 021127 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers/storms by late this evening, persisting through Tuesday evening. A handful of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, along with areas of heavy rainfall and increased flooding concerns. - Additional off-and-on shower/storm chances late Wednesday night through the weekend, although uncertainty remains high. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING: Chances for scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will increase from west to east this evening and tonight, as a cutoff low currently over the Desert Southwest progresses northeast over the region, in concert with a strong cold front moving through from the northwest. Given the combination of modest to strong instability, weak to modest deep layer shear, and hefty downdraft CAPE, thinking a handful of strong to severe storms are possible, capable of mostly 50-70 mph winds, although cannot rule out isolated instances of large hail mainly Tuesday afternoon-evening (likely no larger than golfball size given marginal deep layer shear). The greatest severe potential will be this evening-tonight generally along/west of the Flint Hills, and then again Tuesday afternoon-evening from roughly the KS Turnpike on east-southeast. Additionally, the strong forcing in conjunction with anomalously high precipitable waters and mid/upper flow nearly parallel to the frontal zone will also support areas of heavy rainfall and increased flooding concerns, especially Tuesday afternoon-evening from roughly the KS Turnpike on east-southeast. Since soils are still fairly saturated from recent heavy rainfall, rises in rivers/streams are likely, with the greatest potential for river/stream levels reaching or exceeding minor to moderate flood stage over southeast Kansas. The possibility of a flood watch was discussed with surrounding offices, but the consensus was to hold off for now. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a low-predictability pattern setting up by mid to late week through the weekend, with off- and-on chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region. The culprits will be various low-amplitude shortwaves progressing over the region interacting with a wobbly frontal zone, amidst anomalously high precipitable waters. A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer shear will support off-and-on severe weather chances, with anomalous PWs supporting locally heavy rainfall and potential flooding concerns. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. TEMPERATURES: A rather significant cool down is expected Tuesday and Wednesday in wake of the strong cold front, with Tuesday temperatures likely falling into the 50s and 60s behind the front, and 70s on Wednesday. A slow warm up back closer to average is expected through late week and into next weekend, with off-and-on chances for showers/storms likely preventing widespread above average temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Breezy/gusty south winds will prevail by mid-late morning and persist well into tonight, as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should move in from the west later this evening and tonight, as activity rolls east off the High Plains ahead of a shortwave approaching from the west. Strong wind gusts, pea-dime size hail, and locally heavy rain may accompany the strongest activity. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK