967 FXUS63 KIWX 100525 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms will slowly exit the area this evening. - A period of dry and warmer weather is expected midweek. - Shower and storm chances return late this week into this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Latest radar trends show convection struggling immensely given displacement from minor 500 J/kg MLCAPE bubble over south- central MI. While storms will continue in our E/NE zones for a few more hours with a low risk of gusty winds, did not feel it was worth continuing the watch and have therefore canceled all counties. No other changes to the going forecast with quiet weather anticipated later tonight through Wed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain on target for late this afternoon as a potent vort max tracks east through lower Michigan sending a secondary cold front through. Track of the upper wave on the southern periphery of a cold pocket aloft (-20C at 500 mb impressive for early June) favors areas along and north of the US 24 corridor in IN/MI for greatest shower/storm coverage 20-00z. The potential for a marginally severe cell or two (wind/small hail) remains given the inverted V soundings, steep lapse rates and strong flow/shear/forcing. However, lacking instability (MLCAPE ~500 j/kg) should limit the convective vigor overall. Large scale subsidence in the wake of the upper trough will promote dry/quiet wx into Tuesday and Wednesday, with Wednesday a significantly warmer day as low level southwest flow develops under building heights aloft. These warmer temperatures remain the primary wx story into Wednesday night and Thursday with the bulk of available model guidance setting up a west-to-east oriented sfc frontal boundary just north of the area under flattened quasi-zonal flow aloft. This boundary then oscillates in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Friday into the weekend with periodic chances for showers and storms (low predictability - confidence). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A quiet aviation weather period in store with VFR conditions expected to persist. Low level dry air advection has built across northern Indiana this evening in wake of secondary cold frontal boundary. Decoupling will lead to continued light west- southwest winds through the remainder of the overnight hours. With sfc high pressure centered across Missouri today, a modest westerly gradient will be maintained across northern Indiana that should support west winds of 10-15G20KT during peak daytime mixing. Winds should slacken to 5 knots or less early this evening with loss of daytime mixing. While moisture is limited, proximity of mid level cold pool across the southern Great Lakes should support VFR flat cu development today. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AGD DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Marsili