123
FXUS63 KDVN 220640
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
140 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected through Tuesday
  before the next storm system brings scattered showers and
  thunderstorms (30-50% coverage) to the area on Wednesday.

- Weak disturbance and high pressure to keep temperatures
  comfortable and precipitation chances low (10-30%) for the
  end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Today...The shortwave trough that gave use a cool, rainy Father`s
Day finally clears the area as subsidence sets in and a high
pressure anchors to our north. Besides some lingering low-level
clouds and drizzle across west-central Illinois, skies are
expected to thin out by this afternoon with highs rebounding to
the 70s. Surface winds will be out of the northeast around 5-15
mph before subsiding after sunset, but confluence on the
southern flank of the high pressure and a lake breeze brings
back scattered clouds and light showers across northwest
Illinois and east-central Iowa Monday evening. This is
forecasted to hamper radiational cooling despite the light and
variable winds with lows only dropping into upper 50s and low
60s.

Tuesday...The high pressure to our north shifts eastward as a
trough digs into the Northern Plains, turning our winds back out
of the south. Cirrus outflow and mid-level clouds start to roll
in from the northwest, and the skies gradually become broken to
overcast during the day on Tuesday. This will keep highs in the
mid-to-upper 70s, but luckily, dry low levels should restrict
precipitation chances during the daytime.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Tuesday Night-Wednesday...As the next shortwave shifts into northern
Minnesota, a weak surface low and cold front will develop over
Minnesota and propagate southeastward towards our CWA.
Dewpoints will climb back into the 60s ahead of this front which
will act as the main axis for showers and storms to develop
Wednesday. The relatively short period of southerly return flow
and a weak LLJ should restrict PWAT values to only 1 to 1.5
inches, so excessive rainfall does not appear likely.
Regardless, according to the 22.01z NBM run, there is a low-to-
medium chance (30-50%) for much of the CWA to receive measurable
rainfall. In terms of severe weather, the threat is currently
low, but daytime heating could allow SBCAPE values to exceed 500
J/kg underneath at least 30 knots of sfc-to-500mb bulk shear
(50-70% chance) during the afternoon. By late Wednesday evening,
PoPs should decrease as the cold front clears the CWA and
northerly flow returns in the low levels.

Thursday-Friday...A weak surface trough on the backside of the low
pressure now over the Great Lakes may keep some cloud cover and
isolated light showers around on Thursday morning, especially
along and east of the Mississippi River. By Thursday afternoon,
a weak high pressure translate southward into the Northern
Plains. The continued northerly flow is forecasted to keep
temperatures comfortable in the 70s (70-90% chance). By
Thursday evening, a mid-level shortwave ejects into the Central
Plains, deepening a low pressure center over northern Texas. The
low amplitude of this trough is expected to limit development
of this system on Friday, but a mid-level F-gen band, similar to
yesterday`s set-up, could produce isolated showers south of
Interstate 80 Friday afternoon through Friday night.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure continues to anchor over the Great
Lakes region on Saturday, keeping conditions quiet. The 21.12z LREF
run is hinting at a shortwave ridge building in over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley Saturday night into Sunday as the next
longwave trough digs into the western CONUS. Surface
cyclogenesis along the Front Range of the Rockies is growing
increasingly likely (50-70%) overnight Saturday into Sunday.
Southerly flow ahead of this developing system and ridging could
kick off a warming and moistening trend heading into next week
noted by the CPC`s 6- 10-Day Temperature Outlook showing a
40-60% chance for above normal temperatures and the 21.12z LREF
run having exceedance probabilities of 70-90% for dew points to
climb into the 70s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A MVFR to IFR stratus cloud deck is moving to the southwest and
is currently impacting KMLI and KBRL. Conditions will improve to
VFR conditions as this cloud deck clear KMLI in the next couple
hours and KBRL around daybreak. Towards the north, areas of fog
are developing near KALO (Waterloo, Iowa) and could spread
southeastward towards KDBQ and KCID. There is growing confidence
(currently 30-50%) that this LIFR fog reaches KDBQ with lower
confidence (20-30%) of it reaching KCID. This is why a TEMPO
group for fog was added to KDBQ and not KCID, but amendments
will be made if conditions deteriorate quicker than expected or
confidence increases. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for
all sites starting mid-morning through rest of the TAF period
with northeasterly flow at around 5-10 knots.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Delaune
LONG TERM...Delaune
AVIATION...Delaune