889
FXUS63 KICT 170927
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
327 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will continue this morning across southeast KS

- Strong winds areawide early Thursday through Thursday
  afternoon with High Wind Watch and Wind Advisory in effect;
  very high to extreme fire danger as well

- Overall dry conditions and above normal temperatures will
  continue through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Currently, weak troughing extends across the Central and Southern
Plains with an associated weak surface low situated over the
Southern High Plains. These features will move east this morning and
weak ridging will build in ahead of the next trough for this
afternoon. This next system that will impact our area is currently
moving on shore from the Pacific early this morning. Light and
variable winds overnight and early this morning will turn southerly
and increase slightly this afternoon with a few gusts reaching to
around 30 mph. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to run
slightly above normal today with highs ranging in the middle to
upper 50s under gradually increasing clouds.

A potent low pressure system will move from the Northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains through the day today and will drag a
frontal boundary across the area later tonight and into Thursday.
The newest model guidance does keep meaningful precipitation to our
north and east with this system, but trends are bringing the
potential for some light showers or sprinkles to central and eastern
Kansas later tonight/early Thursday morning with POPs in the 15-20%
range. It is unlikely that this amount to much, maybe just a few
hundredths for those lucky enough to see some moisture.
Slightly cooler, near normal temperatures are expected on
Thursday behind the frontal boundary with highs reaching into
the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. The main impact from this
potent system will result from a tightening pressure gradient
behind the boundary on Thursday. This will lead to gusty
northwesterly winds with sustained winds between 30-35 mph and
gusts approaching 50 mph. The strongest winds will impact
central Kansas where a High Wind Watch is in effect. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for the rest of the forecast area for
late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. These winds
combined with low humidity and the overall dry pattern we`ve
seen the past month will lead to elevated fire weather concerns
on Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday, upper level flow will become zonal allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s each afternoon
under partly cloudy skies. Ahead of the next system, winds will turn
southerly across the area and we`ll see gusty winds again on Friday
afternoon as the surface gradient tightens. The next quick hitting,
weak system will pass through the Canadian Prairies and the Northern
Plains on Saturday dragging an associated cold front through our
area on Saturday night. This front will act to moderate our warming
trend, bringing temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.
Highs on Sunday will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Then
temperatures will once again begin rebounding to above normal as
strong ridging builds in for next week. Highs on Monday look to
reach into the 50s with highs Tuesday potentially sneaking into the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Little to no change from 00z routine TAF issuance.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POTENTIAL:

Patchy fog is possible later tonight into Wednesday morning
over mainly southeast Kansas, primarily impacting the CNU TAF
site, but possibly as far west-northwest as ICT. Confidence is
low in widespread IFR or LIFR conditions, so only kept with MVFR
TEMPO groups at ICT and CNU. By Wednesday early evening,
probabilities for MVFR ceilings increase from the south over
southeast Kansas, impacting mainly the CNU TAF site, but
possibly as far west as ICT.

WIND:

Breezy/gusty south winds will encompass the region by Wednesday
afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kts at RSL and GBD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

The threat for very high to extreme fire danger is increasing for
Thursday. A strong cold front will move across the area Thursday
morning shifting winds from the northwest. Boundary layer mixing
heights are forecast to approach 700mb. The strong low-level wind
field is comprised of mean boundary layer winds near 40-50 mph,
with the strongest across central KS. This translates to
northwest winds sustained 30-40 mph with gusts near 55 mph. In
addition, the post-frontal airmass will be very dry with surface
relative humidity in the 20-30 percent range. Finally, fully
cured fuels will support rapid fire spread. As a result,
widespread extreme fire danger is forecast for areas generally
within and northwest of the Flint Hills. Fire danger concerns
will decrease near/after sunset as wind speeds rapidly decrease
throughout Thursday evening to 10-15 mph. A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect from 10 AM through 6 PM Thursday for areas within
and northwest of the Flint Hills.

Another day of fire weather concerns are possible Friday afternoon
as southerly winds increase to 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Afternoon relative humidity values will fall into the 20-30 percent
range once again. The overlap of the winds and humidity produce very
high fire danger during the afternoon for areas within and northwest
of the Flint Hills.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
afternoon for KSZ032-033-047-048-050.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
afternoon for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ049-
051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...BRF