396 FXUS63 KDDC 021929 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong damaging winds will be possible tonight (45 to near 60%), especially west of highway 183. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph can be expected. - Much cooler temperatures can be expected on Tuesday. There is currently a greater than 70% chance that high temperatures will remain below 70 degrees west and north of Dodge City. - Unseasonably cool with thunderstorms possible almost each day for the last half of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 An area of low pressure at the surface was centered over southeast Colorado earlier today, with a surface boundary extending south into the Texas Panhandle. A 500mb trough was situated over Arizona, and as of 10am Monday scattered thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of this upper level trough over New Mexico. Short term weather models are in good agreement that this upper level trough moving into southwest Kansas early tonight as enhanced lift (indicated by ongoing convection) ahead of this upper wave spreads into southwest Kansas after 4pm. Model soundings indicate an inverted V profile and steep 0-3km lapse rates exceeding 9C/km across extreme southwest Kansas ahead of this system with little to no CIN. This plus the enhanced upper level lift developing supports the SPCs latest assessment and the decision to increase the wind gust potential from these storms. Based on the deeply mixed environment and very unstable environment...damaging winds exceeding 70 mph will be possible (45 to near 60%) early tonight. A few storms may also produce some isolated hail before sunset. Currently based on the latest CAMS the greatest risk for these strong damaging winds will be south of I-70 and west of Highway 183 between 6pm and 11 pm. Brief periods of heavy rainfall are also expected given the high PWATS, potentially reducing visibility and producing ponding of water in poor drainage areas. After these storms move out of the area after midnight...a brief lull in precipitation is anticipated before a strong cold front pushes across western Kansas early Tuesday morning. Another round of thunderstorms will accompanying this front on Tuesday with some of these storm being capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts over 40 mph. Severe weather is not expected during this period. Behind the cold front, gusty north winds will usher in significantly cooler air. With continued cloud cover and lingering rain, daytime temperatures on Tuesday will not warm much. Expect a drop from highs near 90 today (Monday) to highs in the 60s and 70s on Tuesday. There is currently a greater than 70% chance that high temperatures will remain below 70 degrees west and north of Dodge City. For the remainder of the workweek, unseasonably cool temperatures will persist with several additional chances for thunderstorms. Ensemble models are in agreement that multiple upper level disturbances will cross western Kansas late week and early this weekend. One more significant upper level trough is expected to cross the Central Plains on Thursday or Friday. While ensemble clusters vary slightly on timing, they all agree that MUCAPE values over 500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear will increase to 70% or higher and a 50-70% chance of surface dewpoints exceeding 60 ahead of this upper level system. This setup presents the potential for our next chance for severe thunderstorms across southwest Kansas late in the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Strong Damaging Winds Possible Early This Evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany an upper level trough as it crosses western Kansas early tonight. A few of the stronger storms early tonight will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 70 mph along with hail and locally heavy rainfall. Short term models are in decent agreement with the timing of these storms and move these storms across the Liberal and Garden City area between 00z and 03z Tuesday and then across the Dodge City and Hays areas between 02z and 05Z Tuesday. Between 09z and 15z Tuesday a strong cold front will then cross southwest Kansas. As this cold front passes a gusty north wind at 20 to 25 knots will develop and ceilings will fall to or below 1500ft AGL. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert