203
FXUS63 KDVN 082323
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
623 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with some day by day warming to occur into the
  weekend  adding to drought but making for nice conditions for
  the human.

- Still large diurnal swings in order with ongoing dry sfc/boundary
  layer.

- Pattern change will allow for much cooler weather to spill
  down across the area Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Tonight...Rather large multi-center ridge complex acrs the mid to
upper MS RVR Valley will settle it`s prime axis acrs the OH RVR
Valley and central GRT LKS through Wed. Light and variable sfc wind
regime tonight under shallow sharp H95 MB inversion, along with
ongoing low sfc DPTs/dry boundary layer will foster sub 50th
percentile low temps tonight in the low to mid 40s, with a few upper
30s possible again. Brunt of thicker smoke layer aloft seen on
satellite acrs the plains, will stay mainly out acrs that area or
seep east acrs the MO RVR Valley into central IA through tomorrow,
but stay mainly off to the west of the local area. But we will still
have some secondary lighter layers streaming acrs the CWA for some
milkiness thru Wed.

Wednesday...Some light return flow in the LLVLs appears to be on tap
on the western flank of the sfc high, and the extent of moderate
mixing and thickness expansion support highs in the mid 70s
northeast, to around 80 in the west. Again insolation a bit filtered
by some smoke aloft but to the extent of what will be occurring off
to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Thursday and Friday...Upper ridge will look to get pumped up a bit
acrs the region for ongoing drying/warming conditions into the end
of the week. This while wave track westerlies north of the ridge
acrs southern Canada start to usher digging short wave energy toward
the northwestern GRT LKS. Associated sfc cool frontal boundary is
projected by ensemble handling to squeeze down acrs the local area
by Friday night, most likely in a dry FROPA fashion or with spotty
post-frontal precip just off to the northeast of the CWA. The GFS
members are stronger/progressive and have a further southward push
before it gets hung up some by LLVL cyclogensis slowing up the
boundary, while the ECMWF is not as baroclinically robust and lays
out the front right acrs the DVN CWA Friday night. But again looking
dry for the most part in our area, these would be just temp and post-
frontal wind descrepancies with the GFS being breezier/cooler
earlier on Friday night. Back to Friday, it is looking like a breezy
warm sector day with high temps well up in the 80s and potentially
near record values. Will also have to assess the fire danger as we
get closer in on that day.

Saturday through Monday...Saturday a challenging temperature day
with frontal placement differences and low confidence cloud cover.
Some of the medium range blends have spotty precip Sat as well in or
near the DVN CWA, but ongoing dry conditions make it too low of
confidence to add even low mentionable POPs. The main weather
feature of the weekend will be another stronger digging upper trof
acrs the upper MS RVR Valley and GRT LKS, with associated strong
cold frontal passage occurring Sat night. High pattern amplification
to continue into early next week with a cold core upper low rolling
eastward through the GRT LKS through Monday. Steep cyclonic cold air
advection and pressure gradients advertised by the latest synoptic
scale feature placement, suggest windy and sharply colder conditions
by Monday. Sunday could be a windy day with highs in the low to mid
60s, or even held down in the 50s with cloud cover, with highs in
the 50s looking more likely for Monday. Overnight lows in the 30s
look on track as well from Sunday night on into early next week.
Second night after cold front passage for the coldest night with
clearing skies and decreasing sfc winds right now appears to be
Monday night, when some low to mid 30s may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

High pressure will lead to VFR conditions and light winds
through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Record High Temperatures:
Friday October 11th:

KCID: 88/1962
KDBQ: 85/1928
KMLI: 88/1962
KBRL: 88/1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Uttech
CLIMATE...12