397
FXUS63 KIND 191911
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
211 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts peaking at 25 to 30 mph will diminish by this evening
  then return on Saturday.

- Moderating pattern early next week with well above normal
  temperatures expected for the late week.

- Near record high temperatures in the 60s possible on Christmas Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 210 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

The stratus deck continues to erode slowly from the west early this
afternoon with clearing now into the western portion of the forecast
area. A few flurries lingered over the eastern half of central
Indiana but were diminishing. Winds remained gusty but had fallen
back from the higher gusts earlier this morning. 18Z temperatures
ranged from the mid and upper teens over north central Indiana to
the lower 30s in the Wabash Valley.

A high pressure ridge will drift across the Ohio Valley into
Saturday ahead of a cold front poised to pass through the area late
Saturday into Saturday evening. The passage of the front will only
produce a speed bump for the latter half of the weekend in the surge
up in temperatures expected to resume early next week and last
through Christmas Day.

Stratus will continue to erode from the west through the afternoon
with the entire forecast area seeing increasing sunshine by late
day. The approach of the surface pressure ridge will aid in relaxing
the pressure gradient and allow for the winds to diminish into the
evening to largely light and variable conditions into the first part
of the overnight. Mainly clear skies will last into the overnight
with an increase in mid and high level clouds beginning predawn
Saturday as moisture aloft pools in advance of the aforementioned
cold front.

Those higher clouds will linger through Saturday morning but the
overall trend into the afternoon will be for increasing sunshine.
Strong warm advection will commence on the back side of the surface
ridge with S/SW winds becoming gusty once again ahead of the front
on Saturday. Clouds will again increase late day Saturday with the
frontal passage before clearing Saturday evening as deeper
subsidence overspreads the region.

Temps...lows tonight will be this evening mainly in the lower and
mid 20s with largely steady temps for much of the rest of the night.
The onset of warm advection will cause temperatures to rise slowly
just prior to daybreak. Much warmer temperatures arrive for Saturday
with low level thermals supportive of mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 210 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

The advertised pattern change to above normal temperatures over the
next 1-1.5 weeks won`t be without some short term adjustments. A
shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes into SE Canada
dragging a cold front into central Indiana on Sunday with highs
falling 5-10 deg over Saturday`s to near normal. However, after
this system the pattern will most assuredly transition to a broad
upper ridge over much of the CONUS ahead of strong troughing along
the west coast. GEFS forecasts show 500 mb height anomalies
centered over the plains into the Ohio Valley of over 200 dm from
Tuesday 12/23 through the end of the forecast period, with 850 mb
temps running 15-20 deg C above normal during the same period. NBM
guidance suggests multiple days of highs 20-30 deg above normal
for central Indiana, peaking around or just after Christmas day
with highs 62-67 F and lows 48-55. Records high maximum and
minimum temps look to be in jeopardy for Christmas Day as Indy`s
record high max is 64 F set in 1893 and record high min is 55F set
in 1971. Worth mentioning and potentially in jeopardy are the
records highs max temps for 12/26 and 12/27 in the upper 60s and
the record high min temp of 47 for 12/26.

The increasingly mild/above normal temps won`t be accompanied by
bright blue skies however, as the region remains in W-NW flow
aloft. The interaction of several weak frontal boundaries
interacting with moist south-southwesterly flow will support
multiple periods of mostly cloudy conditions through the extended
with periodic chances of light rain from Monday night through
Christmas Eve.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1148 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Impacts:

- Westerly wind gusts slowly diminishing through late day

- MVFR stratus departing in the next few hours

- Gusty S/SW winds on Saturday peaking between 25 and 30kt.

Discussion:

The back edge of the stratus deck is into far western Indiana late
this morning and will press east over the next few hours with skies
clearing. Peak wind gusts currently around 25 to 30kts will
gradually diminish through late day as a high pressure ridge
approaches from the west.

Light and variable winds are expected for most of tonight as the
ridge axis passes. Mid and high level clouds will increase along
with S/SW winds towards daybreak ahead of a cold front set to move
across the region Saturday afternoon. The pressure gradient will
once again tighten in advance of the boundary with gusts peaking at
25 to 30kts on Saturday. Stronger boundary layer flow from the
predawn hours through Saturday morning will produce low level wind
shear at the terminals.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...Ryan