669 FXUS63 KICT 042333 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain showers possible tonight into Thursday morning - Strong to severe storms possible Thursday night into Friday morning - Additional rain chances mainly at night through Sunday night - Quiet and dry conditions expected early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Currently, there is a longwave trough extending from the Northern Plains to the western CONUS with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, resulting in westerly/southwesterly flow aloft in our forecast area. Tonight, a weak shortwave approaches from the southwest which can provide some lift for scattered light showers into Thursday morning. With very weak lift and no instability, thunderstorms are not anticipated. Any shower that develops in our area is not expected to be impactful with most ensembles showing less than 0.05 of rainfall. The best chances are expected across central and south-central Kansas. On Thursday, southerly flow returns at the surface helping dewpoints rise back into the 60s. Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s. By Thursday night into Friday morning, another weak shortwave comes overhead combined with an increasing 700mb WAA, providing another opportunity for showers and storms. With southerly flow at the surface and dewpoints increasing, instability also increases with values of MUCAPE generally between 500-1000 J/kg, though the RAP and NAM have values closer to 1500 J/kg. QPF is generally between 0.5 to 1 of rainfall with PWATs up to 1.75, which is well above average with the highest values in south central to southeast Kansas. Models suggest the best chances of precipitation are likely in southern Kansas to Oklahoma where instability and deep layer shear are more favorable, making strong to severe storms possible. The main impacts would likely be large hail and damaging winds, though there is still model discrepancy, so stay tuned with forecast updates. On Friday, high temperatures will be slightly warmer than Thursday as cloud cover dissipates with most areas seeing highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. On Friday night to Saturday, an additional weak shortwave moves over the area, increasing precipitation chances once again. These rainfall chances will likely stay west and south of our area with possibly southern Kansas clipping the edge of it. Continuing into the weekend, flow aloft will start to shift more westerly to northwesterly Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday. Temperatures will continue to rise, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s on Sunday, though it wont last as a cold front is expected to move through Sunday night. With this cold front, an additional chance for rainfall is possible Sunday night into Monday morning, though uncertainty is high at this time. Stay tuned for forecast updates. By Monday night, ridging builds into the Great Plains with its associated surface high, keeping conditions quiet and dry through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Low clouds will be above MVFR category across southeast Kansas this evening but then should lower into MVFR category later tonight. The low clouds will spread during the morning hours on Saturday with most sites seeing some MVFR cigs. Light northeast winds tonight will switch to the east then southeast during the day on Thursday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...CDJ