473 FXUS63 KDMX 091715 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1215 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of smoke to persist tonight - Breezy start to the week, shower chances (20-50 percent) north/northeast - First 90 degree temperatures of the year expected Wednesday - Next chance (60-70 percent) for more organized, widespread precipitation will be Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night & into Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Weak "cool" front pushed any instability and thunderstorm chances south into MO earlier today. In its wake, forcing/moisture along the trailing H7 front has been enough to produce area of light rain showers this afternoon for areas along and south of Interstate 80. Amounts have been/will continue to be very light - perhaps as much as a few hundredths of an inch. Lift wanes and moisture departs this evening, and so too will the shower chances. Latest HRRR near-surface smoke output keeps smoke from Canadian wildfires thru the overnight for areas generally across generally the southern 2/3 of the state, with some dispersion towards morning. Otherwise the parent upper low near the Boundary Waters at the moment, will slowly dive southeast into WI by midday Monday, sliding another mid- level shortwave and associated "cool" front into northeast IA. Shower chances (20-50 percent) will be confined to mainly northeast counties as a result. Similar to today, limited lift/instability will result in any amounts being very light. Elsewhere conditions will be dry beneath partly cloudy skies along with northwest winds that will turn breezy with gusts of 20-30 mph common most places. The pesky upper low finally departs Monday night and Tuesday leaving dry northwest flow with temperatures rebounding as H85 warm-air thermal advection returning; and along with full insolation will boost temperatures back into the 80s and Tuesday and what will likely be the first 90s of the season for Wednesday. The next organized and more widespread rain chances return to Iowa beginning late Wednesday, continuing off and on through the end of the week. Latest model output stalls the warm frontal boundary somewhere across northern Iowa/southern Minnesota beginning late Wednesday, continuing into Thursday. PWATs increase to 1.5-2, which would put it at 90% of historical daily norms. All this to say that this will be favorable set-up for a swath of good rain near where the warm front ends up at. Instability will sufficient for severe potential as well, especially across northern Iowa on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Details will become more clear over the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Upper low over Wisconsin continues to drive aviation weather over Iowa today. Low level mixing has raised area ceilings in northern Iowa to VFR, thus this TAF forecast is VFR through the period. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible at MCW and ALO this afternoon, but probability is too low to include in TAFs at this time. Otherwise, surface winds are gusty from the northwest this afternoon, relaxing this evening and backing to the west or southwest overnight. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Lee DISCUSSION...Hahn AVIATION...DMD