768
FXUS63 KIWX 082257
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
657 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather pattern continues through the rest of the work
  week.

* Seasonable temperatures and large diurnal temperature swings
  through Thursday, warming back well into the 70s to near 80 by
  Friday.

* Some fire weather concerns possible on Friday, but of low
  confidence at this time.

* Low rain chances return for the second half of the weekend and
  turning much cooler for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Quiet pattern continues at least through the end of the work
week. A strong northwesterly flow aloft on the back side of a
vigorous Canadian upper level low over southern Hudson Bay will
bring periods of breezy to gusty winds for mainly the northern
and eastern portions of the CWA through this evening. This will
allow for decent mixing and keep overnight low temperatures
mainly in the lower 40s, in northeastern IN and northwestern OH
lows will get into the upper 30s, where there could be an
isolated instance of frost, especially in low lying areas. And
again this is still unlikely with the mixing available.

Diurnal temperature swings will be increased over the next few
days with lows in the 40s and highs in the low 70s to upper 60s
in the northern portions of the CWA. A ridge axis over a low
amplitude but broad ridge over the southern US will push into
the area on Friday and will bring a strong southwesterly flow
which will produce a short-lived surge of warmth with highs in
the lower 80s/upper 70s across the area. With the gusty winds
and dry airmass (RH mainly in the 30s) will need to monitor for
any fire weather concerns. However, by Saturday a northwesterly
flow aloft returns ahead of a disturbance out of
Alberta/Saskatchewan bringing a shot of cooler air and increased
chances of rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible
by Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will again be in the lower
70s but by early next week highs only in the 50s on Monday and
Tuesday and lows into the mid to lower 30s on Tuesday morning.
This will bring a decent chance at the first widespread frost
of the season early Tuesday morning and even a few lake effect
rain showers near Lake Michigan shores where temperatures will
be kept a bit warmer with the lake temperatures in the 60s. Lows
near Lake Michigan will remain in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Surface high pressure across the Midwest and lower Great Lakes
will result in clear skies and light winds overnight and into
the day on Wednesday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Johnson