531 FXUS61 KILN 020037 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 837 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the region into the middle of the week. Temperatures will be on a warming trend, peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a chance of showers and thunderstorms returns late in the week as a cold front slowly approaches the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Ongoing fcst remains on track for the near term period. Only notable change this evening was the addition of some BR/FG in srn river valley locales where there is a source of near-ground moisture and winds will be calm, providing a supportive environment for at least some patchy fog in these areas. Skies clear of clouds, but high thin smoke expected to continue especially in the southwest forecast area. Continued to keep mention 30 to 35% sky obscuration. Overnight lows will moderate some compared to last night, with lows in the upper 40s to near 50, though lower 40s likely in the east. Winds becoming light and variable as the surface high becomes centered over the area overnight, with some increased potential for light valley fog. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high will slowly slide SE of the region through the day on Monday, with light/variable winds succumbing to return flow in the afternoon, beginning SW flow and the start of more earnest warm air advection. Still another day of slightly below normal temperatures of mid to upper 70s, with areas along/west of I-75 warmer than points east. 12z HRRR Near surface and vertically integrated smoke modeling indicates some thickening of smoke for Monday afternoon, especially in the tri state region. However, the thicker near surface appears to remain to the west of the area, so have not introduced smoke/haze as a weather element, just continuing with the 35-50% sky obscuration. Monday night pressure gradient increases as the upper plains trough and associated cold front begins to make eastward progression. High/mid clouds to increase, with warmer overnight lows in the low 50s east and mid-upper 50s in western Ohio/Indiana/Northern KY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecast temperatures are generally quite close between model guidance for this period. Some cooler air per European vs GFS on Fri and Fri night with the winner being the cooler ECMWF and a push overnight. A larger difference is noted for Sunday highs but being day 7 + in the forecast, it should not be of importance at this time. NBM guidance has apparently just split the difference here. Southwest flow aloft will follow the exiting upper level ridge, and turn more wsw early on Thursday. GFS has a weak s/w crossing the CWA on Sat, but this is not supported by ECMWF or Canadian models. The finer resolution of this very narrow and short-lived feature could very well be an anomaly at this time. Sat will see the passage of a weak upper trough. At the surface, a cold front will situate itself northwest of the CWA Wed night. There`s a large difference in placement/timing between the GFS and ECMWF beyond this. GFS is largely finished with rain Thursday evening, while ECMWF begins to move it in at this time and keeps a prevailing rain over the CWA through the overnight and Friday, exiting Fri evening. By Fri night, the GFS wraps another low up over the GtLks with a trailing cold front passing through on Sat. It has a good bit of warm sector showers beginning Fri and continuing overnight. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Despite a mostly-cloudless sky through the period, will maintain the SCT250 cloud deck in the fcst with the high thin smoke continuing to drift through the region. Winds will go light/VRB/calm early in the period, continuing into the daytime. This, combined with the cloudless sky, should promote the development of some river valley BR/FG, so have included VSBY restrictions at KLUK during the predawn hours to account for this potential. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail area-wide through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...KC/JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...KC