824
FXUS63 KDVN 111947
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
247 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal (level 1/5) and Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe
  storms today, largely along and north of Highway 20. Main
  threats with storms will be severe hail and wind, but the
  threat is low locally.

- Active pattern will continue into the weekend, with daily
  chances for showers/storms. Overall the severe threat is low
  through the weekend. Rather, we can expect pop-up
  showers/storms each afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
  period, with most in the mid-upper 80s through at least the
  start of next week.

- Potential for an even more active pattern to set up next week,
  resulting in chances for very hot conditions and/or an active
  storm track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Stalled boundary will remain draped along/north of the Highway 20
corridor through the afternoon and evening, with bouts of energy
passing along it from a weak wave. These will provide the forcing
necessary to develop scattered showers/storms through the evening,
with some becoming strong to severe. The SPC has outlooked these
areas in a Marginal Risk, level 1/5, for severe weather. This
afternoon, they also introduced a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the
areas with the best chance. Although, our confidence is low on the
overall severe threat, especially with some short term guidance
keeping the convection north of our area. Thus, confidence in anyone
south of Highway 20 seeing storms, let alone any severe, is low
at this point. Locations along Highway 20 also have the chance
to end up dry, but the storms will be close enough to the area
that mention of the potential was needed. Best chances will be
along and north of Highway 20, which is highlighted well amongst
guidance. This will be something to watch through the afternoon
and evening though, as if the front pushes farther south, that
would bring the convection farther into our area. Thus, a little
extra room in the outlook area has been provided. This activity
will continue into the mid-evening, diminishing around
10pm-12am local time. From there, we will be left with passing
clouds, light winds, and mild temperatures tonight.

Tomorrow, boundary remains draped over the forecast area once again,
starting near the Interstate 80 corridor and pulling north by the
afternoon hours. LLVL southerly flow will help push this boundary
north, with scattered showers and storms developing as it does.
While we are not expecting a washout, the coverage of PoPs is
greater tomorrow, with more areas possibly seeing at least a
shower/storm through the afternoon. We are not expecting severe
weather at this time. Rather, garden variety thunderstorms are
expected. Best chances will be in the afternoon hours along and
north of Interstate 80, as daytime heating helps build better
instability, with increasing moisture as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Active pattern will continue through much of the forecast period, as
we will continue to see diurnal convection through Friday and into
Saturday. Stalled out boundary in weak upper level flow regime
will remain the main forcing, with some weak bouts of energy
providing the upper level support. We largely have continuous
PoPs through this timeframe (15-25%), but the better chances
will be each afternoon and evening (30-50%), as we get daytime
heating to build instability. Through the end of the week, we
will also see better moisture work in, allowing for more
coverage of storms. At this time, we are not expecting severe
weather. Saturday, we will largely remain dry, with the best
chances for storms along and east of the Mississippi River, as
the pattern changes and a cold front pushes through the area.
Temperatures will remain above normal, with most in the mid-
upper 80s and a mix of clouds/sun.

Sunday and beyond, the already active pattern becomes potentially
more active. Ridging develops over the Central Plains, which would
place parts of the Midwest under northwest flow, at the edge of the
heat dome. There remains some placement and timing differences
amongst guidance, but they have near-daily waves riding along the
edge of the heat dome and crashing through the Midwest. What does
this mean? Well, this would indicate that somewhere in the Midwest
is likely to fall under a near-daily track for MCSs, with the
others dry and very hot. This is normal during this time of the
year and we have seen this pattern many times. Although, this
pattern does lead to high uncertainty. There are two scenarios
that usually come out of this pattern: very hot conditions, with
near extreme heat under the heat dome and dry, or you fall
under the MCS track through the week, resulting in temperatures
that are not as hot as the fist scenario (yet still warm and
humid). Thus, we will continue to follow with what the NBM
provides at this time, given the uncertainty. So, right now we
will advertise the continuation of mid-upper 80s through the
middle of next week, with increasing humidity and daily chances
for precipitation (30-50%). While this sounds similar to what we
are currently seeing, the main difference is that there will be
stronger forcing in play throughout the Midwest next week,
providing the potential for more widespread showers/storms. It
is also too soon to dive into details about any severe
potential, but keep in mind that we are in the season where
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with a
brief period of MVFR vis possible at DBQ this evening. These vis
reductions will be associated with storms that can impact the
area, covered by a PROB30 group at this time. Confidence remains
low on whether the storms will reach south enough to impact
DBQ. After 08z, we should see chances for showers/storms
decrease, with flight conditions improving. Otherwise, winds
will remain southwesterly until around 00z, becoming southerly
between 5-10 KTs beyond then. Overnight, outflow and the frontal
boundary may also lead to a period of light and variable winds.
This will impact DBQ by 06z, pushing south beyond then, with
light northeasterly winds north of the boundary. Otherwise, no
sig wx is expected at this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel