131 FXUS63 KDVN 141135 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 635 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather during the day today with some morning fog and clouds expected. - Active weather starts this evening and ramps up in intensity through the middle of the week. Near daily chances of storms are expected. - Strong to severe storms are possible across the region on Wednesday and Thursday as our typical summertime MCS pattern appears to be setting up. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Upper level low is moving east of the area this morning. While the flow is easterly, cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures up this evening. Drier air that was forecast to move in from the east tonight, is struggling to make it west. As a result dewpoints have stayed up as well. In the wake of this upper low and rain across the southern CWA yesterday, some fog has developed. Patchy dense fog was found across MO this AM. As the low pulls further east, we could lose some of the lower level clouds and this dense fog could become more widespread. If this happens, a DFA may be needed for portions of the CWA this morning. Today, when the clouds burn off a nice day is expected. While temperatures in the 70s to low 80s dewpoints are expected to increase area wide into the mid 60s. The will be noticeably more humid. Tonight, ridging builds into the area. Our flow is weakly NW, so waves riding around the ridge are expected to move into our area. Instability looks to weak tonight and the waves moving through the flow doesn`t really fire a decent LLJ. As a result, showers and storms look to be diurnal in nature. CAMs have the best footprint for these showers and storms across the NW CWA. With lack of flow, single cell storms and/or cold pool dominated storms will drive storm mode today. Will add this to HWO, stating that evening showers and storms are possible across east central Iowa, with no severe weather expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Forecast remains on track in the long term. Overall pattern is a large ridge of the central CONUS, as return flow brings above average temps and dewpoints in the 60s to 70s to the area. Each day, temps and humidity will build. The first chance for organized convection in this thermodynamic environment will be Sunday afternoon as a wave moves through the area during peak heating. CAPE will be higher tomorrow, but still not enough to really get widespread storms. The best chance for storms will once again be across east central Iowa. Into the work week, we start to build even more CAPE as a series of stronger waves move into the area. These waves will increase shear. As they move through the area Wednesday and Thursday strong to severe storms are possible. The main question is whether or not we will be capped. Whoever is on the edge of the cap with this environment will likely see severe storms. So now we enter our typical summer pattern where forecast skill is lower, unless a decent wave moves through. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 MVFR ceilings and visibilities have developed across the area early this morning. Visibilities are forecast to improve through 15 UTC with ceilings slow to dissipate and lift through 18 UTC when VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be easterly through the period 5 to 10 knots. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Cousins