382 FXUS63 KDVN 100519 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather in the short term as some high level smoke may move through tomorrow. - Pattern turns active with the first chance of storms, some strong to severe on Wednesday. - Temperatures are forecast to warm as well to above normal values later in the week and into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Upper level low across the area is forecast to move east of the area overnight tonight into Tuesday. A surface cold front moving through the area today will bring keep in place drier and cooler air across the area. Tomorrow, ridging attempts to build into the area leading to return flow. This return flow will bring slightly warmer more moist airmass than today to the area. Dewpoints in the 50s with highs near 80 will still be nice from a sensible weather perspective. With the flow NW tomorrow, some smoke may make its way into the area. Have kept cloud cover at 20 percent or above to account for the possible milky skies. Still though don`t forget the sunscreen! && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Return flow will start in earnest Tuesday evening into Wednesday as a cold front moves south through MN. Guidance has this boundary stopping just to our north a weak wave passes over it on Wednesday, leading to showers, storms, some severe and heavy rain. After this, ridging attempts to build into the area. Repeated waves around the top of this ridge will lead to repeated chances for showers and storms through most of the long term period. WPC has close to 2 inches of rain through day 7 across the northern CWA. Dewpoints will increase across the area reaching the 60s. Looking to Wednesday, there is a marginal risk for severe weather across the northern CWA in the vicinity of this boundary on Wednesday. Deep layer shear in the 35 to 45 kt range will lead to thunderstorm updraft organization. With increasing CAPE to the south, plentiful instability will be around for storms. Flow near the boundary looks to be out of the east, while the 0-3km shear vector is more out of the west, suggesting good directional shear in the low levels. That said, the 0-3km shear vector along with the 0-6km shear vector being parallel to the boundary suggest multicell storms, however we could see some short-lived low level rotation. The main threat from any storm would be damaging winds, heavy rain with even a chance of brief tornadoes. The GFS also has up to 2 inches of rain with this system. These values would have to be convectively driven as the overall synoptic flow is lacking a real H85 jet to really advect good moisture. Nonetheless, this starts our chances for precip across the area for the rest of the long term period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Surface high pressure is sliding across the Central Plains this morning with VFR conditions expected through the period. Smokey skies aloft will one again filter across the region from wildfires in Canada. At this time we are not expecting visibility restrictions at the surface. Winds will be out of the west through the day and switch to out of the south in the evening hours. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Britt