824 FXUS63 KDVN 111947 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 247 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal (level 1/5) and Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe storms today, largely along and north of Highway 20. Main threats with storms will be severe hail and wind, but the threat is low locally. - Active pattern will continue into the weekend, with daily chances for showers/storms. Overall the severe threat is low through the weekend. Rather, we can expect pop-up showers/storms each afternoon. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period, with most in the mid-upper 80s through at least the start of next week. - Potential for an even more active pattern to set up next week, resulting in chances for very hot conditions and/or an active storm track. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Stalled boundary will remain draped along/north of the Highway 20 corridor through the afternoon and evening, with bouts of energy passing along it from a weak wave. These will provide the forcing necessary to develop scattered showers/storms through the evening, with some becoming strong to severe. The SPC has outlooked these areas in a Marginal Risk, level 1/5, for severe weather. This afternoon, they also introduced a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the areas with the best chance. Although, our confidence is low on the overall severe threat, especially with some short term guidance keeping the convection north of our area. Thus, confidence in anyone south of Highway 20 seeing storms, let alone any severe, is low at this point. Locations along Highway 20 also have the chance to end up dry, but the storms will be close enough to the area that mention of the potential was needed. Best chances will be along and north of Highway 20, which is highlighted well amongst guidance. This will be something to watch through the afternoon and evening though, as if the front pushes farther south, that would bring the convection farther into our area. Thus, a little extra room in the outlook area has been provided. This activity will continue into the mid-evening, diminishing around 10pm-12am local time. From there, we will be left with passing clouds, light winds, and mild temperatures tonight. Tomorrow, boundary remains draped over the forecast area once again, starting near the Interstate 80 corridor and pulling north by the afternoon hours. LLVL southerly flow will help push this boundary north, with scattered showers and storms developing as it does. While we are not expecting a washout, the coverage of PoPs is greater tomorrow, with more areas possibly seeing at least a shower/storm through the afternoon. We are not expecting severe weather at this time. Rather, garden variety thunderstorms are expected. Best chances will be in the afternoon hours along and north of Interstate 80, as daytime heating helps build better instability, with increasing moisture as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Active pattern will continue through much of the forecast period, as we will continue to see diurnal convection through Friday and into Saturday. Stalled out boundary in weak upper level flow regime will remain the main forcing, with some weak bouts of energy providing the upper level support. We largely have continuous PoPs through this timeframe (15-25%), but the better chances will be each afternoon and evening (30-50%), as we get daytime heating to build instability. Through the end of the week, we will also see better moisture work in, allowing for more coverage of storms. At this time, we are not expecting severe weather. Saturday, we will largely remain dry, with the best chances for storms along and east of the Mississippi River, as the pattern changes and a cold front pushes through the area. Temperatures will remain above normal, with most in the mid- upper 80s and a mix of clouds/sun. Sunday and beyond, the already active pattern becomes potentially more active. Ridging develops over the Central Plains, which would place parts of the Midwest under northwest flow, at the edge of the heat dome. There remains some placement and timing differences amongst guidance, but they have near-daily waves riding along the edge of the heat dome and crashing through the Midwest. What does this mean? Well, this would indicate that somewhere in the Midwest is likely to fall under a near-daily track for MCSs, with the others dry and very hot. This is normal during this time of the year and we have seen this pattern many times. Although, this pattern does lead to high uncertainty. There are two scenarios that usually come out of this pattern: very hot conditions, with near extreme heat under the heat dome and dry, or you fall under the MCS track through the week, resulting in temperatures that are not as hot as the fist scenario (yet still warm and humid). Thus, we will continue to follow with what the NBM provides at this time, given the uncertainty. So, right now we will advertise the continuation of mid-upper 80s through the middle of next week, with increasing humidity and daily chances for precipitation (30-50%). While this sounds similar to what we are currently seeing, the main difference is that there will be stronger forcing in play throughout the Midwest next week, providing the potential for more widespread showers/storms. It is also too soon to dive into details about any severe potential, but keep in mind that we are in the season where strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with a brief period of MVFR vis possible at DBQ this evening. These vis reductions will be associated with storms that can impact the area, covered by a PROB30 group at this time. Confidence remains low on whether the storms will reach south enough to impact DBQ. After 08z, we should see chances for showers/storms decrease, with flight conditions improving. Otherwise, winds will remain southwesterly until around 00z, becoming southerly between 5-10 KTs beyond then. Overnight, outflow and the frontal boundary may also lead to a period of light and variable winds. This will impact DBQ by 06z, pushing south beyond then, with light northeasterly winds north of the boundary. Otherwise, no sig wx is expected at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel