703 FXUS63 KDVN 011022 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 522 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires will continue to stream southward into early next week. Some of the smoke could mix down to the surface and lead to reduced air quality at times. - An active pattern returns Tuesday through Thursday of next week, bringing higher chances for widespread showers and storms. Some storms could become strong to severe on Tuesday, although confidence remains low on the details and overall potential. - Beneficial rain is expected next week, with most of it falling Tuesday and Tuesday night. The NBM has a 60-70% chance for 1" or more of rainfall across most of the outlook area for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Today: A pleasant and warm end to the weekend is expected with highs ranging from the upper 70s north and east of the Quad Cities to the low/mid 80s elsewhere. High pressure in control over the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions will lead to light winds and low humidity with dewpoints in the 40s/50s. Wildfire smoke from forest fires in Canada will continue to move over the region, but should stay aloft today due to minimal boundary layer mixing. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 50s for lows. Monday: The surface high will slide off to the east, leading to a warm southerly return flow across a large portion of the Midwest. Steady low-level warm air advection (850mb temps in the mid to upper teens C) will help to push highs into the mid to upper 80s, with a few locations potentially reaching around 90 degrees. However, with dewpoints only in the mid 50s to near 60, the heat index will closely match the air temperature. It will be another day dealing with wildfire smoke initially aloft and a hazy sky. There is some potential for lower smoke concentrations to mix down to the surface with the breezy south winds developing, which could lead to minor reductions in air quality. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 For Tuesday through Thursday, a more active pattern is expected as an upper-level trough and attendant cold front approaches the region. Abundant moisture from the Gulf should advect higher PWAT values around 1.7 to 2.0 inches per the GEFS ensemble plumes by Tuesday afternoon. This first trough should phase in with a southern stream trough coming from the southwestern CONUS, arriving on Thursday. Combined, these two waves will result in a prolonged period of rainfall chances Tuesday through Thursday (though not a complete washout), with a soaking rainfall expected across the area. Looking at a 72-hr period from Tuesday through Thursday, NBM exceedance probabilities of one inch or more of total rainfall is between 50 to 70 percent and between 20 to 40 percent for two inches or more. It`s still a little early to assess specific details for the severe weather potential, which will depend on the timing of the cold front Tuesday. Machine learning guidance continues to highlight the area with lower-end severe weather probabilities (~15%) and SPC has a Day 3 Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over nearly the entire forecast area. Expect some adjustments to these coverage details as we get closer to the event as new models become available. Further out in the extended, a brief reprieve from the wet weather is anticipated later Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 516 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will lead to VFR conditions and light winds (under 10 kts) through the period. Wildfire smoke aloft will remain over the area, but do not expect it to mix to the surface today. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech AVIATION...Uttech