100 FXUS63 KICT 100755 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 255 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures expected today. - Periodic low storm chances starting Thursday and lasting into the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis show broad troughing across the eastern half of the CONUS with a weak but broad upper ridge across much of the western CONUS. The central plains will feel more influence from the upper ridge as temperatures rise into the upper 80s and low 90s across the forecast area. Additionally, southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase this evening into tonight as surface pressure fall commence across the northern High Plains in response to a disturbance set to traverse across the northern plains on Wednesday. This will help to reinforce warmer temperatures even as we lose the influence of the upper ridge by early Wednesday. THe upper ridge that will support warmer temperatures today will weaken, and a weak cutoff low will gradually move northeastward out of southwest Texas late Wednesday and early Thursday. There isn`t a real focus for widespread showers and storms from this system across Kansas. However, vorticity advection aloft may provide just enough lift to support maybe some spotty isolated showers and storms on Thursday, mainly for areas along and east of the Flint Hills. With a stark lack shear and instability, strong to severe storms are not expected on Thursday. This system lumbers across southern plains going into Friday, and much of the same is expected: very spotty showers and storms across southeast Kansas that are not likely to be strong or severe in nature. In addition to these spotty storm chances, a brief cool down is possible across southeast Kansas as a result of the increased cloud cover. Going into the weekend, the pattern looks to be quite nebulous as the forecast area is pinched in between a couple of strong upper ridges located over northwest Mexico and the southeast CONUS. This leaves the central plains under a region of weak northwest flow. Even with relatively weak flow aloft, any perturbations in this flow could be enough to trigger additional chances for showers and storms across the central portions of the country. Still too far out for fine details, so be sure to stay tuned to the forecast over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable winds will prevail through much of the period. Southwesterly winds may increase to 10-15 kt across south- central KS during the afternoon hours. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...BRF