950 FXUS63 KIWX 110447 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1247 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost is likely with lows near freezing tonight; a hard freeze is possible Friday night. - Mainly dry over the next 7 days with scattered thunderstorms returning Sunday night into Monday. - Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A mainly quiet week is ahead with only a few rain chances. A weak area of low pressure is centered over central Illinois this afternoon and will be moving southeast through the Ohio Valley today. A few light showers are possible today mainly south of US 24, but most of the area should remain dry. Better moisture and forcing will stay south of the area as a series of 500mb shortwaves move through. Skies will gradually clear overnight from northwest to southeast, with lows dropping to near freezing. Frost is possible, especially in the northwest portion of our forecast area where more clearing is anticipated by daybreak tomorrow. As high pressure builds into the area on Friday and into the weekend, dry conditions expected to last through the weekend. A nice spring weekend is ahead with gradually warmer temperatures over the next several days; Highs will be near 50 degrees on Friday and in the mid to upper 60s by Sunday! Another chance for freezing temperatures comes on Friday night, when clear skies is likely to be much more widespread. With clear skies and light winds Friday night, lows are forecast to drop to between 28-31 degrees, which means a hard freeze will be possible. While the growing season has not officially started yet, some trees and plants may be susceptible to the cold. The next (and only) chance for rain arrives on Sunday night into Monday as an area of low pressure moves through the Upper Great Lakes region. A warm front should lift into the area on Sunday night, with our area well into the warm sector during the day Monday as WAA ensues. Highs will be in the lower 70s with chances for showers and storms in the afternoon as the system`s attendant cold front sweeps through. Right now, the GFS has showers and storms in the late morning/early afternoon while the ECMWF is slightly later in the afternoon. Both long range models do depict some instability and shear on Monday afternoon, however, moisture may be lacking. Depending on the timing and how favorable the convective environment is, there could potentially be some severe weather potential, especially in the southeast portion of our forecast area (south of US 24). The Storm Prediction Center currently has a Day 5 15% Risk southeast of our forecast area but we will need to monitor models in the coming days as that risk could end up also including parts of our forecast area. Post-frontal, temperatures will be cooler Tuesday. Dry conditions then return for the middle to end of next week as a ridge builds across the central CONUS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 An upper level trough dropping south from the Mid MS Valley will allow low level baroclinic zone and dry air advection to push southward across southern Great Lakes overnight. MVFR cigs are already being scoured out across far northern Indiana as of 04Z, and this trend will continue southward with improving conditions at KFWA expected roughly in the 12Z-14Z timeframe. Cigs may temporarily drop below 2000 ft at KFWA before this time. A quiet aviation forecast in store after the low clouds clear out with broad synoptic scale subsidence and dry airmass leading to VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. North to northeast winds around 10 knots expected through the day as low level ridge axis extends from northern Great Lakes into the southern Plains today. Approach of this ridge axis will eventually lead to light and variable winds late tonight. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Marsili