339 FXUS63 KICT 112342 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 642 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms over southeast KS/Flint Hills starting late tonight and continuing through Thursday evening. - Slight chance for storms to come off the High Plains and potentially affect parts of our area late Saturday night. - Above normal temperatures to start this weekend and continue through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Currently have an upper low lifting across north central TX with water vapor imagery showing another upper impulse approaching the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends generally along the Nebraska/SD border with weak lee troughing in place across eastern CO/western KS. Upper low over northern TX is expected to continue lifting north and will increase shower and storm chances late tonight with coverage forecast to increase for Thursday. Even through there will not be a ton of instability on Thursday, cooler mid level temps and a high PW airmass should result in sct showers/storms with some higher rainfall rates possible, with strong or severe storms not anticipated. By 00z Fri, upper low will be located over extreme northeast OK and will be moving into the Ozark region during the day Fri, with some sct activity lingering over extreme southeast KS. Upper low will continue into the Mid Mississippi Valley Fri night with upper ridging starting to build over the Southern Rockies. The GFS remains much more agressive than other models in developing storms over western KS Fri night into early Sat morning as a weak upper impulse move into the area. Currently have very low confidence in this panning out as the upper energy with the GFS looks to be the result of earlier convection and not a synoptic feature. For Sat into Sun, upper ridging is expected to continue to build from the Southern Rockies into Western Mexico. While daytime shower and storm chances will be low for the Sun-Tue time frame, there will be slight overnight storm chances as daytime activity attempts to come off the High Plain of western Nebraska/NW KS. However, confidence remains low on these chances panning out as they will be dependent on where daytime convection forms each day. Confidence is much higher that we will see a warming trend through at least he middle of next week, with widespread low 90s likely by Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High clouds will be on the increase as a storm system moves into northeast OK tonight. The best chances for showers will remain over southeast KS impacting KCNU through much of the period after 07-09Z. As low level moisture increases late tonight, flight categories are expected to fall with IFR/LIFR possible over much of south central KS and TAFs were trended in that direction. Clouds may be slow to mix out as we move into the day on Thursday with some showers and storms lingering over southeast KS. Breezy southeast winds are expected to prevail on Thursday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...MWM