970
FXUS63 KDVN 081101
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
601 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally dense fog is possible early this morning, particularly for
  areas that received rainfall yesterday.

- Strong to severe storm potential remains on track for today,
  with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms possible
  this afternoon for locations south of the Quad Cities.
  Damaging winds will be the main threats, with secondary
  threats for large hail and an isolated tornado.

- Seasonal temperatures will continue before warming up by mid-
  week next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

As of 3 AM/08z this morning, we continue to see variable
visibilities over the area due to fog, thanks to partly to mostly
clear skies and moist boundary layer air from yesterday`s
rainfall in some locations. Some locations early this morning have
seen visibilities as low as 1/4 mile, but it seems to be more
isolated in nature, and even variable temporally, which has
precluded us from a Dense Fog Advisory, although things around
the Quad Cities and points east where rainfall occurred
yesterday appears to be showing better signs of persistent fog.
Due to the variable nature of the visibility reductions, we
continue to have an SPS for locations along our southeast,
including the Quad Cities. If traveling early this morning, just
be prepared for reduced visibilities, which could change
rapidly over short distances. Slow down and keep headlights on
low beam!

As we head through the late morning and afternoon hours today,
attention then turns to increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms across the area, some of which could become strong to
severe. The culprit for this activity is a deep longwave upper-level
trough over the north-central CONUS, seen on current GOES-East mid-
level water vapor imagery. Ahead of the trough, a leading PVA maxima
and attendant cold front will make its way through the region later
on today, which will provide the large scale forcing for this
activity. The overall setup for this event remains on track, with
pretty strong kinematics, especially in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere, with 500 mb level flow progged to be around 50 to 70+
knots per the 08.00z HREF ensemble. This would be near 97 percent of
the ECMWF ensemble climatology, so pretty strong flow for this
time of the year. Enhanced deep-layer shear of 35 to 45 knots
should support organized convective updrafts, with damaging
wind gusts as the main threat. Large hail is also possible,
although appears to be a secondary threat due to more limited
mid-level lapse rates (~6 C/km), and an isolated tornado can`t
be ruled out entirely. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level
2 of 5) of severe weather for locations south of the Quad
Cities, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for locations along
and south of a line from Sigourney, IA to Galena, IL. The
approximate window for severe weather appears to be slightly
earlier than previously messaged, generally between noon to 5 PM
this afternoon.

In the wake of the cold front and the severe storm threat, an area
of trailing stratiform rain is expected to follow quickly behind so
precipitation should continue this afternoon and early evening
before drier air filters in behind for tonight. Depending on the
rainfall totals, which could be as high as a half inch per the
08.00z HREF QPF PMM, clear skies tonight could result in another
night with areas of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The closed 500 mb low is progged to eventually exit northern MN late
Monday towards the western Great Lakes region. Before then,
additional chances (20 to 40%) of showers will be with us Monday,
especially for areas along and north of Highway 30.
Temperatures Monday will be cooler and range from near 70 north
to the mid 70s to the south.

High pressure is forecast to build into the area at the surface and
aloft on Tuesday and Wednesday with quiet weather. It will be
noticeably warmer by Wednesday with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s as high pressure moves to the east of us and dewpoints
climb into the lower to mid 60s.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Wednesday with
zonal flow across the CONUS. There are a series of shortwave troughs
and ridges that will move across the Upper Midwest through the end
of the period. This will bring chances of showers and storms to the
area each day but the timing of those chances will likely change as
we get closer. There will likely be several dry hours each day.
Temperatures will be in the 80s Thursday through Friday with lows in
the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Areas of MVFR to LIFR fog has developed early this morning,
especially for the eastern three TAF sites (DBQ, MLI, and BRL).
Eventually, these visibility reductions will improve by mid-
morning today.

Attention then turns to a cold front that will bring increasing
chances of showers and even a few storms for late this morning
through the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could be
strong, with locally stronger wind gusts. MVFR visibility
reductions are possible in the heavier showers, but confidence
in the overall coverage is low at this time. Westerly winds will
be common later today once they strengthen, gusting to around
20 to 25 knots at times.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ066-068.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ007-009-
     015>017-024.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz/Cousins
AVIATION...Schultz