474 FXUS63 KDVN 120825 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 325 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern will continue into the weekend, with daily chances for showers/storms. Overall the severe threat is low through the weekend. Rather, we can expect pop-up showers/storms each afternoon. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period, with most in the mid-upper 80s through at least the start of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Today: Last nights convection has largely tapered off with stratiform rain lingering over our far northern counties. Surface wind fields place another outflow boundary moving NW to SE towards the Quad Cities early this morning. This will likely act as a focal point for several storms to launch off this afternoon. Our overall regime remains warm and moist with highs climbing into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon. By the afternoon we will see towering cumulus clouds building in a corridor of MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Deep layer shear and mid level lapse rates remain absent preventing storms from achieving the tilt needed for longevity. As such we are not expecting severe weather for this afternoon and evening. Expect pulse type thunderstorms as they collapse on themselves and their outflow boundaries feed additional storms. Tomorrow: The baroclinic zone that is the focus for more prolific convection remains north of the CWA draped through southern MN and WI. We could see some morning rain and storms as a low level jet ramps up out of the south. This stream of winds will inject higher PWATs in excess of 1.5" extending from NE MO through northern IL. Aloft there will also be a vorticity couplet rotating in from the south to aid in some synoptic forcing. Precipitation chances will spread out more through the afternoon following diurnal trends. But the better chances 30-60% PoPs will remain across the IA and IL border. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Extended: Largely a rinse and repeat through the extended forecast. Cluster analysis suggests shows upper level ridging over the Intermountain West. Through the time period we occasionally see some shortwaves ripple down the backside of the ridge and impact the Midwest. With the low levels predominantly remaining out of the south and southwest we will continuously see gulf moisture moving through the area. The best chances for storms and rain showers will be in the afternoon hours as diurnal heating will be a strong driver for much of the forecast. That`s not to say every morning will be uneventful, but they will be more associated with those aforementioned shortwaves. Currently model agreement on timing and placement of shortwaves in the extended is rather poor. Overall, we continue to carry 20-40% PoPs through the weekend and into early next week. Severe chances don`t look impressive at this time as deep layer shear is just not present through most the period. As we move into the midweek timeframe some better shear may arrive as mid level flow strengthens. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Radar tonight shows some training storms over northern IA. Storm motions are very slow and at this time we do not anticipate these cells making it into CID or DBQ. Tomorrow we will see another round of showers and storms develop across the region. These are expected to be widely scattered in nature during the afternoon hours. Better chances will be along the outflow boundary that went through this evening and is expected to stall out over the Quad Cities area before lifting north. Pulse type storms are expected with no severe weather forecasted. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Britt LONG TERM...Britt AVIATION...Britt