738 FXUS63 KLMK 271744 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 144 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Heat Advisory this afternoon through Sunday evening over all of southern Indiana and part of central Kentucky. Heat Advisory then covers all of southern Indian and central Kentucky Monday through Wednesday. * Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening convection possible. * Heat and humidity continue into next week, but a cool down is expected after mid-week and into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Today, an upper ridge remains over much of the central CONUS with upper high pressure centered over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure sits over the northern Gulf. This will keep winds mostly out of the southwest, slightly more westward than the last couple of days. Precipitable water values continue to hover around the 2" mark throughout the Lower Ohio Valley as moisture continues to flow from the Gulf up into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Overall showers and thunderstorms will remain isolated to scattered this afternoon and evening. An area of frontogenesis is expected to stretch from the Ozarks northeast through south-central Indiana. This will be the focus of today`s activity. Precipitation will likely work it`s way south through Illinois and Indiana closer to the Interstate 64 corridor. Some isolated activity could happen farther south, but best chances are on the north side of the CWA. Instability will be relatively limited overall, and with shear remaining weak, the threat is limited. Heavy rain and lightning are the main expected impacts from any convection. Tonight, precipitation chances will decrease with the loss of diurnal heating, but after midnight into the predawn hours, some activity is possible over southeast Indiana into the Bluegrass. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 By Monday, the center of the upper high is expected to move close to Arkansas with high pressure stretching from the Rockies east off the Atlantic Coast and north into the Midwest. This will push the upper ridge farther north over much of the country, excluding the Pacific States and Northeast, resulting in warmer temperatures and higher dew points early next week. Isolated to scattered summer type convection chances continue through Tuesday, but overall most people will see mostly dry days. The heat will continue with highs in the 90s and dew points in the 70s through the middle of next week. The Heat Advisory continues unchanged through today but gets expanded to cover the whole CWA beginning Monday as heat index values begin increasing closer to 105 into the middle of next week. As the upper high continues its westward shift, upper ridging will move west with it, allowing an upper trough to drop south through the Great Lakes region. This will help to push a cold front south through the Lower Ohio Valley, bringing increased chances for precipitation and relief in the form of highs in the 80s by the end of the week. Dew points could return to the 50s to low 60s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Mostly VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle, although a couple of impacts could briefly cause reductions in cig/vis. First off, scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening could bring brief reduced vis and gusty winds. In addition, Sct-Bkn cumulus field could briefly cause some MVFR conditions before bases rise late afternoon and early evening. Outside of those two concerns, look for SSW to SW wind today with quiet conditions tonight. Tomorrow brings a similar feel to today. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ023>040-045>047-053-054-061>065-070>076. Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Monday to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ041>043-048-049-055>057-066-067- 077-078-081-082. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...BJS