083 FXUS63 KDVN 091734 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather in the short term as some high level smoke may move through tomorrow. - Pattern turns active with the first chance of storms, some strong to severe on Wednesday. - Temperatures are forecast to warm as well to above normal values later in the week and into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Upper level low across the area is forecast to move east of the area overnight tonight into Tuesday. A surface cold front moving through the area today will bring keep in place drier and cooler air across the area. Tomorrow, ridging attempts to build into the area leading to return flow. This return flow will bring slightly warmer more moist airmass than today to the area. Dewpoints in the 50s with highs near 80 will still be nice from a sensible weather perspective. With the flow NW tomorrow, some smoke may make its way into the area. Have kept cloud cover at 20 percent or above to account for the possible milky skies. Beware though, the sun is still out and close to its nadir for the year so be sure to still wear sunscreen! && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The long term begins on a dry note Tuesday, thanks to a large area of high pressure progged to set up across the southern MS River Valley region. The upper-level trough that will be north of our region today will gradually shift eastward. We are expecting skies to look a bit murky once again from smoke aloft over our region, given higher smoke concentrations moving in per the latest HRRR and RRFS smoke models. High temperatures should warm to the lower 80s Tuesday, with even warmer conditions likely for Wednesday thanks to southern return flow/warm air advection as the aforementioned high pressure system translates eastward. Both the EC and GEFS ensembles suggest 850 mb temperatures between 17 to 19 degree C, which is around the 90th percentile per the SPC sounding climatology for June 11th. NBM seems to have trended a little warmer still Wednesday, with highs warming to the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west. As we head into late Wednesday through the end of the week, the pattern is expected to become more active as flow aloft becomes more zonal, with a few mid-level shortwaves passing through the region. One particular wave that`s progged to move through Wednesday evening into early Thursday could generate some strong to severe storms with it as it traverses a warm frontal zone at the surface across our northern CWA. An unstable air mass should be in place, characterized by GEFS ensemble exceedance probabilities of 2000 J/kg of CAPE around 60 to 90%. Both the GEFS and NSSL ML severe probs are highlighting this time frame for severe storms, and SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms for locations along and north of Interstate 80 for late Wednesday. Timing remains a bit uncertain, but convection looks most likely in the late afternoon/evening hours. Generally seasonal temperatures are expected for Thursday through the upcoming weekend, with 20 to 50% chances of showers and storms Thursday through Friday night. Greater uncertainty in timing of activity exists for this time frame, but we expect dry periods mixed in, so not a complete washout. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the period as gusty winds this afternoon are the main impacts to aviation expected. Winds will slacken tonight and be maybe 2 to 4 kts lower than forecast, but decided to keep TAF short as winds will be less than 10kts overall into tomorrow AM. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Cousins/Schultz AVIATION...Gibbs