083
FXUS63 KDVN 091734
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather in the short term as some high level smoke may
  move through tomorrow.

- Pattern turns active with the first chance of storms, some
  strong to severe on Wednesday.

- Temperatures are forecast to warm as well to above normal
  values later in the week and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Upper level low across the area is forecast to move east of the
area overnight tonight into Tuesday. A surface cold front moving
through the area today will bring keep in place drier and cooler
air across the area. Tomorrow, ridging attempts to build into
the area leading to return flow. This return flow will bring
slightly warmer more moist airmass than today to the area.
Dewpoints in the 50s with highs near 80 will still be nice from
a sensible weather perspective. With the flow NW tomorrow, some
smoke may make its way into the area. Have kept cloud cover at
20 percent or above to account for the possible milky skies.
Beware though, the sun is still out and close to its nadir for
the year so be sure to still wear sunscreen!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The long term begins on a dry note Tuesday, thanks to a large area
of high pressure progged to set up across the southern MS River
Valley region. The upper-level trough that will be north of our
region today will gradually shift eastward. We are expecting skies
to look a bit murky once again from smoke aloft over our region,
given higher smoke concentrations moving in per the latest HRRR and
RRFS smoke models. High temperatures should warm to the lower 80s
Tuesday, with even warmer conditions likely for Wednesday thanks to
southern return flow/warm air advection as the aforementioned high
pressure system translates eastward. Both the EC and GEFS ensembles
suggest 850 mb temperatures between 17 to 19 degree C, which is
around the 90th percentile per the SPC sounding climatology for June
11th. NBM seems to have trended a little warmer still Wednesday,
with highs warming to the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west.

As we head into late Wednesday through the end of the week, the
pattern is expected to become more active as flow aloft becomes more
zonal, with a few mid-level shortwaves passing through the region.
One particular wave that`s progged to move through Wednesday evening
into early Thursday could generate some strong to severe storms with
it as it traverses a warm frontal zone at the surface across our
northern CWA. An unstable air mass should be in place, characterized
by GEFS ensemble exceedance probabilities of 2000 J/kg of CAPE
around 60 to 90%. Both the GEFS and NSSL ML severe probs are
highlighting this time frame for severe storms, and SPC has
introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms for
locations along and north of Interstate 80 for late Wednesday.
Timing remains a bit uncertain, but convection looks most likely in
the late afternoon/evening hours.

Generally seasonal temperatures are expected for Thursday through
the upcoming weekend, with 20 to 50% chances of showers and storms
Thursday through Friday night. Greater uncertainty in timing of
activity exists for this time frame, but we expect dry periods mixed
in, so not a complete washout.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period as gusty winds
this afternoon are the main impacts to aviation expected. Winds
will slacken tonight and be maybe 2 to 4 kts lower than
forecast, but decided to keep TAF short as winds will be less
than 10kts overall into tomorrow AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Cousins/Schultz
AVIATION...Gibbs