615 FXUS63 KIWX 141035 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 635 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Have removed chances for rain and isolated thunderstorm today. - Mild today with highs around 65 to 70, turning cooler Tuesday. - Strong to severe storms possible Friday into Friday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 The initial environment remained quite dry in the low levels. Have removed rain chances for today given the upper low remaining west of the area and the front well to the south near the Ohio River. The upper low will move east and bring chances for mostly light showers to the forecast area early Tuesday. There will be a break in the precipitation from late Tuesday into Thursday before chances increase for severe thunderstorms. An elevated mixed layer (EML) is expected to arrive Thursday night and be over the area Friday and persist over the area Saturday. The EML may be initially capped near the base of the inversion, but should accentuate severe storms chances Friday and Friday night. Given the dynamics of the EML with a potential cap >2.0C it appears the best chances for severe thunderstorms will be late in the day Friday and into Friday evening. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 635 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Broad/weak cold front will cross the area today but low levels remain too dry and stable to support any precip. VFR conditions will persist into the late evening with primarily just high clouds. Winds from the west will gust up to 30 knots through much of the period. Midlevel shortwave and associated increase in low level cyclonic flow/CAA may support some MVFR ceilings and SCT showers at the very end of this forecast period but will hold off on mentioning for now given low confidence. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...AGD