333 FXUS63 KOAX 280429 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat will remain in place through Monday and potentially stretch into Tuesday. Expect afternoon heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees. - Drier conditions are favored through at least mid-day Monday, with higher storm potential returning late Tuesday into Wednesday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and localized flooding the main threats. - Cooler conditions return for next week`s second half with on and off rain chances. The repeated rounds of rain could lead to an increasing threat of flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Some good ol` "air you can wear" out there this afternoon, with 3 PM temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, dewpoints in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and heat index values of 105-115+. The Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning remain in effect and similar, if not warmer, conditions are expected Monday with the area- wide Extreme Heat Warning still in place. The good news is there`s some relief just south of the Canadian border in the form of a cold front. The bad news is it`s still 2-3 days out. The other thing of note heading into this evening is a surface trough across southern SD into central and western NE with convergence along it leading to a few showers bubbling up already this afternoon. Additional storm development is expected in its vicinity as we head into this evening, but guidance is in fairly good agreement that this activity will stay out of our area. That said, there are a few solutions that do clip northeast NE with a few storms around midnight or just after and if that does happen, could see some gusty winds. Kind of a similar setup Monday with a surface trough/dry line across western NE, though the cold front to our north will be moving a little closer. Expect storm development near both of these features by the afternoon. Once again, guidance is in pretty good agreement that most of our area will stay dry, likely owing to some pretty dry air aloft, but again a few solutions clip northeast NE with some activity in the evening. The front will finally start pushing in on Tuesday and provide some relief from the heat to northern portions of the area. Still some questions on just how far south it makes it during the day. This will impact both storm chances later that day/night and need for another heat headline (likely an advisory). Current consensus would favor much of southeast NE (including Omaha and Lincoln) and southwest IA in a new advisory, but still just enough uncertainty to preclude issuing at this point. Hopefully short term guidance gives us some more hints tonight. Regarding the storm chances, expect development by late afternoon/evening along the cold front with some supporting shortwave energy overnight. Given the hot and humid airmass ahead of the front, there will be plenty of instability in place to support a severe storm threat. However, weak shear will likely keep things somewhat disorganized, but even with that, would still expect at least a damaging wind and heavy rain/localized flooding threat with potential for training storms along the boundary. The front looks to stay in or just south of the area through Wednesday with continued showers and storms along and north of it. Even once the front is well to our south, we`ll see on and off shower and storm chances as various bits of shortwave energy slide through, with the current forecast indicating at least 15-20% chances each day. While the hail/wind/tornado threat will be pretty minimal behind the front, the repeated rounds could lead to an increasing flooding threat. Otherwise, temperatures behind the front will quickly fall off with widespread highs in the 70s expected Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 VFR conditions to hold with mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Increasing winds out of the southwest to around 35kt around 1000-1500 ft will lead to LLWS at the terminals for a few hours overnight, ending around 10-11Z. Otherwise, winds remain out of the south, increasing to 12g20kt Monday afternoon and relaxing again Monday evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-090-091-093. Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for NEZ078-088-089-092. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ078- 088-089-092. IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-069- 079-080-090-091. Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for IAZ056. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for IAZ056. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...McCoy