420 FXUS63 KLMK 100146 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 946 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated to scattered showers and storms will diminish in coverage by this evening. Patchy fog will be possible early Thursday morning. * Warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend, with additional shower and storm chances for Saturday and especially Sunday as a cold front approaches the area. No severe weather is expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The band of showers and storms has drifted across the KY Bluegrass over the past few hours, producing isolated rainfall totals of 1-2" thanks to training storm motions. These cells have exhibited a weakening trend over the past hour or so, and it is expected that shower/storm coverage will continue to decrease between now and midnight. Given ample moisture and elevated instability, a rogue shower or storm could still develop during the early overnight hours; however, coverage should be very isolated. The main forecast challenge for tonight into Thursday morning should be figuring out how prevalent fog will be. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies along and west of I-65 as mid-level clouds gradually push to the east. Given this clearing and residual moisture near the sfc (dewpoint depressions are already small in many rural areas as of 01Z), fog should be more widespread than in previous nights. Areas which received rain this afternoon would have an increased chance of seeing fog tomorrow morning. For now, will keep with the previous forecast`s thinking of patchy fog across the area, though updates may be needed later tonight as preferred fog development areas become evident. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Temperatures should fall into the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s Thursday morning, with light and variable winds expected. Issued at 536 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Much of the LMK forecast area has remained dry this afternoon, with showers and storms mainly being confined to a narrow corridor across southern IN and north central KY, with isolated activity elsewhere. Persistent mid-level cloud cover may be limiting destabilization enough to keep activity isolated, so have nudged PoPs down slightly outside of the areas where showers and storms are ongoing. Radar suggests that the band of cells does have a bit of an outflow kick to it, and additional cells may try to develop as this outflow pushes to the south over the next few hours. Given some training of cells and elevated PWATs, we`ll need to keep an eye out on localized flooding over the next few hours before convective activity diminishes later this evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Isolated showers and storms are across the region this afternoon, which is driven by a shortwave overhead and an associated vort max. A weak frontal boundary is located across Indiana, and is expected to remain north of our area. Temps have warmed into the low 80s for most (outside of SDF), thanks to increased cloud cover over our area. With a lack of steep lapse rates and virtually no shear, storms have struggled this afternoon. Expect precip to diminish by this evening as we lose the daytime heating. Clouds will continue overnight, but should be mostly mid-level and high-level clouds. With light winds, and low level moisture lingering, patchy fog will be possible for the predawn hours. After sunrise tomorrow, any fog will burn off eventually, leading to another seasonable day with highs peaking in the upper 80s, and perhaps lower 90s for the heat islands. The aforementioned frontal boundary will remain north of the region tomorrow, with less mid- level forcing expected. This should lead to a drier day, especially to the west of I-65. Some isolated pop-ups will be possible in our east, but coverage should be minimal given the lack of forcing and weak shear. Greatest chances will be in the afternoon once again, thanks to peak heating. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A weak frontal boundary will be located north of the region Thursday night, with deeper moisture focused across the southeastern US. With this pattern in place, and a lack of strong forcing, we`ll have a dry period for Thursday night and into Friday morning. Weak sfc high pressure over the Carolinas on Friday will provide a warm SW flow into the region, which will support our sfc temps to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s, along with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. A few isolated showers and storms will be possible Friday afternoon, with the greatest chances east of I-65. Model soundings show tall and skinny CAPE profiles, with very weak flow throughout the entire column. While most of the region should remain mostly dry, some cells may pop-up in an agitated cu field. Storm motions will be quite slow, though our shear parameters will be very weak, leading to any storms to be unorganized. Any isolated coverage will diminish by Friday evening as brief upper ridging passes overhead. As we get into the weekend, another frontal boundary will be passing through the Midwest as yet another shortwave trough pivots across the High Plains. Additional shower and storm chances will be possible for the weekend, though the best chances of the long term will be on Sunday as the front slides through the forecast area. Severe weather chances are low with FROPA, given the unidirectional wind profiles and weak deep layer shear. Temps for the weekend will have a better chance of hitting the 90s, which will feel quite warm with dewpoints expected to hit the mid 70s. Additional low-end rain chances will linger into early next week as weak impulses pass overhead, but confidence beyond Sunday remains low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 738 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Continue to watch some SHRA/TSRA just north of SDF/LEX/HNB; these should fizzle over the next 2-3 hours, but can`t rule out brief impacts. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions this evening and into early Thursday morning. After 06Z tonight, rich low level moisture and light-variable winds should lead to the development of patchy fog and/or low stratus across the region. MVFR, TEMPO IFR or lower visibilities are favored at all sites except SDF, with the main window for lower flight categories expected between 08-14Z. For the day on Thursday, low level moisture should lift into a SCT-BKN cu field, with VFR conditions expected to return by midday. Winds should be fairly light out of the W/SW. SHRA/TSRA are possible Thursday afternoon, but coverage is expected to be isolated. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CSG SHORT TERM...CJP LONG TERM...CJP AVIATION...CSG