584 FXUS63 KDMX 092330 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of smoke to persist tonight - Noticeably warmer Wednesday - Next chance (60-70 percent) for more organized, widespread precipitation Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night & into Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Main forecast concern today centers on the mid to late week system. Upper low is finally departing across the Great Lakes, with the pattern adjusting to a more zonal flow over the midwest. As the surface ridge slides off to the south and east Tuesday, a warm front sets up in its wake over northern Iowa. This front will provide the initial focus for storms Wednesday. Given the available instability near and especially south of the boundary, thunderstorms are likely. Given the instability, could see some embedded severe storms as well. The front is expected to linger in the vicinity of northern Iowa/southern Minnesota through Thursday, keeping the rain chances around through the period. The details for Thursday depend largely on the position of the front and any remnant outflow boundaries from convection the day/night before. Given the zonal flow aloft along the boundary and available moisture, areas near the front and aforementioned boundaries will need careful monitoring for heavy rain and flooding potential. Meanwhile, energy currently over southern California is forecast to meander across the southern US and potentially interact with the northern stream by late week. Lots of spread in the model solutions however, so confidence remains low at this time on this evolution. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Cellular bkn to sct clouds with bases at 5-7 kft over Iowa will continue to dissipate this evening and overnight. Some cumulus may redevelop on Tuesday around 5 kft. Breezy northwest wind will diminish this evening and become more westerly. The wind may reach 12 kt or higher sustained by late morning and into the afternoon Tuesday and turn more west/southwest. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMD AVIATION...Donavon