012
FXUS63 KDVN 091121
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
621 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and storms today
  north of Interstate 80. Temperatures will be cooler with highs
  in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- Warmer temperatures are on the way for Tuesday through Thursday,
  with Wednesday being a particularly warm day

- Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms will be with us
  for Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, with a chance for
  an isolated strong to severe storm late Wednesday for areas
  along and north of Interstate 80

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Southwesterly flow at the surface this morning will switch to
out of the northwest as a weak cold front moves across the
region. In the wake of this boundary, we will see a lobe of PVA
descend from the north as an upper level low churns over the
the western Great Lakes. PWATs remain less than an inch across
the region, but the cyclonic flow aloft will help to generate
some diurnal cumulus by the afternoon hours. This could lead
to a few showers (20-40% chances) developing primarily north of
the Quad Cities. Weak instability and meager mid-level lapse
rates will keep strong storms at bay but can`t rule out a few
isolated storms. Additionally, the northwest winds will keep
temperatures on the cool side today, roughly 10F below normal
with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The long term begins on a dry note Tuesday, thanks to a large area
of high pressure progged to set up across the southern MS River
Valley region. The upper-level trough that will be north of our
region today will gradually shift eastward. We are expecting skies
to look a bit murky once again from smoke aloft over our region,
given higher smoke concentrations moving in per the latest HRRR and
RRFS smoke models. High temperatures should warm to the lower 80s
Tuesday, with even warmer conditions likely for Wednesday thanks to
southern return flow/warm air advection as the aforementioned high
pressure system translates eastward. Both the EC and GEFS ensembles
suggest 850 mb temperatures between 17 to 19 degree C, which is
around the 90th percentile per the SPC sounding climatology for June
11th. NBM seems to have trended a little warmer still Wednesday,
with highs warming to the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west.

As we head into late Wednesday through the end of the week, the
pattern is expected to become more active as flow aloft becomes more
zonal, with a few mid-level shortwaves passing through the region.
One particular wave that`s progged to move through Wednesday evening
into early Thursday could generate some strong to severe storms with
it as it traverses a warm frontal zone at the surface across our
northern CWA. An unstable air mass should be in place, characterized
by GEFS ensemble exceedance probabilities of 2000 J/kg of CAPE
around 60 to 90%. Both the GEFS and NSSL ML severe probs are
highlighting this time frame for severe storms, and SPC has
introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms for
locations along and north of Interstate 80 for late Wednesday.
Timing remains a bit uncertain, but convection looks most likely in
the late afternoon/evening hours.

Generally seasonal temperatures are expected for Thursday through
the upcoming weekend, with 20 to 50% chances of showers and storms
Thursday through Friday night. Greater uncertainty in timing of
activity exists for this time frame, but we expect dry periods mixed
in, so not a complete washout.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A cold front approaching from the northwest this morning lead to
winds veering to out of the northwest through the day. Current radar
shows some rain in northern MN and this boundary could bring some
light rain this morning. However, the better chances will be in the
afternoon as some diurnal cumulus develop. Current observations also
show some visibility reductions across DBQ and CID which may be
related to smoke. Based on the RRFS these reductions should move out
as the cold front passes. Additionally, expect wind gusts in excess
of 20 kts after the cold front passes. Winds will taper off after
sunset.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Britt
LONG TERM...Cousins/Schultz
AVIATION...Britt