172 FXUS63 KICT 011717 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers/storms Monday evening through Tuesday evening. A few severe thunderstorms possible, along with areas of heavy rainfall and localized flooding. - Additional off-and-on shower/storm chances late Wednesday night through next weekend, although uncertainty remains high. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 EARLY THIS MORNING: Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms currently over far southern Kansas will continue exiting to the south during the pre- dawn hours ahead of a compact shortwave. Severe storms are not expected. MONDAY EVENING--TUESDAY EVENING: Attention then turns to chances for scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms, as a cutoff low currently off the northern Baja coast progresses northeast over the region, in concert with a strong cold front moving through from the northwest. Given the combination of modest to strong instability and weak to modest deep layer shear, the potential for widespread severe weather appears low, although isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are possible. The strong forcing in conjunction with anomalously high precipitable waters and mid/upper flow nearly parallel to the frontal zone will also support pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding. However, extreme rainfall amounts appear unlikely given the relatively fast-moving nature of the cold front. Since soils are still fairly saturated from recent heavy rainfall, rises in rivers/streams are likely, with the greatest potential for levels reaching or exceeding flood stage over southeast Kansas. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND: Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a low-predictability pattern setting up mid/late week through next weekend, with off-and- on chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region. The culprits will be various low-amplitude shortwaves progressing over the region, amidst anomalously high precipitable waters and a wobbly weak frontal zone. Widespread severe weather chances appear low during this period, although locally heavy rainfall and potential flooding concerns could pose a threat. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. TEMPERATURES: A rather significant cool down is expected Tuesday and Wednesday in wake of the strong cold front, with forecast high temperatures in the 60s-70s. A slow warm up back closer to average is expected through late week and into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conditions with light and variable winds for all TAF sites this afternoon. The winds will gradually switch to the south and become stronger by tomorrow morning as the surface high moves off to the east and low pressure develops east of the Rockies. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...SGS