474
FXUS63 KDVN 120825
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
325 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern will continue into the weekend, with daily
  chances for showers/storms. Overall the severe threat is low
  through the weekend. Rather, we can expect pop-up
  showers/storms each afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
  period, with most in the mid-upper 80s through at least the
  start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Today:

Last nights convection has largely tapered off with stratiform rain
lingering over our far northern counties. Surface wind fields place
another outflow boundary moving NW to SE towards the Quad Cities
early this morning. This will likely act as a focal point for
several storms to launch off this afternoon. Our overall regime
remains warm and moist with highs climbing into the mid and upper
80s this afternoon. By the afternoon we will see towering cumulus
clouds building in a corridor of MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Deep layer
shear and mid level lapse rates remain absent preventing storms from
achieving the tilt needed for longevity. As such we are not
expecting severe weather for this afternoon and evening. Expect
pulse type thunderstorms as they collapse on themselves and their
outflow boundaries feed additional storms.

Tomorrow:

The baroclinic zone that is the focus for more prolific convection
remains north of the CWA draped through southern MN and WI. We could
see some morning rain and storms as a low level jet ramps up out of
the south. This stream of winds will inject higher PWATs in excess
of 1.5" extending from NE MO through northern IL. Aloft there will
also be a vorticity couplet rotating in from the south to aid in
some synoptic forcing. Precipitation chances will spread out more
through the afternoon following diurnal trends. But the better
chances 30-60% PoPs will remain across the IA and IL border.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Extended:

Largely a rinse and repeat through the extended forecast. Cluster
analysis suggests shows upper level ridging over the Intermountain
West. Through the time period we occasionally see some shortwaves
ripple down the backside of the ridge and impact the Midwest. With
the low levels predominantly remaining out of the south and
southwest we will continuously see gulf moisture moving through the
area. The best chances for storms and rain showers will be in the
afternoon hours as diurnal heating will be a strong driver for much
of the forecast. That`s not to say every morning will be uneventful,
but they will be more associated with those aforementioned
shortwaves. Currently model agreement on timing and placement of
shortwaves in the extended is rather poor. Overall, we continue to
carry 20-40% PoPs through the weekend and into early next week.
Severe chances don`t look impressive at this time as deep layer
shear is just not present through most the period. As we move into
the midweek timeframe some better shear may arrive as mid level flow
strengthens.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Radar tonight shows some training storms over northern IA. Storm
motions are very slow and at this time we do not anticipate these
cells making it into CID or DBQ. Tomorrow we will see another
round of showers and storms develop across the region. These are
expected to be widely scattered in nature during the afternoon
hours. Better chances will be along the outflow boundary that
went through this evening and is expected to stall out over the
Quad Cities area before lifting north. Pulse type storms are
expected with no severe weather forecasted.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Britt
LONG TERM...Britt
AVIATION...Britt