456 FXUS63 KEAX 012242 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 542 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoky/hazy skies through Monday. - Warm and humid conditions continue through Monday. Temperatures peak on Monday with highs expected to range in the upper 80s. - Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Hazy skies expected to continue into Monday with smoke from wildfires in Canada. Northerly flow on the east side of a ridge moving into the central U.S. will allow smoke to persist through the day today and into Monday morning. As the ridge axis moves into our area Monday and winds begin to shift to the west, this will allow the greater concentrations of smoke to be pushed farther east. There may be some impacts to groups sensitive to slightly lessened air quality mainly for northern MO. Warm and humid conditions will continue today and tomorrow as the aforementioned ridge continues to approach the area. Skies remain mostly clear, with the exception of smoke, today and tomorrow due to broad-scale subsidence associated with the ridge. This will allow high temperatures to climb into the mid 80s for today. Tomorrow high temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today as a surface high pushes farther east and our winds shift to the south. Highs for tomorrow are anticipated to range in the upper 80s across the area. Probabilistic ensembles suggest areas near St. Joseph, Maryville, and Moberly have the best chances (60%-70%) to see a 90 degree day. Late Monday into Tuesday, a trough and its associated cold front move through north-central U.S. and will merge with a shortwave from the southwest U.S. as it moves over the area. Tuesday morning a few strong to severe storms are possible with a 35-45 kt LLJ nosing into the warm sector. The low level jet will increase instability and shear over the area making it a more favorable environment for strong storms. A decent cap could keep storms elevated as they move into our area. Hail will likely be the main threat with strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat. The second round is anticipated Tuesday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. This will provide the lift needed for showers and storms. Given the 35-45 kts of bulk shear which will aid in storm organization and MUCAPE values of 2,000-2,500 J/kg which suggest strong updraft potential the main threats look to be quarter-sized hail. DCAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg point to the potential for damaging winds. Taking a look at the hydro aspect, the deterministic model consensus is that PWATs range from 1.5-2 inches which is above the 90th percentile for climatology. This suggests the potential for efficient rain-producing storms. StormTotalQPF suggests roughly 2-3 inches of rain for this event. If storms begin to train or backbuild, there could be some flooding concerns. This agrees with WPC placing majority of our area in a slight risk for a Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Temperatures behind the cold front will decrease bringing us below normal for this time of year. Wednesday and Thursday highs range in the 70s. Extended guidance suggests an unsettled pattern for the second half of next week with a few shortwaves moving through the area providing multiple rain chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 542 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd...skies will be mainly clr thru 17Z-18Z aft which sct high clouds are expected. Winds will be lgt and vrb to begin the pd before becmg southerly around 5kts aft 04Z. Winds will then pick up out of the south btn 17Z-18Z to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...73